Belfast Telegraph

UK Website Of The Year

General Election 2015: Hour-by-hour guide to counts and results in Northern Ireland

By Bill White

Published 07/05/2015

DUP Leader Peter Robinson celebrate their General Election results with MPs Nigel Dodds and Gavin Robinson at the Kings Hall in Belfast.
DUP Leader Peter Robinson celebrate their General Election results with MPs Nigel Dodds and Gavin Robinson at the Kings Hall in Belfast.
East Antrim and South Antrim constituency counts at Valley Leisure Centre, Newtownabbey. Danny Kinnehan celebrates with Mike Nesbitt after taking the South Antrim seat from Willie McCrea Picture by Stephen Hamilton / Press Eye.
A defeated Naomi Long at the East Belfast count
The DUP’s Gavin Robinson makes his speech after winning the East Belfast seat from Alliance’s Naomi Long (left)
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 08: Prime Minister David Cameron opens the car door for his wife Samantha as they leave 10 Downing Street for Windsor Palace to meet with Queen Elizabeth I on May 8, 2015 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Ed Miliband speaks to the media and party supporters at George Street in London, as he resigns as leader of the Labour Party after a dramatic election night where his party was virtually wiped out in Scotland and David Cameron was on the way to a Commons majority. Yui Mok/PA Wire
Ukip leader and parliamentary candidate for Thanet South Nigel Farage (left)arrives at the Winter Gardens in Margate, Kent, for the delayed count in Thanet South. Gareth Fuller/PA Wire
Alasdair McDonnell is to give up his Assembly seat after retaining his South Belfast Westminster position
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 08: Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha leave 10 Downing Street for Windsor Palace to meet with Queen Elizabeth I on May 8, 2015 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Opposition Labour party leader Ed Miliband (C) and his wife Justine Thornton arrive at Labour party headquarters in London on May 8, 2015, the day after a general election. Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives looked on course Friday for a surprise victory in Britain's general election which would redefine the country's future in Europe and herald more austerity cuts. AFP PHOTO / JUSTIN TALLISJUSTIN TALLIS/AFP/Getty Images
EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - MAY 08: SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon departs Edinburgh ahead of attending the 70th anniversary of VE Day commemorations in London on May 8, 2015 in Edinburgh, Scotland. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)
SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND - MAY 08: (EDITORS NOTE: Retransmission with alternate crop.) Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg looks dejected as they leave his constituency declaration at the English Institute of Sport on May 8, 2015 in Sheffield, England. The United Kingdom has gone to the polls to vote for a new government in one of the most closely fought General Elections in recent history. (Photo by Dave Thompson/Getty Images)
SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND - MAY 08: Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and his wife Miriam Gonzalez Durantez look dejected as they leave his constituency declaration at the English Institute of Sport on May 8, 2015 in Sheffield, England. (Photo by Dave Thompson/Getty Images)
East Belfast candidate Naomi Long (Alliance) Picture by Kelvin Boyes / Press Eye.
DUP East Belfast candidate Gavin Robinson takes the seat from Naomi Long at The King's Hall in Belfast
DUP Jeffery Donaldson gives the thumbs up after winning the Lagan Valley Count at the Leisureplex, Lisburn.
East Antrim and South Antrim constituency counts at Valley Leisure Centre, Newtownabbey. Danny Kinnehan celebrates with wife Anna after taking the South Antrim seat from Willie McCrea Picture by Stephen Hamilton / Press Eye.
East Antrim and South Antrim constituency counts at Valley Leisure Centre, Newtownabbey. Danny Kinnehan shakes the hand of Willie McCrea who he replaced as MP of South Antrim Picture by Stephen Hamilton / Press Eye.
Willie McCrea from the DUP gives a very gracious speech after being replaced by Danny Kinnehan. Picture by Stephen Hamilton / Press Eye.
Sinn Fein's Pat Doherty celebrates with his family and freinds after the announcment of his 16,807 votes victory in West Tyrone during this evenings results in the 2015 general Election results from the Omagh Leisure Centre. Photo Mark marlow/Pacemaker Press
North Belfast candidate?Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) Picture by Kelvin Boyes / Press Eye.
