The Big Question: Why is Northern Ireland voting, and does the outcome matter?

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

By David McKittrick

Why are voters going to the polls today in Northern Ireland?

Although Belfast has an Assembly that is supposed to help run Northern Ireland, its powers have been suspended for years, a step taken after reports of an IRA spy ring caused unionists to pull out of government. The election is needed if the administration is to be revived.

The sense that the time may be ripe for a new beginning is palpable in Northern Ireland, with major relaxations in security, a sharp rise in house prices and a general feeling that the society, though deeply divided, is capable of improvement. The widespread belief, however, is that a comprehensive political settlement is necessary to underpin the gains that have already been made, and to provide the basis for long-term stability.

But aren't the Troubles over?

It is certainly true that violence has dropped dramatically: last year there were just three troubles deaths, and the last killing in Belfast was a year and a half ago. The IRA has disposed of its guns and gone out of business.

But in the aftermath of the troubles the sense is that Belfast needs a level political playing field, to involve everyone in the business of government and give them a stake in society, thus removing the need for any future resort to violence. Nearly all elements subscribe to this, with Sinn Fein especially eager to get into government.

Within months the party will be fighting another election, this time in the Irish Republic where it hopes to make gains and is prepared, if invited, to join a coalition.Its ambition is to be in government in both north and south, which it believes would put it in a strong strategic position to advance its programme for eventual Irish unity.

Tony Blair and Irish Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who together have toiled for 10 years to reach this point in the peace process, meanwhile strongly feel that devolution is necessary to provide some common ground among the various parties. Both feel that they are within reach of a successful outcome which would put both of them into the history books.

Mr Ahern also has an election to fight this year, and would like to do so as one of the architects of peace in Ireland.

What is unusual about this contest?

It has been carefully tailor-made to suit the particular circumstances. The 108 Assembly members are being elected under a system of proportional representation, which allows voters to support a range of candidates.

Under very precise mathematical arrangements, the various parties will then get to choose the local ministries they wish to head. And at the top of the new government will be two people, nominated by the two largest unionist and nationalist parties. The idea is that, since such disparate groups are unlikely ever to reach a deal on their own, the reliance on arithmetic means they must either sit in government together or face the fact that neither will wield power.

Who is likely to top the polls?

The Reverend Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist party is confidently expected to improve its position as the primary voice of unionism. His old unionist rival David Trimble has been vanquished, his Ulster Unionist party decimated in a previous poll.

On the nationalist side, Sinn Fein is the largest outfit, having bypassed the once pre-eminent Social Democratic and Labour party, which was headed by Nobel Peace Prize winner John Hume. Its nominee will be Martin McGuinness, who was regarded as a successful minister in a previous short-lived devolved government. The bottom line is that if an administration is formed it will be headed by the once mind-boggling Paisley-McGuinness combination.

Would Mr Paisley and Mr McGuinness work amicably together?

You must be joking. This pair, and their warring traditions, have been deadly enemies for decades: there is going to be a lot of confrontational glowering involved, and no touchy-feely stuff at all.

As a recent opinion poll showed, many expect their relationship would be characterised by fireworks, rather than any warm feeling of reconciliation and harmony. The Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams, though much in favour of powersharing, has acknowledged that it would be "a battle a day".

Mr Paisley's position, in fact, is that he does not speak to any member of Sinn Fein; until recent years his people would not even share a television studio with republicans. But this lack of direct contact, though difficult, does not necessarily doom a new arrangement from the start, since previous arrangements have been worked, albeit awkwardly, by politicians who were not speaking to each other.

So is Mr Paisley going to make a deal?

Nearly everyone wants to conform to Tony Blair's timetable, which lays down that members of the new Assembly should convene on 26 March to form the new government. The weeks up to that date are expected to be filled with a welter of last-minute negotiations as the parties seek to gain the maximum in terms of any last-minute advantages.

Mr Paisley, though leaning towards participation in a new administration, has not said formally he will play his part, showing an uncharacteristic coyness about his intentions. This is because this is uncharted territory to him: now in his 80s, his lengthy career has until now been based on rejecting deals such as this. But today, as unionism's new top dog, he has the opportunity of becoming First Minister and wielding considerable power, even if he has to do so alongside Martin McGuinness.

The other new factor is that his monolithic party is suddenly sprouting dissident wings which are unenthusiastic about sharing power with republicans. Some in the ranks oppose making a deal with Sinn Fein; others might but want to put off doing so. He may feel he should postpone things.

How would others react to an impasse?

With alarm, dismay and anger. Mr Blair, Mr Ahern and Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain say that 26 March is an absolute and unbreakable deadline, the last chance saloon for devolution. Their assertion is that if the deal is not done on that day then the entire architecture of devolution will be shelved.

All are hoping that Mr Paisley will make no attempt at postponement but, possibly buoyed by a good showing in today's poll, seize his chance to lead Northern Ireland into a new era.

Could these elections lead to a lasting breakthrough in Ulster?

Yes...

* The IRA has gone away and loyalist extremists are less active

* The improved atmosphere will help bind together any new settlement

* The prospect of power appeals to both Ian Paisley and the Sinn Fein leadership

No...

* Four decades of violence have left deep-seated bitterness and division

* Mr Paisley and Sinn Fein are too far apart ever to co-operate properly

* Agreement may be possible at some stage, but not yet