Worst of swine flu pandemic has yet to come, experts warn

Thursday, 8 October 2009

Over 100 prescriptions for antiviral medication are being handed out in Northern Ireland each day — with health experts warning the worst of the swine flu pandemic is yet to come.

Latest government figures on the spread of swine flu throughout Northern Ireland are to be released today and are expected to show a further sharp hike in the number of laboratory confirmed cases, GP consultations and hospitalisations across the province due to swine flu.

Government statistics relating to the four-week period between the weeks ending September 4 and September 25 have already reinforced warnings by health officials of an explosion in swine flu cases, while the death on Tuesday of a young child with the virus has raised further fears among parents across Northern Ireland.

At the beginning of September there were an average of two new laboratory confirmed cases each day but this had risen to eight every day by the end of the month.

However, laboratory confirmed cases do not reveal the true extent of the spread of the H1N1 virus as very few people have been tested for swine flu since the government stopped routine testing of suspected cases as the UK moved to a treatment approach.

But in the week ending September 25, there were 831 antiviral prescriptions handed out, almost three times as many given to patients at the beginning of the month.

This brings to 10,623 the number of antiviral prescriptions given to patients since the beginning of the swine flu outbreak.

An average of six people were hospitalised across Northern Ireland each day as a result of swine flu during the week ending September 25, while GP consultations for flu and flu-like symptoms had risen to record levels for the time of year.

While Dr Brian Dunn, chairman of the British Medical Association’s Northern Ireland General Practitioner’s committee, has urged the public to remain calm in light of the latest tragic death, he has warned the number of cases is likely to rise.

“I think the figures we are seeing at the moment are what we were expecting but I think it's just the beginning,” he said.

“We escaped the worst of swine flu when the schools broke up for summer but with the new school term swine flu is going to spread again and I think the figures reflect that.

“The number of GP consultations could be multiplied by three or four but we are as prepared as we can. GPs have certainly seen a rise in their workload but they are coping well.”

The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSSPS) has yet to announce when it will begin its swine flu vaccination programme for at risk groups and frontline healthcare staff although it has said it hopes the programme will begin by the end of the month.

Doctors across Northern Ireland have also reached an agreement with the government on how best the vaccination programme can be carried out so that vulnerable people, such as those with chronic illnesses, can be protected from the virus.

The cost of the DHSSPS swine flu strategy in Northern Ireland is expected to run into millions of pounds although a final figure has not yet been released.

Despite this, the DHSSPS has not yet received any additional funding to cover the massive cost of fighting the swine flu pandemic and it is not known when a decision will be made regarding making additional cash available to the Health Minister.

A row erupted earlier this year when Finance Minister Sammy Wilson refused a request by Michael McGimpsey for funds.

For more information on swine flu visit NiDirect

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