House market slump bottoming out, claim surveyors
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
Print
Email
The slump in the Northern Ireland housing market is bottoming out and the first shoots of recovery are starting to emerge, surveyors claimed today.
While prices are set to fall further over the winter months there is evidence first time buyers are starting to re-engage with the market, according to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors latest housing survey.
Institute spokesman Tom McClelland said a major correction in the market has already taken place and prices are now coming within the reach of those wishing to take their first step on the property ladder.
"With the economy now entering recession and the number of redundancies rising, the reality is that a recovery of the housing market as a whole is still some way off," he said.
"However chartered surveyors are reporting a pick-up in interest amongst first time buyers with prices in that sector now cut significantly."
"On the whole, with average prices having fallen around 30 per cent to date, and more in some sectors of the market, the expectation is that steep price declines in the average house price will not take place in 2009.
"Housing surveys may continue to report steep declines in the months ahead, but the reality is that this is a filtering through of price falls that have already taken place."
The RICS survey, which is sponsored by the Ulster Bank, reported that the balance of chartered surveyors in Northern Ireland reporting price falls in the October survey was 93.3 per cent, compared to 90.8 per cent in September
Derek Wilson, Head of Mortgages at the Ulster Bank, said the Bank of England's decision last week to cut interest rates by 1.5% to 3% would have a positive impact.
"First time buyers have been offered significant support to help them onto the property ladder which is important for the housing market as a whole," he said.
"Home owners and purchasers stand to benefit from last week's significant interest rate cut which will also support greater purchasing activity in the market."
Post a comment
Limit: 500 characters
View all comments that have been posted about this article
Offensive or abusive comments will be removed and your IP address logged and may be used to prevent further submissions. In submitting a comment to the site, you agree to be bound by BelfastTelegraph.co.uk's Terms of Use.
Posts submitted in UPPERCASE letters will be rejected.
Comments
72 Comments
I read HPC and have done for 2 years. although I don't post. I think it is clear that they are just ordinary folk who were left behind by the high prices of property and started to question the reasons for this.
And they were right to question There was no logic to the HPI we saw here. The best I heard was that it was the 'peace dividend'. There was never any attempt to quantify this. We were just expected to accept this as a valid reason for our overblown housing market.
So thank you to those on HPC. Through reading the site I decided to sell last February and I'm happily renting a much bigger house than I could hope to buy.
Posted by polythene pam | 21.11.08, 13:33 GMT
I also agree the HPC web site is full of investers rather than FTB's.
It's a shame FTB's are being lead by misleading VI's posing as genuine FTB's.
Posted by TheRealFubar | 20.11.08, 10:43 GMT
I despise people who misquote others with the intention of misleading - it's basically lying. BB you are a disgrace.
Full quote from Ulidia:
"Its 2008 and I already am a multi-millionaire ....
... in Philippine Pesos ....... though given the way sterling is falling these days, the Peso will soon be worth as much as the £ "
Posted by Davy | 19.11.08, 12:33 GMT
Think I'll pass on the invitaion Jack - I would only be called a stupid troll and told constantly what Nationwide's figures suggest even thought according to Location Location Location they only make up 7% of the mortgage market, that might be Phill trolling, who know.
Posted by Fubar | 17.11.08, 23:32 GMT
BB, if you read Ulidia's full post you specifically refer to, you will see if you scroll down that he adds ' in Philippine pesos!' I hope no FTB's go out and buy property on the back of this article in the belief that prices have bottomed out - keep holding off and property will get cheaper as recession bites further....
Posted by Burst Bubble | 17.11.08, 20:50 GMT
isn't it funny that people who want to prop up the property market are now turning to the sad tactic of accusing anyone speaking the truth, of being a vested interest invester who wants prices to fall further so they can add to their portfollio, well the truth is the overwellming majority are young first time buyers who have been priced out of the market for the last 3 years and unlike other vested interests only want to buy a reasonably priced house to live in to enjoy life and not to profit from others .
Posted by farmersteve | 16.11.08, 13:10 GMT
Fubar - The last resort in an argument is to attack personally the people making the counter argument when you have failed to defeat their argument. But your argument is weak - the HPC forum is an open website, anyone can join, anyone can post - even you! I am a member, like many other FTBs. I am no IT Professional, nor do I have any connection with any University, I have never owned a house, and my only vested interest is to see affordable house prices, something which I regard as socially responsible. Consider this an invitation to join! EVERYONE is welcome.
Posted by Jack | 15.11.08, 16:18 GMT
Did I hit a nerve Dave maybe you have a VI in house price drops, maybe you'll be able to expand you portfolio of property sooner than you think.
Maybe Ulidia can help with a deposit.
Quote from Ulidia from Housepricecrash site. "Its 2008 and I already am a multi-millionaire. (Typical First Time Buyer).
Posted by BB | 14.11.08, 20:38 GMT
BB are you saying that because someone works for UU they have a vested interest in falling house prices?
The University of Ulster quarterly report is produced in conjunction with the Bank of Ireland.
So you are saying a large mortgage lender would have a vested interest in falling house prices?
What's that saying "if you haven't got anything useful to say....."
