Exclusive devolution poll: day three

Day three of three-day series

Thursday, May 08, 2008

BELFAST TELEGRAPH / IPSOS MORI POLL

Some of the results are surprising, some would have been expected, but all of them will have an impact on how Northern Ireland is run.

The poll was conducted by Ipsos MORI on behalf of the Belfast Telegraph during April. Ipsos MORI carried out 1,000 interviews among a representative sample of Northern Ireland population.

To achieve a representative sample, quotas were put in place for age, gender and employment status. The fieldwork was conducted by a team from Ipsos MORI's telephone research centre between 18 April 2008 and 27 April 2008.

The telephone numbers were generated using random digit dialling (RDD).

Opinion still split on site for sports stadium

By Chris Thornton

Years after it was first proposed, the planned stadium for the Maze has seen nothing but wrestling. And today's Belfast Telegraph poll suggests that while the Maze is favoured by more people than Belfast, neither side in the debate about the location for a multi-sports stadium can be counted out.

Opinion is fairly split: 36% of the 1,000 people who took part in the Ipsos MORI survey prefer the site of the former Maze prison for the stadium, which is to host football, GAA and rugby matches.

However, 24% said they would prefer the stadium to be located in Belfast, the alternative most often mentioned by opponents of the Maze.

But the largest group of people is indifferent to the location — 39% said they have no preference for where a multi-sports stadium is built.

An announcement on the Maze site's economic viability is due soon — and there are expectations that announcement could scupper the plan.

The stadium proposal was largely pushed forward by the Direct Rule administration, but final decisions were left for the devolved Ministers who took power last May.

They were expected to have made a final decision by now, but the battle has dragged on — thanks largely to differing opinions between Sinn Fein and the DUP, and within the DUP, that are reflected in the poll.

More than a third (38%) of DUP supporters want the stadium in Belfast, but a quarter want it at the Maze site. Another 38% say they have no preference.

Sports Minister Edwin Poots and Junior Minister Jeffrey Donaldson — who both represent the constituency containing the Maze — are among the DUP members who favour the prison site plan.

But some other senior members of the party are believed to prefer Belfast, where there is no confirmed site for a stadium, although several suggestions have been put forward.

A majority of Sinn Fein supporters (54%) favour the Maze site. Development there will include an interpretative centre featuring an old H Block from the jail and the prison hospital where 10 republican inmates died on hunger strike.

That centre has prompted much of the opposition from unionists. A majority of people who responded to the poll (51%) oppose the plan to keep one of the H Blocks, with 33% supporting the idea.

The responses were split along sectarian lines. Protestants are overwhelmingly opposed (69% against) to the commemorative centre, while a majority of Catholics (54%) are in favour. Among Sinn Fein supporters, that climbs to more than two-thirds (71%) supporting the centre.

When it comes to using the proposed Maze stadium, opinion is also split. Forty-nine per cent of the people say they are unlikely to go there to see major events, with 47% saying they're likely.

Those least likely to travel to Maze site are in Belfast, where 66% of the public said they would not travel. Armagh (75%), Down (55%) and Tyrone & Fermanagh (54%) have the people who say they are most likely to travel there.

We'd be happy to pay more if the public services are sorted

People are feeling generous — on some of the most important issues facing Northern Ireland today, large numbers are prepared to hand over more of their pay packet to get them sorted.

As part of the Belfast Telegraph/Ipsos MORI poll, 1,000 people were asked if they'd be willing to pay more taxes for a series of public services.

A majority of people said they would pay more for five of the six services mentioned — the only thumbs down was for more public housing.

The most significant response concerned free care for elderly people. Better than four of five people (81%) said they would pay more to secure that care, which devolved government has brought to Scotland.

Three-quarters would be willing to pay more for cleaner hospitals, which the survey showed up earlier this week as the number one concern that the public selected from a list of issues.

Almost two-thirds (64%) said they would pay more taxes for a cleaner environment, and 59% said they would stump up to see more police on the beat.

