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Opec warns oil prices could rocket to $500 a barrel

Monday, 28 July 2008

The nightmare scenario of oil reaching $500 a barrel within a few years was raised at the weekend by a member of OPEC's governing council.

It would mean a fourfold increase from current prices and ends any hope the ECB has of getting inflation under control.

Such a rise would also pose a serious threat to economic growth in oil importing countries.

Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi has warned oil prices could reach as high as $500 per barrel in a few years' time if the US dollar falls further and political tension worsens.

"If the dollar's value continues to decrease and if the political crisis becomes worse, the oil price would reach up to $500," Mohammad Ali Khatibi said in an interview published on Saturday.

"If there is another war in the region, it will not only be Iran's oil not reaching the market, but rather the oil of the whole region would be cut from the market," Khatibi said.

"In that case, we will not have a price rise. We will have a price explosion."

Mr Khatibi made the comments in response to a query about the possibility of oil reaching just $200 per barrel in the next two or three years.

Iran gets daily revenue of about $300m from exports of crude oil, exporting some 2.5 million barrels of oil a day at an average price of $120, according to the Iranian oil ministry

Attempts by some producing countries, like Russia, to trade oil in euros rather than dollars have found little support, with middle eastern countries that dominate OPEC more than happy to continue using the US currency.

Oil dropped $2 to a fresh seven-week low of just over $123 a barrel on Friday, continuing a decline that has knocked more than $24 off crude in two weeks.

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What? No, Opec wouldn't do that. $500/barrel is way to high, but if Iran, Iraq, and Venesuala are overcome from US's military might, the results would be something like $500/barrel; sure.

Posted by TEST | 29.07.08, 23:03 GMT

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Time AIPAC stops interfering in the the Arab business!!!!

Posted by Malik | 29.07.08, 14:29 GMT

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Oil exporters with surging population growth are consuming more of their own oil at a time when aggregate world demand is increasing. Any reduction in demand in the West is being more than compensated for by consumption in the East AKA Chindia. China, to keep its populace under control, " a chicken in every wok and a car in every garage " will maintain its current energy consumption growth path. The major oil fields are old and depleting rapidly eg Cantarell. $500 is feasible - a war in the ME which closes the straits of Hormuz and we are in huge trouble.

Posted by Realist | 29.07.08, 10:57 GMT

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Who in their right mind would ever believe Oil could reach that price. Someone is smokin some good tobakee. Here is what the experts think. Oil prices will continue to drop because this is an election year. There has also been some movement on a new Drill Bill by president Bush and although this will not hav any immediate effect it will send a message to OPEC and the world that the US is moving towards a more self sufficient stance in energy management.Slowing demand for oil + New Trade legislation + election year + alternative energy + a stronger dollar = Bad news for Oil speculators

Posted by BIGFOOT | 28.07.08, 15:12 GMT

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