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Ed Curran: After Paisley, what next?

Editor-in-chief Edmund Curran has followed the career of DUP leader Ian Paisley from the Sixties to yesterday's announcement that he was bowing out as First Minister. He assesses his incredible journey to power-sharing and asks what the political future holds without him centrestage?

Wednesday, 5 March 2008

My first encounter with a young Ian Paisley was witnessing him preaching in the Ulster Hall in the early Sixties when I was a student. I remember writing an article for the Queen's University magazine, Gown, condemning him out of hand as a rabble-rouser.

I was not alone. The media, in general, at that time had it in for him. I never met a journalist in those days who had a good word to say about him. He was seen by many as a pariah, a zealot relic from the 17th century.

I remember the Sunday Times ran an opinion poll claiming that he would lose his first electoral contest against the then Prime Minister, Captain Terence O'Neill, by a big margin. He didn't win but he was only narrowly defeated. The pollster concluded that when it came to asking questions about supporting extremists, (as Paisley was categorised), the people of Northern Ireland had lied blatantly.

Onwards and upwards went Paisley. To Westminster and to the European Parliament.

I remember listening to a middle class group in the early seventies and everyone of them was condemning him.

Yet, on the law of averages, one in three of the group had probably voted for him, such was his enormous support in the European election.

I have so many personal memories of Paisley. Of following so many of his anti civil rights rallies, as a young reporter, and sensing how easily he could whip up a mob.

Of being in his Martyr's Memorial Church in Belfast on Sunday mornings listening to his masterful oratory win over the faithful in packed pews.

Of an ashen-faced Captain Terence O'Neill standing in the hallway of the Unionist headquarters in Glengall St, Belfast, shattered by Paisley's electoral assault on him. And of all the other Unionist leaders, Chichester-Clark, Faulkner, West and Molyneaux, one by one, beaten into submission by him.

We can look back on Ian Paisley's career ad infinitum. We can rail against his intransigence over so many years. Indeed, we can easily conclude that his firebrand Protestantism did no favours for the image of Northern Ireland in the eyes of the outside world.

Yet for all that, there is only one question that really matters on his impending retirement. Will the power-sharing Stormont Executive survive beyond the few weeks he has left in office?

The past is past and we are all witnesses to the fact that Paisley eventually stepped up to the mark and, in horse racing parlance, defied his previous form.

It doesn't matter how long it took him to cross the Rubicon or take the road to Damascus. The fact is he did it and the world at large, praises him for that.

In time Ian Paisley will tell us why he did what he did.

Was it because his wife Eileen said it was the right thing to do?

Was it because Tony Blair prevailed upon him in his latter years? Or was it because the prospect of power and respectful recognition proved too much for him to reject beyond his 80th year? Whatever the reason, Paisley's retirement places Northern Ireland at another crossroads. The politics of Stormont is not quite as simple as choosing his replacement because there remain at least two types of unionism. Fundamentalist or pragmatist? And the question that lies ahead is: which is it to be?

A future without Ian Paisley raises concerns for the party he leads. Will it remain intact under a new pragmatic leader such as Peter Robinson, or will the strains and stresses evident recently in the by-election at Banbridge raise themselves to a new level? What of those within the Democratic Unionist Party who kept their heads down while Paisley was in charge but whose conscience remains uneasy over dealings with Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams? The history of Ulster unionism since Ian Paisley's emergence in the Sixties has been of splits and schisms. I once asked James Molyneaux how he kept Paisley at bay as he did for quite some time in the 1980s. "Simple," he replied. "I out-right him." He meant that he managed to convey an image of being more conservative and right-wing than Paisley and consequently gave him no excuse to challenge.

In the end, even Molyneaux succumbed. Today the wheel of political fortune has turned full circle. It is an irony that a man who did so much to oppose partnership in this country will end his political career heralded as a champion of it.

As Paisley prepares to depart his political life, he stands accused by some of his erstwhile supporters of the biggest unionist sell-out of them all.

Some of the party grassroots seem insufficiently conditioned to the changes that have taken place. So where do these people go from here?

Will they display the same faith in the next leader as they had in Paisley?

Could it be that the fundamentalist wing of the DUP is really the Traditional Unionist Voice which surfaced recently? Where will these people stand with a new leader and what pressures may they try to impose?

Conversely, what of the middle-ground of unionism?

For example, the so-called pragmatists of the DUP who did the deal with Sinn Fein and are not for backing away from it.

How close are they and the Ulster Unionists and might they even find a new common base of agreement which, to date, has not been apparent in the constant squabbling between them?

Splits, schisms, or realignments? The next few weeks will tell but I suspect it will not be plain-sailing.

These are the current imponderables of a future without Paisley. On balance, the Stormont Executive should survive his passing. But difficult days lie ahead. It may be that only Ian Richard Kyle Paisley could have taken us to where we are today. That is still far from where we need to be in the future.

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