A majority — 55% — would pay more to supply free university education.

But the rise in house prices over recent years hasn't persuaded people that there is a need for more public housing. A majority of 53% said they would not be willing to pay more taxes to see more public housing.

People who responded to the poll were also asked if they are working or not. Those who are working — and already paying the most in direct taxes — were a little less enthusiastic about paying more, but tended to agree with the majority in each case.

Public hits out at MLAs seeking increases in pay and expenses

By David Gordon

The bulk of voters have little sympathy for MLAs on pay and expenses, the Belfast Telegraph opinion poll indicates.

Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed opposed a salary hike for Stormont representatives to bring them into line with their counterparts in Edinburgh and Cardiff. Only 24% were in favour.

There was also a thumping 67% majority against MLAs being permitted to employ family members on their publicly-funded payrolls.

The findings fire a warning shot to Assembly politicians ahead of key decisions on pay and allowances.

An outside review of their remuneration is due to be completed within the next few months.

It is expected to recommend an increase to narrow the salary gap with Scotland and Wales that grew during the years of suspension at Stormont.

The opinion poll shows a move of this kind would not be well received across all sections of the community.

The 59% opposition figure included 46% who were in the 'strongly disagree' camp.

Fifty-five percent of Protestants and 63% of Catholics surveyed said they opposed the idea of MLAs playing catch-up with devolved bodies elsewhere.

On the gender front, 56% of men and 61% of women were against.

Among DUP supporters, there was 53% opposition to such a salary jump, while the Sinn Fein figure was 64%.

The strong views on politicians employing relatives may come as a surprise in the corridors of power.

Much of the debate on this issue has centred on such questions as whether family payroll links should be publicly declared.

There have also been calls from some quarters for parties to recruit their Assembly backroom teams through open competition processes.

It would seem that a large majority of the public here take a much tougher line.

Of the 67% who disagreed that MLAs should be allowed to employ their relatives, 55% were in the strongly disagree category. Only 18% backed allowing the politicians to keep it in the family.

There was no difference between the sexes in the poll on this question, with men and women both recording a 67% figure.

The opposition level among Catholics came to 71%, while Protestants had a 64% no vote.

The breakdown according to voting intentions showed DUP supporters had the most tolerance for MLAs on the topic.

Nevertheless, 59% of them still said the practice of hiring relatives should not be permitted.

Sinn Fein supporters had the highest anti rating with 74%, followed by SDLP (72%), and UUP and Alliance (both 66%).

MLAs from the across the political spectrum currently have family members in their backroom teams, working in such roles as researchers, assistants and constituency office managers.

Details were made public by Stormont parties earlier this year, following a Westminster scandal over payments by Tory MP Derek Conway to his full-time student son Freddie.

The current examination of MLA remuneration is being carried out by the London-based Senior Salaries Review Body.

First Ministers well supported for taking their jobs seriously

In the last days of the Paisley and McGuinness partnership comes confirmation that the public did not hold the Chuckle Brothers image against them.

Overwhelming majorities said they believed both First Minister Ian Paisley and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness have taken their jobs seriously during the first year that they have been in office.

The First Ministers were nicknamed after the children's comedy duo Paul and Barry Chuckle after they were pictured laughing together after their installation last year.

Eighty-five per cent of the 1,000 people who were interviewed by Ipsos MORI were satisfied that Mr McGuinness has taken his job seriously, with 84% agreeing that Mr Paisley — who will retire shortly — has also treated his role seriously.

Mixed views on when to hand over justice powers

The last piece of the jigsaw is waiting. At some stage, the DUP and Sinn Fein are supposed to agree the final phase of devolution by taking responsibility for the PSNI and the justice system from Westminster.

Since the return of Stormont last year, the Government had targeted this month as the time to hand policing and justice powers to local ministers in a new Department of Justice.

