Northern Ireland Executive must find share of £9bn savings, warn economists
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
The Northern Ireland Executive will have to find its share of £9 billion in efficiency savings announced by the Chancellor in the Budget on top of its part of £5 billion in savings announced last November, it was warned tonight.
Businesses advisors PricewaterhouseCoopers said if there was a little jam today there would be thin gruel tomorrow following the whopping efficiency savings.
PwC chief economist Philip McDonagh said the budget was one of three interlocking elements - massive borrowing, deep cuts in public spending growth and an economic recovery of "miraculous proportions".
He warned the Stormont Executive would have to review its spending priorities.
His tax expert colleague Larry Darby said for most taxpayers it would be a neutral or low-impact budget.
But Mr Darby warned: "What will worry tax experts and economists is the high level of optimism that underpins the Chancellor's borrowings and revised public sector spending plans.
"Treasury has not got too many estimates right in the past couple of years, if they get this wrong, we really will be in trouble."
The budget will kill off yet more jobs in the hospitality industry while encouraging more "binge drinking" of cheap booze sold as a loss leader by supermarkets, angry Northern Ireland publicans said.
A third rise in duty on alcohol in the last year - 2% this time - will sound the last order bell for many pubs across the country, they said.
At the same time independent retailers said they were disappointed at a budget which did very little for small businesses struggling with the recession.
They said up to £450 million could be taken out of the Executive's budgets over the next few years driving a coach and horses through the Programme for Government.
Business bosses in the Institute of Directors (IoD) said the Chancellor's growth assumptions were "overly optimistic" and Northern Ireland, given its dependence on the public purse, would bear a disproportionate burden as a result of the slowdown in public spending which will have to be introduced in the coming years.
There was little sign of anyone fighting to survive through the recession finding positives in Alastair Darling's budget.
Colin Neill, chief executive of the Federation of the Retail Licensed Trade (FRLT) in Northern Ireland, said: "It is beyond comprehension that the Chancellor should again raise the duty on alcohol, the third increase in the last year."
He said right across the UK hundreds of pubs were closing with the loss of thousands of jobs each month.
Mr Darling's announcement of an immediate 2% rise in duty on drink made a mockery of the Government's claim to be doing all it could to save jobs, he said.
"The Government says it is listening but in reality is only hearing what it wants to. It has ignored the voice of the licensed industry which has warned the government of the consequences of this unnecessary and reckless action."
Customers were being priced out of their locals with may reverting to the cheaper option of drinking at home.
"This latest increase will only serve to punish publicans further and reward the supermarkets who will continue to sell alcohol as a loss leader, encouraging binge-drinking that can lead to major health problems and further cost to the Exchequer, not just now but in the future."
Glyn Roberts , chief executive of the Northern Ireland Independent retail Trade Association, had little good to say .
"On balance this is a disappointing budget with very little for small businesses that are struggling with the recession," he said.
"During this challenging economic climate, we would have liked to have seen targets designed specifically to stimulate consumer spending and to encourage businesses to take on more staff."
Targets set to improve the situation for the under 25s through training were to be welcomed, but in reality would have little impact on unemployment, he said.
Mr Roberts warned: "It is not just the independent retail sector which will suffer - the local economy as a whole will be adversely affected due to the extra efficiencies required.
"In the longer term the NI Executive risks taking its share of the £15 billion efficiency savings. Cuts of this scale would take £450 million out of our local budgets over the next few years and inevitably impact on the Programme for Government."
Joanne Stuart, chairman of the IoD in Northern Ireland said the Chancellor's growth assumptions were overtly optimistic and would mean even more borrowing on top of the huge amounts he has already committed to.
She warned: "The growth in public spending will have to slow significantly over the next few years, and Northern Ireland, with its higher dependence on the public purse, will bear a disproportionate burden as a result."
Above inflation rises in fuel duty would also hit the SME economy, she said.
Ms Stuart added: "Mr Darling's headline-grabbing increase in tax for the higher paid is a political ploy. Its impact on raising money, either here or in the rest of the UK, is minimal."
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Colin Neill should realise that if pubs were less extortionate in their prices on alcohol, people may venture out more. It's a bit hypocritical of him accusing supermarkets as being responsible for binge-drinking. What is the main product on sale in any pub.
People have realised that you do not need to go to a pub to have a social drink. A carryout with friends at home can be as, if not more, enjoyable and is certainly a damn sight less expensive.
Binge-drinking is an individual's choice not a social culture and, while the duty on alcohol goes up by 2%, I can beat the price of a pint will go up by considerably more.
Posted by Ulysses31 | 23.04.09, 15:58 GMT
What about cutting out benefit's to all those waste of space people who don`t deserve them.. that would save quite a few quid and make everyone paying taxes feel much better...
Posted by James | 22.04.09, 17:31 GMT