East Belfast ballot boxes arrive as the General Election count takes place at the King's Hall on May 7, 2015 in Belfast, Northern Ireland.
Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams is interviewed by a broadcaster as the General Election count takes place at the King's Hall on May 7, 2015 in Belfast
East Antrim and South Antrim constituency counts at Valley Leisure Centre, Newtownabbey. Danny Kinnehan UUP Candidate Picture by Stephen Hamilton / Press Eye.
Counting in the General Election gets underway at the Kings Hall in Belfast.
DUP's Nigel Dodds (North Belfast) with wife Diane at The King's Hall in Belfast
Banbridge Count Counting is under way at Banbridge, County Down, one of eight centres across Northern Ireland Photo Aidan O'Reilly/Pacemaker Press
East Antrim and South Antrim constituency counts at Valley Leisure Centre, Newtownabbey. Sammy Wilson DUP Candidate Picture by Stephen Hamilton / Press Eye.
East Antrim and South Antrim constituency counts at Valley Leisure Centre, Newtownabbey. Danny Kinnehan UUP Candidate Picture by Stephen Hamilton / Press Eye.
Sitting MP Mark Durkan, SDLP, at the count for the Foyle Constituency which is being held in Templemore Sports Complex, Derry-Londonderry Northern Ireland. Picture Martin McKeown. Inpresspics.com. 07.05.15
PACEMAKER BELFAST 07/05/2015 One of the first ballot boxes to arrived is opened in Templemore Sports Complex last night as counting got underway in the 2015 General Election.
PACEMAKER BELFAST 07/052015 Westminster Elections Banbridge Count Sinn Fein candidate Catherine Seeley pictured at the count in Banbridge, County Down, one of eight centres across Northern Ireland Photo Aidan O'Reilly/Pacemaker Press
PACEMAKER BELFAST 07/052015 Westminster Elections Banbridge Count Counting is under way at Banbridge, County Down, one of eight centres across Northern Ireland Photo Aidan O'Reilly/Pacemaker Press
PACEMAKER BELFAST 07/052015 Westminster Elections Banbridge Count Counting is under way at Banbridge, County Down, one of eight centres across Northern Ireland Photo Aidan O'Reilly/Pacemaker Press
A man arrives to cast his vote at Groomsport boat house on May 7, 2015 in Belfast, Northern Ireland. (Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images)
Pacemaker Press Belfast 07-05-2015: Voters at Glenavy Youth Project in Co Antrim , as Northern Ireland voters take to the polls on Thursday to select 18 MPs in the general election. A total of 138 candidates are standing across Northern Ireland and 1.2m people are eligible to vote. Picture Colm Lenaghan/Pacemaker
A woman walks past a sign in the window of the Newtownards Electoral office in Co Down Northern Ireland. Photo: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Demonstrators carry black flags during a protest at Parliament Square on election day on May 7, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
An election official stacks plastic boxes at a vote counting centre in Margate, southeast England, on May 7, 2015 in preparation for the arrival of the ballots during the UK general election. AFP/Getty Images
A polling station sign on a parking billboard at Cairnshill Primary school in Belfast as polls open across the UK for the General Election. Photo: Niall Carson/PA Wire
SNP candidate for Gordon, Alex Salmond, arrives to cast his vote at Auchterellon School, Ellon, with local resident Nicki Falconer with her family Skye (left) and Keiran (right) as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner.
A ballot box for the constituency of East Belfast at the Newtownards Electoral office in Co Down Northern Ireland. Photo: Niall Carson/PA Wire
UUP candidate for Fermanagh and South Tyrone Tom Elliott arrives at the polling station in his home town of Ballinamallard, Co. Fermanagh.
A woman walks past post for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Alliance party as she walks in east Belfast on May 7, 2015, as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened Thursday in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / PAUL FAITHPAUL FAITH/AFP/Getty Images
Mid Suffolk Council handout photo of their Poll Clerk Simon Stoner by a caravan being used for a Polling Station in Kenton, near Debenham, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Mid Suffolk Council/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used in for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.
Women at the polling station at Bordesley Green allotments in Birmingham, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Joe Giddens/PA Wire
Press Eye - Belfast - Northern Ireland - 7th May 2015 Picture by Jonathan Porter / Press Eye Polling stations open in Northern Ireland for the 2015 Westminster Election. Voting at the Elim Church polling station in the Dundonald area of east Belfast.