Posted by Dave | 14.11.08, 13:54 GMT
Have to agree with Fubar on this one. I've read that web site for some time, it would appear the members are professionals in the IT/Teaching profession.
One works for Ulster University in IT and likes to promote his web site at every opportunity (Do Ulster Uni not produce a quarterly report on property) no VI there then.
At least Camthescot admitts their "Semi-unbiased view".
As for the report above there's as much chance of bottoming out as further price falls. There could be egg on a few faces no matter what way it goes. Nobody predicted 2% interest rate cut inside 5 weeks.
Posted by BB | 14.11.08, 09:02 GMT
Would anyone in denial over the Great Northern Ireland House Price Crash like to answer this question -
How does an average person earning an average salary of £21,000 afford an average house at £170,000 (i.e get a loan over 7 times salary and have a £17,000 deposit)?
Answer, they don't, therefore prices fall. So stop your moaning, crying and blaming and just accept that the investor bubble has burst and prices have a long long way to fall to get a position where they can be sustained by the local population. It will be easier for us all when you do.
Posted by Jack | 13.11.08, 19:06 GMT
Fubar, we must frequent a different Housepricecrash site.
Back to the article.
Yeah, so lets all rush out and buy a property.
Then we can lose our jobs and not be able to pay the mortgage, or watch our deposit that took ages to save for (especially with the crap interest rates) disappear as we go into negative equity, and then wait 20 years for the price to come back with wage inflation.
Yep, definitely an 'investment'.
Who knows, with houses priced properly, say back to 1996 prices, young couples might be able to afford a family and redress the young/ old balance.
Just think, an enjoyable existence, with a roof over our heads and happy families again instaed of being suckered in by Browns debt ridden existance.
Posted by Np | 13.11.08, 01:05 GMT
The thing about housepricecrash.co.uk is that the question of whether there would be a crash used to involve a vibrant discussion in the days when it was a question. Now that it's a historic fact, we're all too busy drinking coctails and laughing to provide the same discussions that we used to have.
Still, if we're starting to ask whether the bottom of the market is now in, well, you could listen to the wise people on HPC, who warned you about the crash long before it happened, or you could listen to the Vested Interests, who were wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.
It's your money...
Posted by TTID | 13.11.08, 00:05 GMT
I am a poster on the hpc website. I haven't owned a house but have discussed and helped advise others on the pitfalls of a house purchase in the current falling market. I am a mathematician and my reasoning is from analyzing past occurences of house price crashes and data from Nationwide/Halifax/Uni. of Ulster. I can only give a Semi-unbiased view, as like any FTB, I would like to be able to afford a house at some point and house prices must fall further for me to do this and I am well paid!
Posted by camthescot | 12.11.08, 11:35 GMT
I quite agree MJS about using property auctions as a barometer on live property purchasing sentiment - in fact at a "Super Auction" held last night in Magherafelt could not even sell one property lot. Do a google search for nipropertyauctions (all one word) and you'll see the results of this and many other NI property auctions since Feb 08 if you really want to see what level of money people are prepared to part with.
Posted by paul65 | 12.11.08, 09:38 GMT
I think the Ulster Bank and the estate agents urgently need to get some PR advice, this nonsense is making them look like the greedy fools that they are.
Posted by CHB | 12.11.08, 09:31 GMT
The thing with the Housepricecrash site is that it has about 10 regular posters who appear to be investers. Endless posts about how to invest in gold and when to buy into oil again. One poster even suggested now's the time to buy investment property in UK and at the moment property maybe a better investment due to the fact his portfolio of shares had been eroded by current events. Not to mention the endless ads on the site for property investment courses. Doesn't sound like a site for the poor FTB.
Be careful who's advice you listen to, it would seem there's a lot of VI's out there and some disguised as FTB's.
There are plans to buy at least 500 homes this year for social housing needs. There are 40k people on the waiting list for housing and a total 27k properties for sale.
You may not need to worry about buying a home, there might not be many left after social housing buy up first time buyer properties. It's simple maths.
Posted by Fubar | 12.11.08, 09:03 GMT
This article is a wind up right?? Prices bottoming out, very funny! Check the auctions out for the real a rapidly deteriorating state of the property market. Carnage for the forseeable future methinks!
Posted by MJS | 12.11.08, 00:45 GMT
Ok, simple test.
If you actually believe that 'the first shoots of recovery are starting to appear' then please head over to housepricecrash forums and make the jolly chaps there a bet of a least £1000 that this the bottom and next month will be flat or up.
Put your money where your mouth is instead of trying to con people into a crashing market.
Posted by Show me the money | 12.11.08, 00:11 GMT
Ladies and gentlemen of the forum, Thomas McClelland is not merely a spokesman for the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. Ooooh no. Thomas McClelland is an ESTATE AGENT. His company is Thomas McClelland McClelland & Salter in Bow Street, Lisburn. I rest my case.
--
Aside:
Don't worry your pretty little head about details like this. In the land of BT everything is rosey when the property market is concerned. I recommnend you all get out there and buy buy buy!!! Bye bye.
Posted by Agent Estate | 11.11.08, 22:26 GMT
72 Comments