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Economic growth forecast to 'rapidly deteriorate' following Brexit vote

Published 07/07/2016

Experts predict that growth in the UK economy will contract following the Brexit vote
Experts predict that growth in the UK economy will contract following the Brexit vote

The British economy experienced "intensifying contraction" in June, and growth over the next few months is forecast to rapidly deteriorate following the Brexit vote, a respected economic think-tank has said.

GDP estimates from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) show that output grew by 0.6% in the three months to June, but that was largely due to a strong April skewing the figures.

Jack Meaning, research fellow at NIESR, said: "At first glance, this represents a robust rate of quarterly growth for the UK economy.

"However, the quarterly figure masks an important within-quarter pattern. Our monthly estimates suggest that April saw a large expansion in GDP, which then stagnated in May.

"The estimate for June is one of an intensifying contraction across the board, but this is not enough to offset the very strong April numbers.

"What it does suggest is that when April drops out of the three-month calculation, we should see a quick deterioration of growth - especially if the estimated contraction in June persists or accelerates into July and beyond."

Economists have been revising down forecasts for UK GDP since the day of the referendum's result, with most predicting a recession.

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