Pacemaker Press Belfast 07-05-2015: Northern Ireland voters are going to the polls on Thursday to select 18 MPs in the general election. A total of 138 candidates are standing across Northern Ireland and 1.2m people are eligible to vote. SDLP Leader Dr Alasdair McDonnell pictured casting his vote with Olivia Nugent and daughter Aileen. Picture By: Arthur Allison.
Pacemaker Press Belfast 07-05-2015: Northern Ireland voters are going to the polls on Thursday to select 18 MPs in the general election. A total of 138 candidates are standing across Northern Ireland and 1.2m people are eligible to vote. Sinn Fein's Paul Maskey pictured after casting his vote. Picture By: Arthur Allison.
First Minister Peter Robinson with DUP candidate Gavin Robinson for East Belfast, cast their vote in the at Elim Church in Dundonald.
A comical photo from Cairnshill Primary in Belfast where a polling station sign was stuck on top of a car parking sign. Pic: Julie McGovern-Peoples
Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness leaves the polling station after casting his vote in Derry in the General Election. Picture Martin McKeown. Inpresspics.com. 07.05.15
Goods are removed from 10 Downing Street, London, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Anthony Devlin/PA Wire
Prime Minister David Cameron and wife Samantha leave after casting their votes at Spelsbury Memorial Hall, Witney, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire
Voters visit a polling station at Hanover Primary School, Islington, London, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Rick Findler/PA Wire
Conservative candidate for Wirral West Esther McVey on the streets of West Kirkby on General Election Day. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
Police officers stand outside a Polling station at Westminster Central Hall, London, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Anthony Devlin/PA Wire
Green Party leader Natalie Bennett (second right) arrives to cast her vote at Ossulston Tenants' Hall, London, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Yui Mok/PA Wire
Labour Party leader Ed Miliband and his wife Justine arrive to cast their votes at Sutton village hall in Doncaster, as Britain goes to the ballot box today in the most uncertain General Election for decades, with no party on course to emerge a clear winner. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date: Thursday May 7, 2015. See PA story ELECTION Main. Photo credit should read: Chris Radburn/PA Wire
Protestors demonstrate as British Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party David Cameron (R) leaves with his wife Samantha after voting at a polling station in Spelsbury on May 7, 2015 as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened today in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / LEON NEALLEON NEAL/AFP/Getty Images
Members of the public arrive at a polling station set up in Mattingley church hall in southern England, on May 7, 2015, as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened today in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / ADRIAN DENNISADRIAN DENNIS/AFP/Getty Images
Scotland's First Minister and Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) Nicola Sturgeon (L) waves as she and her husband Peter Murrell cast their votes at the Broomhoouse Community Hall in Glasgow, Scotland, on May 7, 2015, as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened Thursday in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / ANDY BUCHANANAndy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images
A member of the public looks at a dog tied to railings after voting at a polling station in Glasgow, Scotland, on May 7, 2015, as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened Thursday in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / IAN MACNICOLIan MacNicol/AFP/Getty Images
A dog is tied to railings at a polling station in Glasgow, Scotland, on May 7, 2015, as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened Thursday in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / IAN MACNICOLIan MacNicol/AFP/Getty Images
Members of the public arrive to vote at a polling station in Glasgow, Scotland, on May 7, 2015, as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened Thursday in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / IAN MACNICOLIan MacNicol/AFP/Getty Images
A woman attaches a sign directing voters to the polling station in the village of Sutton, near Doncaster, in northern England on May 7, 2015, as Britain holds a general election. Polls opened today in Britain's closest general election for decades with voters set to decide between the Conservatives of Prime Minister David Cameron, Ed Miliband's Labour and a host of smaller parties. AFP PHOTO / OLI SCARFFOLI SCARFF/AFP/Getty Images

