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EU referendum: Brexit campaign seven points ahead in latest polling

By David Hughes

Published 17/06/2016

Ukip leader Nigel Farage launches a new Ukip EU referendum poster campaign in London
Ukip leader Nigel Farage launches a new Ukip EU referendum poster campaign in London

The Brexit campaign has been given a fresh opinion poll boost as a survey put Leave seven points ahead of Remain.

The TNS poll found that among those who were likely to vote, some 47% backed Brexit, with 40% in favour of remaining and 13% undecided.

Among all respondents, the split was 35% for Leave, 33% for Remain, 22% for undecided and 11% saying they would not vote.

The study, carried out between June 7 and 13, is the latest to indicate a lead for the Leave camp.

Luke Taylor, head of social and political attitudes at TNS UK said: "Taking into account the likelihood to vote and whether or not people are registered to vote benefits Leave over Remain.

"In particular, our turnout model penalises younger people and those that did not vote in the previous general election as historically these groups are less likely to vote.

"However, this model is based on general elections and as this is a referendum, turnout among these groups may be higher than expected, boosting Remain.

"Furthermore, while this poll presents a substantial lead for Leave over Remain among those voters that have now made up their minds, the proportion selecting Leave is still a minority of all voters. There are still many undecided voters out there, and the history of referendums suggests that they will largely opt for the status quo."

A TNS survey carried out in late May put Leave on 43% and Remain on 41%.

Mr Taylor said: "This swing towards Leave since our last poll in late May might be due to a genuine change in opinion among voters, but it could also be due to random error."

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