Why you have to hand it to Arlene

After Arlene Foster carved up Northern Ireland's seven district councils into 11, Jude Collins says she's empowered unionists

Friday, March 21, 2008

Bill Clinton, David Trimble, Barak Obama - they all seized their moment and took the glittering prize against the odds.

So, don't assume Arlene Foster is just a wee Fermanagh girl who likes wearing big lipstick. After what she's done with the district councils, anything is possible. You'll remember that the original council plan, envisaged under direct rule, was for seven district councils.

This would have produced a balanced picture in terms of council majorities: three councils would have had a nationalist majority, three a unionist and one - Belfast - an even balance between the two groups. Fair or what? Surprisingly, the plan made the unionist parties very cross. You couldn't have nationalist majorities in councils west of the Bann, they said. That'd mean the greening of the West and would be very, very bad.

Astonishingly, the SDLP joined them in their objections, for pretty much the same reasons. Which left Sinn Fein as the only party in favour of the British decision to have a seven-council system.

But that was BA - Before Arlene. With one miraculous touch, Mrs Foster has transformed seven into 11.

All changed, changed utterly. How so? Well, in the seven-council model recommended by Britain, 165,000 nationalists would have been living within councils with a unionist majority.

In Arlene's 11-model, that becomes 252,000 nationalists living within unionist-majority councils. Just like that. Four district councils - Armagh, Banbridge, Craigavon and Limavady - which would have been nationalist majority councils under the Seven Council British plan now find themselves transferred into unionist-majority councils.

The Dunmurry Cross area of Lisburn and half of Castlereagh would have been within Belfast, with the Alliance party holding the balance of power under the Seven Council plan; these areas will now be transferred to the unionist majority Lisburn and Castlereagh Council under the 11-Council plan. Thanks to Arlene, unionist night has been turned into glorious day.

What's more, she's pulled off the trick by doing several tyre-screeching detours around logical decision-making and awkward questions. For example, why is the Dundonald area of Castlereagh included with the Lisburn Council, when it is much closer to Ards town and North Down? The Belfast suburbs of Dunmurry Cross and parts of Castlereagh would have been included within Belfast under the Seven Council British model; now they won't be. Limavady Council will be removed from Derry and placed with Moyle in the 11-Council model.

Ballykelly is only a hen's kick from Derry city and the people of Cushendall live closer to Scotland than they do to Ballykelly, but Arlene's 11-council model cheerfully ignores such matters. And if you were thinking that a Carrickfergus-Larne-Ballyclare configuration and a Ballymena-Antrim configuration be more rational than what's being offered by the 11-Council model, forget it. In short, the exquisitely perfect balance of the Seven Council model selected by Britain has been replaced by one that gives markedly increased power to unionism. Reg Empey says Arlene's 11 councils will pass power of Belfast into nationalist hands. Don't start my cat laughing again, Reg. The Boundary Commissioner has been invited to review the boundaries he proposed last year, which might have eventually secured a nationalist majority within Belfast.

With a unionist minister and pressure from those quarters already regarding a further push outwards of Belfast's boundaries, stand by to have Rathcoole and maybe more of Castlereagh come into Belfast. When that happens, nationalists can kiss goodbye to becoming a majority in Belfast City Council for decades to come.

And there's more. On perhaps three of the six majority unionist councils, nationalists will not have sufficient representation to be able to trigger power-sharing mechanisms and so secure civic positions on those councils for their representatives.

In contrast, on all four nationalist majority councils, unionists will comfortably secure enough seats to trigger power-sharing and to secure civic posts if the d'Hondt mechanism is activated. Some carve-up, eh? Other than inter-unionist-party envy, there's no reason why Ulster Unionists aren't flinging their greasy caps at the moon and applauding Arlene; other than inter-nationalist-party envy (assuming the SDLP hasn't reverted to its post-nationalist stance again) there is no reason why SDLP supporters aren't rending their garments and gnashing their teeth. But, of course, the UUP can't stand the DUP so they reject the DUP-sponsored model, and SDLP teeth are set on edge by the very word republicanism, so they welcome the dismissal of the Seven Council model which the Shinners favoured. Which leaves only one question hanging in the air: what were Sinn Fein thinking of, when they agreed to the 11-council model? Three possible answers.

One, they were dazzled by Arlene's amazing political prestidigitation. Two, they fell asleep at the political wheel. Three, they did a trade-off for some major concession from unionists further up the road. Arlene deserves a serious reward from unionists, like a party leadership. Nationalists deserve a serious explanation from the SDLP and Sinn Fein.