So it's getting close to the pop-corn, slippers, and perhaps that stiff drink time as people start getting ready to watch the all night marathon of the election results coverage.

I've reproduced a quick summary of what could be the key seat declarations and the key points to look out for during the marathon results coverage.

The Belfast Telegraph will have reporters at every count across Northern Ireland and will be bringing you live updates as the results come in throughout the night and early hours of the morning. You can follow live coverage here.

>>Follow the counts as they come in - click here<<

There will also be updates live as they happen from Belfast Telegraph reporters via Twitter @beltel and on the Facebook page.

Updates will also be provided by LucidTalk who will be at the Belfast counts, you can follow LucidTalk on Twitter: @LucidTalk.

Shortly after the polls close at 10pm we'll hear the results of the exit polls at around 10.05. These are usually very accurate - in 2010 it projected Conservative 307 (actually 307), Labour 255 (258), Liberal Democrat 60 (57), but it could be different this time as there probably will be an uneven national swing.

However the polling companies are compensating for this by targeting key marginal seats, and modifying their modelling to enable an accurate prediction. It will be interesting to see how accurate this 2015 exit poll turns out to be.  

Here's our approximate guide to the Northern Ireland declarations:

We're not making any comments on the Northern Ireland seats as you've already had plenty of analysis and commentary from us, with our monthly NI-Wide Opinion Panel polls - let's just wait on the results now.

Incidentally don't hold us to this timetable, as it's a lot more precarious and risky predicting election declaration times, than it is doing Opinion Polls.

Estimated expected results times:

Foyle   1.45am 

Antrim North  2.00am

Down North   2:00am 

Lagan Valley  2:15am 

Belfast West  2:15am 

Antrim East   2:30am 

Upper Bann  2.30am

Belfast North  2:30am 

Belfast East   2:45am 

Belfast South   2.45am 

Tyrone West  2.45am 

Strangford   3.00am 

Antrim South  3.00am

Londonderry East 3:15am

Down South   3:45am 

Newry & Armagh 3.45am

Ulster Mid  4.00am 

Fermanagh & South Tyrone 5:15am

 

Other seats, and issues to look out for are:

In Scotland, Na-hEileanan an Iar (Western Isles) may be the first Scottish seat to declare at around 2am and should be held by the SNP - although it returned a vote against independence last September. The first Scottish mainland declaration is expected to be in Angus. 

3am: Labour should be well ahead at this stage regardless of the final result, as urban Labour-leaning constituencies tend to declare first. Also London will be declaring faster due to them having no borough elections this time, and London will be mostly Labour.

As we know in Northern Ireland, when you have more than one election on the same day it slows up the count process

3.15am: In Scotland, around this time, watch out for Lanark & Hamilton East and East Kilbride both safe Labour seats (or used to be) - If the SNP win these, then they're on their way to 40+ seats. Plus if they win Gordon Brown’s old seat of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (a big ask) then they're on for a landslide. 

 If Nationalists in Wales are going well, then Plaid may also be aiming to overturn a seven-point deficit to Labour in Ynys Mon (Anglesey). Other Welsh seats should go with form.

3.30am: In England, Northampton North and South should declare about now. These were both Conservative gains from Labour last time – Labour needs to take Northampton North, if it hopes to become the largest party; and if it takes both an overall Labour majority is in prospect. Likewise the Conservative marginals of Ipswich and Halesowen & Rowley Regis need to be held for the Conservatives to remain the largest party. 

3.30 - 3.45am: For an absolute majority, the Conservatives would probably need to have taken the lead in total seats won by about now.

4am: In Scotland, around about this time, the Glasgow seats will probably have declared. These will be key in determining if the SNP are heading towards the largest party in Scotland (unless they already are by this time), or Labour have stemmed the tide.

If you're still awake by this time then an overall picture of the final result should be emerging.

Bill White is Managing Director of Belfast polling and market research company LucidTalk, polling partners to the Belfast Telegraph.

Online Editors

Read More

From Belfast Telegraph