In the spring of 2010 the assessment made from the previous edition of the Top 100 businesses was that the economy was displaying some ‘green shoots’ of recovery but that there were only tentative signs of economic growth. The hope was that during 2010 there would be a strengthening recovery.

How inadequate was the appreciation of the continuing depths of recession!

In early 2011, there are ‘green shoots’ to be found but the rate of expansion has been slow and the immediate prospects are modest.

Not every business has been hit hard by the changing business environment. Significant turnover increases have been recorded for a diverse range of firms including Allstate, Firstsource, Dunbia, Michelin, Randox, Montupet, Nacco Materials Handling, Donnelly Garages, Chain Reaction and H&J Martin. Encouragingly, eight of this group are important exporters who are capturing stronger order books.

Of course, some businesses have seen turnover fall sharply. Some of the larger decreases have been in FG Wilson, Ballyvesey Holdings, Teleperformance, HCL BPO, John Graham, BE Aerospace, Acheson and Glover, Global e-mail co., Retlan, Henry group, McLaughlin and Harvey, Howden (UK), Clearway Holdings, Terex GB and Ards Holdings.

Some of these firms are successful exporters for whom an international recovery would be a key feature. Significantly, a group of constructionrelated companies is in evidence.

Any assessment of the changing state of the economy must try to take account of the trading position and profits of the commercial banks and their influence on the availability of funds to support other businesses. On both counts, 2010 was restrained.

The banks, some influenced by headquarter policies set in London or Dublin, have found it necessary to continue to make provision for non-performing loans. In largest part, the banking provisions stem from the continued very depressed state of the property market, whether residential or commercial.

On the evidence that is available, the day-to-day operations of the banks have begun to rebuild profits towards more normal levels. For them, positive operating profits have been more than offset by the scale of exceptional provisions.

The private sector is coping with the impact of a deeper recession than was forecast. It continues to show an ability to compete in national and international markets. A critical indicator of adaptability has been the number of construction businesses that have gained external contracts. This reflects well on their entrepreneurial flair and their cost competitiveness.

Similarly, the number of manufacturers and suppliers of tradable services that have been pushing up their turnover is encouraging.

Northern Ireland is trading, patiently, through a difficult recession. Possibly there is some basis for an expectation that the green shoots will become stronger and a private sector recovery will be a counter to the more restricted activity in the public sector.