Belfast Telegraph

Friday 26 December 2014

Bank’s QE policy ‘not impacting on economy’

Households are saving more and trying to pay off debt at the fastest pace in years, raising concerns that the Bank of England's policy of Quantitative Easing — directly injecting some £175bn into the economy — is not yet having as dramatic an impact on spending and credit growth as some might have hoped.

For the second month running, consumers overall paid back more than they owed on their consumer debts, said the bank.

Consumer credit fell by a net £300m, with an increase in credit card lending of £200m offset by a £500m drop in personal loans and advances.

Including mortgages, net lending to households rose by £700m in August following the first ever monthly fall in July.

Mortgage approvals fell marginally to 52,317 from 52,404 levels that analysts say are well below those needed for a sustained trend of rising house prices. Net new borrowing for home purchases rose by £1bn in August, from extremely low levels.

Commenting on the latest news, David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “It is important for the Bank of England to address the dangerous weakness in bank lending, and the Government must take steps to curb falls in employment. The main priority is to ensure that businesses are able to return the economy to sustainable growth as early as possible.”

The Bank of England organised a seminar for city economists yesterday at which it indicated that it does not plan imminent changes to the way it treats the reserves held by commercial banks at the bank. Speculation has been rife that the bank will soon introduce “negative interest rates” to, encourage the banks to lend those reserves rather than hoard them.

Figures released yesterday on the growth of “broad money” suggest that lending has responded sluggishly to the bank's stimulus, although a general reduction in glit yields may have eased the cost of lendning, and prompted a marked increase in bond and equity fund raising by larger firms.

Colin Ellis, UK economist at Daiwa Securities commented: “We think the case has been made for the Monetary Policy Committee to increase its QE programme — although probably not before November. Whether the MPC agrees remains to be seen — if anything, the signals from the bank, such as Governor King's remarks at the Treasury Committee, suggest that the bank is rather more optimistic than us about the impact of QE.”

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