belfasttelegraph

Sunday 19 May 2013

Outlook is still grim for UK plc

From measly to downright pathetic. Not this column's sentiments when it finds itself squeezed into a corner, but an accurate description of growth in the UK economy in the second quarter of 2011.

First we were dancing in the aisles at getting growth in GDP of 0.2%. It wasn't much but it was a couple of points off being downright embarrassing. And then came the revised figures.

It turns out the Office for National Statistics was a bit optimistic in its initial assessment, and revised its growth figure down to 0.1%.

"Pah," you say, "arguing over a tenth of 1%? Hardly worth getting worked up about."

Well yes, it would be a lot less painful had it been revised down from, say, 4% to 3.9% but the latest haircut pretty much represents a halving of an already paltry figure.

In fact, trying to pass off an increase in GDP of 0.1% as growth is akin to calling a snail fast: it's better than standing still but only just.

But of course we in Northern Ireland can only eye the overall UK figure with envy, standing as we do with an economy still contracting and yet to pull itself out of recession.

Economists are increasingly worried that the knock-on effects of a global downturn will eat into our economic vigour before long. Official figures won't tell you exactly how badly we'll be hit because regional GDP is always retrospective, with 2010 figures not revealed until 2011.

In the meantime, David Cameron is urging us all to 'show some fight'.

He acknowledges that a double dip recession is close, but is adamant he won't tamper with the deficit reduction schedule.

Oh, and he wants us to pay down our debts. You would nearly be persuaded that the Government had learned a lesson after hearing this statement.

Generally we're told to spend our way out of recession but this sounds relatively level-headed. Wonders will never cease.

Let's not end on a down note. UK construction was the fastest growing sector. With any luck that will boost Northern Ireland's construction sector.

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