Recession to end by 2014, says forecast
The UK downturn is finally expected to be left behind next year as the size of the economy surpasses its pre-recession peak, according to a new forecast upgrading prospects for growth.
The prediction from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) brings forward the likely date to the third quarter of 2014.
It would mark the first time that UK gross domestic product has climbed back to the peak it reached in the first quarter of 2008.
While this would still mean that it has taken more than six years just to return the economy to the position it was in before it nosedived, it would abate fears of a lost decade.
The forecast comes amid a recent pattern of accelerating growth, which reached 0.8% in the third quarter of this year.
A year ago, amid a much gloomier picture for the economy, the BCC predicted the pre-recession peak would not be reached until 2016.
This was brought forward in August to the first quarter of 2015 but has now been revised again. We can do much better, and with the right policies in place, can expect a much stronger recovery in the second half of the decade.