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Worst of Northern Ireland recession ‘now gone’
Monday, 11 May 2009
The worst of the recession has been and gone in Northern Ireland, new figures indicated today.
While business activity in the region continues to fall, and at a rate faster than the rest of the UK, the downturn is past its peak, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey.
April’s drop in output was the least marked for eight months and new business fell at a much slower rate, the PMI found. And though the labour market continued to contract, job shedding was less severe than that seen in the last two financial quarters.
Senior economist with the Ulster Bank Richard Ramsey said there were signs the economic climate was improving.
“The fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 have witnessed severe contractions in economic activity the world over,” he said.
“However, a range of indicators, including the PMIs, suggest that the worst is now behind us.
“This theme is also apparent in the latest PMI for Northern Ireland with five of the six indicators improving in April. Indeed, the latest survey indicates the highest reading for business activity in eight months. This indicates that the pace of economic decline is slowing. That said, the PMI still indicates that Northern Ireland’s private sector continues to contract at a more rapid rate than any other UK region and is some 10 index points below the UK reading.
“Meanwhile, the pace of decline in employment levels has also eased and is broadly in line with the UK as a whole. However, this is still consistent with significant job losses across all sectors of the economy.”
But Mr Ramsey warned that Northern Ireland businesses were suffering more as a result of the drop in value of sterling. “One key difference between the Northern Ireland and UK PMIs concerns inflationary pressures. After a few months of falling input costs, Northern Ireland firms have reported rises in their cost base for the second month in a row. Conversely, UK firms are still reporting an easing in cost pressures.
“This suggests the weakness of sterling is having more impact on Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK. Given that Northern Ireland is the only part of the UK to share a land-border with the Eurozone — the Republic of Ireland — this isn’t surprising.”
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Agree totally with Belfast Boy.
When this guy said last year the property market had further to fall he was patted on the back by the doomsday brigade.
If the report don't fit with your agenda tell everyone the "expert" is wrong, tut tut.
rock on!
Posted by RnR | 12.05.09, 13:22 GMT
"Senior economist with the Ulster Bank Richard Ramsey said there were signs the economic climate was improving. " Utter rubbish - House price inflation in NI was the highest in Europe, the impact of the collapse of the Irish economy has to be truely felt. America is about to close tax breaks for companies and N.I economy is utterly dependeny on state workers. Where is the economic data to support this?
Posted by Norn-Iron.com | 12.05.09, 00:27 GMT
How to mislead with semantics.
Saying that the rate at which things are getting worse has peaked is not the same as the worst is behind us.
Posted by Ken | 11.05.09, 16:30 GMT
YAY!! Break out the champagne and strippers!
Posted by McD | 11.05.09, 14:17 GMT
Yeah booby and nigel, lets be as pessimistic as possible, then hopeful more people will lose money.
Markets run on perception as much as anything else!
Posted by MiHe | 11.05.09, 13:17 GMT
Some people seem to be afraid of a recovery of any kind. When Richard Ramsey commented on the housing market he was hailed as a hero. hey ho!
Posted by Belfast Boy | 11.05.09, 13:11 GMT
one swallow made my summer once bobby so who knows?
Posted by soarer | 11.05.09, 13:06 GMT
Another fiction from the Ulster Bank. What planet are they on? The problems are still there and have to be tackled.
Posted by john | 11.05.09, 12:30 GMT
If things are getting worse (by every measure mentioned above) and the necessary job cuts in NI's public sector are still to come through - saying that "worst is now behind us" is hopelessly niave.
One swallow doesn't make a summer - I'll be reading this same story in a year's time and 2 year's time.
If we have the courage admit that NI's economy has been a failure and welcome the recession as an opportunity to reshape our economy - that is the only chance there is that NI will move away from being a failed state.
Pretending that things aren't that bad, lulls us into a false sense of security. The message here "no need to worry - it's not our problem, things aren't that bad and it'll be alright in the end" robs us of any personal responsibilty or duty to the economy, the people here and a self determining future.
Posted by bobby d'hofter | 11.05.09, 11:32 GMT
More nonsense from the banks and even worse that this paper should print this.......it must be great for us to have come through the GLOBAL RECESSION so quickly and relatively unscathed.....imagine all those nobel prize winning economists having gotten it so wrong and our local financiers and economists getting it so right....... Hand back your awards is what I say to the Noble prize winners!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by nigel69 | 11.05.09, 09:35 GMT