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I screwed up over oil, says Ryanair boss O’Leary

Friday, 15 August 2008

An uncharacteristically repentant Michael O'Leary has admitted he had “screwed up” by failing to insulate Ryanair against massive rises in the price of oil.

The Irish multi-millionaire's poor calls on the black stuff contributed to an 85% plunge in his airline's profits for the first quarter, and could see Ryanair soon report its first annual loss in 20 years.

“Clearly anybody who didn't hedge oil a year ago at €70 couldn't possibly claim that they were on top of their game,” the Mullingar man told a Press conference, adding that he'd “screwed up in the last year”.

Mr O'Leary is credited with turning Ryanair from a loss-making regional airline into Europe's largest and most profitable airline, while amassing a €400m personal fortune in the process.

The chief executive said it was a “good thing” that he is one of Ryanair’s biggest shareholders because when he messes up or loses his touch it “costs me more money than almost every other shareholder”.

While falling oil prices mean there's “every chance” Ryanair's 2009 results could be better than the airline's recent forecasts, the airline is not changing its full-year guidance on the back of recent oil movements, Mr O'Leary added.

The Ryanair boss also confirmed his airline has not been asked for an opinion on Aer Lingus' next chairman, despite the low-cost carrier's 29.82% stake in its competitor.

Mr O'Leary's comments came as he unveiled a 5 million seat sale, in testament to Ryanair's strategy of keeping passenger numbers up by using sales to tempt recession-weary consumers into the air.

That strategy was unveiled in July, when Ryanair said fares could drop 5% this year rather than rising by the same amount, leaving the airline exposed to full-year losses of up to €60m if oil remains at $130.

That missive prompted an immediate €1.2bn collapse in the airline's share price, as the market contemplated both the stunning change in fare outlook and Ryanair's first loss as a quoted company. Since then, however, oil has fallen from highs of $147 to below $120.

Asked about the impact of the improving oil environment, Mr O'Leary replied “our guidance couldn't be simpler”.

“If oil is $130 for the winter and the fares fall by 5% we'll be somewhere between break even and a small loss, if oil is lower it will be better than that, if fares rise it will be better than that,” he added.

“Given the movements in oil, there's every chance it will be better than that, but we're not changing our guidance.”

Mr O'Leary said Ryanair has not hedged any oil since it reported first-quarter results in late July, because “the price of oil is still falling”. At the end of July, the airline had hedged 90% of its September fuel at $129 a barrel, and 80% of third-quarter fuel at $124 a barrel.

Mr O’Leary also vowed to continue cancelling bookings made through rival websites despite the Republic’s National Consumer Agency writing to the airline last week asking if it would honour the bookings.

Mr O’Leary said the airline was now cancelling “between 400 and 450” per day after they were booked in this way.

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