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View from London
Damage to growth has been done
One year on, how does it feel? How does it feel to know that you can't sell
your house? That you can't get a loan from the bank to buy a house or, for
that matter, anything else? That unemployment is on its way up?
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Inside View from London
No ‘all for one and one for all’ in Greek tragedy
Tuesday, 9 February 2010
It's the politics, stupid. After years in which market forces dominated, in
which economies were supposedly self-regulating and in which the nation
state appeared increasingly impotent, markets are now struggling with the
return of what might be called ‘political economy’.
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Shadow from the east looms over Davos leaders
Tuesday, 2 February 2010
On arriving in Davos on Tuesday, I detected a mood of cautious optimism. Yet,
as the week progressed, the mood of this gathering of supposedly strategic
long-term thinkers darkened.
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Why folks on the Hill are fed up with the Fed ...
Tuesday, 26 January 2010
All of a sudden, financial markets look sickly. From a Western perspective,
it's not difficult to see why.
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When markets are happy we should be wary
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
If there's one thing which has got policymakers excited over the last few
months, it's the rally in stock markets across the world.
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We're out of the woods but still lost in the forest
Tuesday, 12 January 2010
Many years ago, I specialised in coverage of the Japanese economy. In 1990,
the big worry was inflation. Although Japan's stock market had begun its
long journey south, investors thought earlier overheating would lead to big
price increases.
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A case of paradise lost and austerity being postponed
Tuesday, 15 December 2009
Contrary to popular opinion, the UK gilt market — the market in government
IOUs —has not yet collapsed, despite the ongoing increase in national debt.
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Thriving China is re-writing trade script for all of us
Tuesday, 8 December 2009
In recessions past, the western economies exported their problems to countries
elsewhere in the world. As the US and European economies tripped up, so
their demand for raw materials would drop.
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Dubai's difficulty is a warning to all big spenders
Tuesday, 1 December 2009
November 2009 will surely go down as one of those great months of mystery.
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I’ll raise my hat if someone caps bank leverage
Tuesday, 24 November 2009
Just as the world suffered grievously from the banking sector's ability to
invent complex securities that no one understood, and thus were impossible
to manage or value, are we now about to create a regulatory system that is
also too complicated to understand?
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There's a lot of wishful thinking in this recovery
Tuesday, 17 November 2009
Just when can we be sure that economic recovery is in the bag? The world
economy seems to be in a much better place today than it was at the
beginning of the year.
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Now we need the emerging nations to start shopping
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
Only a few years ago, the world economy was dominated by the US. Nowadays, the
evidence suggests the US is increasingly dependent on the rest of the world.
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Euro’s strength can’t heal rifts between rich and poor
Tuesday, 3 November 2009
There has been plenty of speculation about the dollar and poor old sterling
recently — but how has the euro fared in its first big test?
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Sense of foreboding grows as the recession lingers on
Tuesday, 27 October 2009
Half-a-dozen quarters on, the UK is still in recession. The 0.4% drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year left economists dumbfounded. Where were the green shoots? Why was recovery yet to materialise? Why had the efforts of policymakers - interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, big budget deficits, a drop in sterling - not paid off?
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Not quite the same, but the 80s can still teach us a thing or two
Tuesday, 20 October 2009
No pain, no gain. That is the message coming from the Conservatives and, for that matter, from Labour too. The UK's public finances are in a parlous state. Spending is going to be slashed. Taxes are going to rise. And our political leaders, both current and those-in-waiting, are hoping that a dose of tough medicine now will form the foundations of the next recovery.
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US is playing a dangerous game with difficult dollar
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
It's no great surprise that, in Britain, the collapse of the dollar has gone
largely unnoticed. Sterling has fallen even further.
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The four most expensive words: ‘This time it’s different’... is it?
Tuesday, 6 October 2009
In a typical banking crisis, the economy stumbles and never gets its old pace
back.
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Devaluation won't change much
Tuesday, 29 September 2009
Devaluation is a dirty word. It stinks of failure. Every so often, the British economy succumbs, most famously in 1949, 1967 and 1992. Each time, as the UK lost its economic footing and sterling collapsed, the people of Britain were left to inhale the stench of political desperation. Given all this, it's fortunate that the UK no longer pegs its exchange rate to anything in particular.
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Obama must resist the call of protectionism ahead of the G20
Tuesday, 22 September 2009
The internal combustion engine was not invented in the US. With the honourable
exception of Mario Andretti, Americans tend to ignore Formula 1. General
Motors and Ford no longer produce the iconic brands of yesteryear. On his
new album, Jay-Z talks about “Cruisin' down 8th Street, off-white Lexus
drivin' so slow”, no doubt keeping Toyota very happy but leaving Detroit
rather sad.
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More caution with public finances may limit future risks
Tuesday, 15 September 2009
Running the economy is no easy task. Sometimes, I get the impression that
policymakers think there is some magic formula which, once unlocked, will
allow strong growth, low inflation and full employment to continue
indefinitely.
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What happens to us if everyone rushes for the financial exit?
Tuesday, 8 September 2009
The beads of sweat must have been building up on Gordon Brown's brow last
week. What if the leaders of other nations suddenly decided to raise taxes,
to cut public spending or to raise interest rates to bring last year's
policy stimulus to a close?
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