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Irish economy 'will bounce back and lead Europe within a decade'

Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Irish economists may be wringing their hands in despair but a leading US expert believes the Republic's economy will bounce back and "lead Europe within a decade".

Dr Robert E Kennedy thinks the Irish Republic will outperform its European rivals once again within the space of 10 years.

He predicted that the country will enjoy growth rates of around 3pc and he would put "big money" on Ireland doing better than larger countries like Germany and France.

The former adviser to the US government and head of business administration at the University of Michigan makes his optimistic predictions in a new book on outsourcing in the global economy.

He does, however, warn that the country must accept that assembly-line manufacturing will leave the country for eastern Europe and other labour markets.

This will happen because the Republic has very high labour costs compared to central and eastern Europe.

He calculated that the average wage if you divide GDP by population in Ireland is around €37,000, while in Poland it is just €8,190.

"So, in terms of low-skilled jobs involving physically assembling computer parts, Ireland can't compete," he said.

"However, where Ireland has an edge is in its highly skilled, educated workforce. Dell, for instance, is keeping most of its service and administrative base in Ireland."

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To those who can't read, Dell is shedding its manufacturing employees and keeping its r+d depts., the doctor's very point. He also does not speak about the republic becoming a powerhouse but rather income per head. Why does everything have to be reduced by some side or other to Irl.v. UK arguments.

Posted by Seamus Wilkinson | 13.02.09, 19:34 GMT

Gregory, did you actually read the article? The economist clearly makes a distinction between service/administrative functions (which will stay/increase as the economy recovers) and assembly line roles (which will leave). The 2,000 Dell jobs that went were on the assembly line. What is your point?!

Posted by Chris | 13.02.09, 09:43 GMT

It will take 30 years to reverse the damage done by the economic mismanagement of Bertie Ahern & the Soldiers of Destiny. They floored the accelerator on the economy & never once pulled back, even when a blind man could see the economy there was burning itself up. To say Ireland will bounce back in 10 years is rubbish. The banks would all be gone if not for the government raiding the pension fund of future generations. Ireland is a joke. I'm still flabbergasted as to how the Gombeen men & women of Irish political life pulled the wool over the ECB for so many years. Astonishing.

Posted by LKSteve | 12.02.09, 08:31 GMT

Well Barry, how qualified are you to support Dr Kennedy's claims? He himself admits that the Republic will lose lots of business to Eastern Europe, and states that Ireland has the edge because of companies such as Dell, who have just made most of their workforce redundant. I'm no expert, but sacking your workforce isn't usually seen as an indicator of economic success!

Posted by Gregory Langton | 15.01.09, 09:57 GMT

Wow look at all the economic experts lined up to dismiss this story. We become saturated with stories about the economy and suddenly you are all experts. Amazing. So you are all in a position now to dismiss someone, a Doctor in the field no less when he gives his expert opinion! Can I call on you lot for sound financial advise in the future as you are so experienced in world economics? I wonder if Dr. Kennedy had predicted that the mighty U.K would become a European leader would you all be as rabid in your condemnations?

Posted by Barry | 14.01.09, 15:52 GMT

Companies like Dell are the future eh? Didn't they recently shed 2000 jobs in the Republic? Doesn't seem too convincing to me, more like wishful thinking! Thanks Dr Kennedy, but I'll stick with the United Kingdom and it's G8 membership for my 'economic powerhouse' fix, things mightn't be great now but we all know who the big boys are!

Posted by Dave | 13.01.09, 20:14 GMT