Ed Curran: After Paisley, what next?
Editor-in-chief Edmund Curran has followed the career of DUP leader Ian Paisley from the Sixties to yesterday's announcement that he was bowing out as First Minister. He assesses his incredible journey to power-sharing and asks what the political future holds without him centrestage?
Wednesday, 5 March 2008
My first encounter with a young Ian Paisley was witnessing him preaching in the Ulster Hall in the early Sixties when I was a student. I remember writing an article for the Queen's University magazine, Gown, condemning him out of hand as a rabble-rouser.
I was not alone. The media, in general, at that time had it in for him. I
never met a journalist in those days who had a good word to say about him.
He was seen by many as a pariah, a zealot relic from the 17th century.
I remember the Sunday Times ran an opinion poll claiming that he would lose
his first electoral contest against the then Prime Minister, Captain Terence
O'Neill, by a big margin. He didn't win but he was only narrowly defeated.
The pollster concluded that when it came to asking questions about
supporting extremists, (as Paisley was categorised), the people of Northern
Ireland had lied blatantly.
Onwards and upwards went Paisley. To
Westminster and to the European Parliament.
I remember listening
to a middle class group in the early seventies and everyone of them was
condemning him.
Yet, on the law of averages, one in three of the
group had probably voted for him, such was his enormous support in the
European election.
I have so many personal memories of Paisley. Of
following so many of his anti civil rights rallies, as a young reporter, and
sensing how easily he could whip up a mob.
Of being in his Martyr's
Memorial Church in Belfast on Sunday mornings listening to his masterful
oratory win over the faithful in packed pews.
Of an ashen-faced
Captain Terence O'Neill standing in the hallway of the Unionist headquarters
in Glengall St, Belfast, shattered by Paisley's electoral assault on him.
And of all the other Unionist leaders, Chichester-Clark, Faulkner, West and
Molyneaux, one by one, beaten into submission by him.
We can look
back on Ian Paisley's career ad infinitum. We can rail against his
intransigence over so many years. Indeed, we can easily conclude that his
firebrand Protestantism did no favours for the image of Northern Ireland in
the eyes of the outside world.
Yet for all that, there is only one
question that really matters on his impending retirement. Will the
power-sharing Stormont Executive survive beyond the few weeks he has left in
office?
The past is past and we are all witnesses to the fact that
Paisley eventually stepped up to the mark and, in horse racing parlance,
defied his previous form.
It doesn't matter how long it took him
to cross the Rubicon or take the road to Damascus. The fact is he did it and
the world at large, praises him for that.
In time Ian Paisley will
tell us why he did what he did.
Was it because his wife Eileen
said it was the right thing to do?
Was it because Tony Blair
prevailed upon him in his latter years? Or was it because the prospect of
power and respectful recognition proved too much for him to reject beyond
his 80th year? Whatever the reason, Paisley's retirement places Northern
Ireland at another crossroads. The politics of Stormont is not quite as
simple as choosing his replacement because there remain at least two types
of unionism. Fundamentalist or pragmatist? And the question that lies ahead
is: which is it to be?
A future without Ian Paisley raises
concerns for the party he leads. Will it remain intact under a new pragmatic
leader such as Peter Robinson, or will the strains and stresses evident
recently in the by-election at Banbridge raise themselves to a new level?
What of those within the Democratic Unionist Party who kept their heads down
while Paisley was in charge but whose conscience remains uneasy over
dealings with Martin McGuinness or Gerry Adams? The history of Ulster
unionism since Ian Paisley's emergence in the Sixties has been of splits and
schisms. I once asked James Molyneaux how he kept Paisley at bay as he did
for quite some time in the 1980s. "Simple," he replied. "I
out-right him." He meant that he managed to convey an image of being
more conservative and right-wing than Paisley and consequently gave him no
excuse to challenge.
In the end, even Molyneaux succumbed. Today
the wheel of political fortune has turned full circle. It is an irony that a
man who did so much to oppose partnership in this country will end his
political career heralded as a champion of it.
As Paisley prepares
to depart his political life, he stands accused by some of his erstwhile
supporters of the biggest unionist sell-out of them all.
Some of
the party grassroots seem insufficiently conditioned to the changes that
have taken place. So where do these people go from here?
Will they
display the same faith in the next leader as they had in Paisley?
Could it be that the fundamentalist wing of the DUP is really the
Traditional Unionist Voice which surfaced recently? Where will these people
stand with a new leader and what pressures may they try to impose?
Conversely, what of the middle-ground of unionism?
For example, the
so-called pragmatists of the DUP who did the deal with Sinn Fein and are not
for backing away from it.
How close are they and the Ulster
Unionists and might they even find a new common base of agreement which, to
date, has not been apparent in the constant squabbling between them?
Splits, schisms, or realignments? The next few weeks will tell but I suspect
it will not be plain-sailing.
These are the current imponderables
of a future without Paisley. On balance, the Stormont Executive should
survive his passing. But difficult days lie ahead. It may be that only Ian
Richard Kyle Paisley could have taken us to where we are today. That is
still far from where we need to be in the future.
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