Concerns raised over banks' reliance on state guarantee

Friday, 30 July 2010

Fitch became the latest ratings agency to say it is concerned about Irish banks because of Finance Minister Brian Lenihan's bank guarantee scheme ending in December.

Matthew Taylor, a senior director in Fitch Ratings' financial institutions team, said: "Funding remains tight and there is uncertainty over how the banks will refinance when the blanket guarantee scheme ends.

"Overall, however, Fitch considers that their funding situation will remain manageable, helped by the extension of a less comprehensive guarantee scheme until the end of 2010 and access to ECB funding."

Mr Lenihan has said he would like to extend most of the guarantees, but has hinted that not all lenders will be covered under the new guarantee.

Profit at Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish will be under pressure this year even when the cost of transferring loans to NAMA is excluded, Mr Taylor added. Loan impairment charges are likely to decline but remain meaningful, while restructuring charges are likely to depress pre-tax profit.

For 2011, expectations of gradual improvement in the economy, a reduction in loan impairment charges and the absence of losses on the sale of loans to NAMA should all contribute to a significantly better, if still muted, performance.

Irish banks are not the only lenders causing concern at the moment. A Fitch survey earlier this week showed investors are becoming increasingly concerned that European banks may struggle to refinance their debt that matures over the next 12 months.

Fitch said yesterday that First Trust parent Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland may be helped by improved investor confidence after they both passed recent stress tests.

"Early signs suggest that investor confidence has since improved towards the banks which, if maintained, may ease the banks' access to funding," Mr Taylor said.

However, Mr Taylor added that the continuing reliance of the banks on the State guarantee "raises questions for investors who have concerns over the dependability of the guarantees."

In Pictures: CIPR PRide Awards

In Pictures: CIPR PRide Awards

Pub of the Year Awards

Digital Advertising Awards Gala

Digital Advertising Awards Gala

Digital Advertising Awards Gala

Carbon Rankings - UK's Top 100 Firms

Click here for rankings and video

TeleBest: World's most powerful logos

eleBest: World's most powerful logos

Click here to launch gallery

NI's Top 100 Companies 2011

Top 100 Companies

Who's up and who's down in 2011

In pictures: Doing the business

  • PMST Apprentice of the Year 2011
  • Graham Dillon of Tandragee, Co Armagh (centre), accepts the Adult Apprentice Award: Best Attendance at the PMST Apprentice of the Year 2011 ceremony held this week in Belfast City Hall. Also pictured are Keith Poole (left) of CHC Group, Craigavon, who employ Graham, and Nick Hayward of category sponser ATL
  • Ciara Walls of Whitehead, Co Antrim (centre), accepts the Adult Apprentice Award: Most Consistently High Exam Results, at the PMST Apprentice of the Year 2011 ceremony held this week in Belfast City Hall. Also pictured is Professor Jackie McCoy (right) of the University of Ulster, the category sponsor, and Nicola Cherry of Fusion Heating of Killyleagh, Co Down, who employ Ciara

Cream of the crop in the business world

BT Business TV


Business Digest by Email


Sign up for your free weekly business newsletter

Latest Comments