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Much interest, but rate is likely to stay at 0.5%

By David Elliot
Thursday, 9 February 2012

Long gone are the days when we looked forward to interest rate day with a sense of anticipation and excitement. In the current economic environment the chances of a change to the all-time low 0.5% rate are slimmer than the margins most companies have to contend with these days.

More quantitative easing - printing money to you and me - looks a strong possibility but you can't help thinking the monetary policy committee might be looking at the markets and thinking we're not as bad as everyone makes out.

Take the FTSE 100. The London index is currently sitting around 700 points higher than its lowest point at the end of November 2011. That's a jump of 12% or, more accurately, a steady climb, one which would make you feel the gains are here to stay rather than a knee-jerk reaction.

All this upward progress despite the still unresolved crisis in the eurozone may make the MPC think the markets know something they're not telling the rest of us who are struggling in an economy which doesn't seem to have improved by 12% since November. In that case there won't be any more quantitative easing.

Of course, all this brouhaha (an odd choice of word but one which was spied last week in the headline of a Wall Street Journal story and so we feel justified in using it in this column) on our behalf might be for nothing. If you're reading this after midday then you'll know what Mervyn King and his rabble of merry bankers have decided to do.

If they have upped the rate of quantitative easing then we need to be prepared for the consequences because releasing more money into the economy risks driving up inflation just when we've managed to get it under control. But in saying that it should provide a short-term boost for the economy which we can be thankful for.

If they haven't then we can take comfort in the performance of the stock market and hope its bullish nature rubs off on the rest of us.

Certainly we could do with a bit of positivity, as latest figures from the construction sector show.

It, like many sectors in Northern Ireland, will be particularly hard hit by the cut in public sector spending.

Finding ways and means of replacing this once-lucrative revenue stream is difficult and places even more importance on exporting in the future.

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