London's ready. Sinn Fein is ready. But the DUP, while agreeing in principle with the idea, says the time isn't yet right. And the party isn't terribly specific about when it will be.

Those positions are broadly reflected in today's results from the Belfast Telegraph/ Ipsos MORI poll.

Opinion about the timing of the handover is mixed, and broadly follows the two political camps.

Just over a third of the public (36%) say the handover should happen on a date to be agreed.

The second largest body of opinion — 27% — says the powers should be transferred this month.

Another 10% say it should happen in the autumn, when it could sweeten things for unionists by being linked to the demise of the Parades Commission, and 9% say the spring of next year.

The results show that a solid majority is in favour or at least accepts the devolution of justice powers, while 10% say the transfer should never happen.

Protestants are more likely to prefer an unspecified date for the transfer. Forty-three per cent favour a date to be agreed, more than double the number of Protestants who picked any other single option.

Catholics tend to prefer the immediate handover date. Over a third (37%) say this month, but just over a quarter (28%) of Catholics say it should happen on a date to be agreed.

Sinn Fein supporters are more likely to prefer this month. Forty-three per cent picked May, while exactly the same proportion of DUP supporters chose a date to be agreed. There won't be any immediate meeting of minds.

Split remains on united Ireland

Northern Ireland's position has been settled for the near future, but opinion is still deeply split about what will happen in the long term.

Forty per cent of the population believe a united Ireland will not happen in the next 50 years, but 35% do see that happening. Another quarter appear to be undecided.

As part of today's Belfast Telegraph poll, Ipsos MORI asked 1,000 people if they agreed or disagreed with the statement that 'there will not be a united Ireland in 50 years time'.

The question does not necessarily indicate support for the idea — rather it gave people the opportunity to forecast the constitutional position.

Even so, indications were still split along predictable religious lines. However, just over one-third of Catholics (34%) said they cannot see a united Ireland in the next 50 years.

On the other side, more than a quarter (28%) of Protestants indicated they expect a united Ireland by 2058.

1,000 are interviewed in Belfast Telegraph survey

During April 2008, Ipsos MORI, on behalf of the Belfast Telegraph, carried out 1,000 interviews amongst a representative sample of the Northern Ireland population.

To achieve a representative sample, quotas were put in place for age, gender and employment status.

The fieldwork was conducted by a dedicated team from Ipsos MORI's telephone research centre between 18 April, 2008, and 27 April, 2008.

The telephone numbers were generated using random digit dialling (RDD).

Complete survey results

The Findings
The use of the Research Findings is limited as follows: In the event that the Research Findings are attributed to Ipsos MORI or refer to Ipsos MORI, they shall not be used in the public domain including, without limitation, in advertising, marketing or promotional materials, press releases, or press conferences without the prior written consent of Ipsos MORI in order to ensure accuracy of data disclosure.

Note: The respondents to a survey are a sample of a total “population”, so we could never be certain that the figures obtained are exactly those that would have been if the entire population had been interviewed (the “true” values).  However, the extent to which the sample result varies from the “true” values can be predicted from knowing the size of the samples on which the results are based and the number of times that a particular answer is given. This level of uncertainty is represented as a “Confidence Interval” (CI), and means that we can be 95% confident that the “true”, underlying figure is within a certain distance from that measure by the survey sample.

Typically, the results derived from a sample of 1,000 will be within 3 percentage points of the true population value, given that the proportion experiencing a particular outcome is around 50%.  As this result moves away from 50% (either higher or lower) and / or the sample size increases, then this tolerance margin will get narrower.

Methodology
During  April 2008, Ipsos MORI, on behalf of the Belfast Telegraph, carried out 1000 interviews amongst a representative sample of the Northern Ireland population.   To  achieve a representative sample, quotas were put in place for  age,  gender  and  employment status. The fieldwork was conducted by a dedicated team from Ipsos MORI’s telephone research centre between 18 April
2008  and 27 April 2008.  The telephone numbers were generated using random digit dialling (RDD).