Latest:

23:22 White Stripes blast 'war' advert
23:02 MPs back election reform referendum
22:32 Vakacegu citing dismissed
22:12 Three-sy does it for Cottagers
22:02 Dindane claims dramatic equaliser
22:02 Tuncay snatches point for Potters
22:02 Tevez and Adebayor on target for City
21:22 Ex-Beatle Macca visits the Commons

Northern Ireland house prices increase 2% but the market remains sluggish

Tuesday, 17 November 2009

Bookmark & Share

House prices in Northern Ireland have risen by more than 2% in the last quarter — raising hopes that the property crash has run its course.

The latest figures from the University of Ulster House Price Survey released yesterday put the average property price here at £164,017 during the third quarter of this year. This is a far cry from the heady days of the 2006/07 boom when the average house price here rocketed to £250,000.

And although the most recent figure is up 2.1% from £158,886 in the second quarter, housing experts have claimed any talk of dramatic house price growth is premature with house sales still sluggish.

The optimism of surveys earlier this year appears to have dissipated with some parts of the province experiencing falling property prices over the quarter.

And while homeowners in North Down are enjoying prices up by a whopping 26.8% this quarter and 7.6% in Belfast, the north and west of the province have seen prices plummet.

Coleraine/Limavady/North Coast saw values drop by 8.9% compared to the second quarter with a similar story in Derry/Strabane down 6.6%, Enniskillen/Fermanagh/South Tyrone a drop of 8.6% and Mid and South Down having a 5.5% decline.

Report authors professors Alastair Adair, Stanley McGreal, Louise Brown and David McIlhatton, said: “The recovery in the housing market is still piecemeal.”

The housing experts added, however: “Positive signs are the declining rates of annual price decrease across the different sectors of the market and an overall weighted increase over the last quarter of 2.1%.”

Affordability is improving with 20% of houses sold at or below £100,000, with nine out of 10 properties selling at or below £250,000. The most expensive part of Northern Ireland to live in is South Belfast, with an average price of £223,145.

Economist Alan Bridle of Bank of Ireland Northern Ireland said: “The overall climate for housing remains challenging. There is little substantive evidence as yet of a real breakthrough in the number of first-time buyers entering the market.”.

Comments

First |
Previous
1
2
Next
| Last

26 Comments

House prices will continue to bob around, (a little bit up, a little bit down) for some time to come; they have stabilised but the no's of sales seems slack to sluggish at best.

What we have seen over the past four years is a massive (mainly investor led) rise, mirrored by an equally massive drop, and we are now back to 2005 values, and ma rising.

Economic conditions, consumer confidence and sticky mortgage finance will freeze prices at this level at least until one of these things improves.

Without masses of first time buyers the housing market cannot turnover. Mortgage finance may well be less easy peasy to obtain than before when everybody seemed to be clamouring to buy; but on the upside it is now a more affordable and more stable market. Cash buy to let investors too will see that there is a better rate of return from rent than the interest in any bank account.

All in all a very unexciting headline, but one that we can get used to; up 2%, down 3%, up 4% and so on...

Posted by Ed | 17.11.09, 23:54 GMT

"Affordability is improving with 20% of houses sold at or below £100,000, with nine out of 10 properties selling at or below £250,000."

No, affordability is not improving.

The statistic just means 9 out of 10 people sold their homes for less than 250K, this does not mean that 9 out of 10 houses in the whole province are/going to be less than 250K.

I am (hopefully) going to be a first time buyer in a few years time and by the way things are looking - I'll be buying a tent.

Posted by P Wilson | 17.11.09, 23:24 GMT

Still high unemployment, still in recession. Until that is sorted out there won't be any recovery.

Posted by Rebecca | 17.11.09, 19:09 GMT

That 25 increase outpaces inflation! That is great news for the housing market.

Posted by david wayne osedach | 17.11.09, 18:47 GMT

What lazy inaccurate reporting.

A 26% increase in North Down in a QUARTER would be an annualised increase of over 100% which is totally preposterous.

Surely these quarterly figures state the increase from Q3 2008 to Q3 2009.

Posted by Stephen | 17.11.09, 17:39 GMT

Every day baz trawls the Belfast Telegraph site for a story about house prices and as soon as one pops up, there he is banging on another comment about how the crash is over and now is the time to steam in and land yourself a whopping mortgage. Not surprising really - as an estate agent, baz isn't partcularly busy these days and has to fill his day somehow.

Posted by Bunk Moreland | 17.11.09, 17:13 GMT

Fundamentals still point downwards.

Here is something to scare existing and prospective home owners. The BBC reported a rise in inflation today.

Due to Quantitative Easing a ballooning public deficit and the banks continuing to shore up their capital base we are just about to enter phase 2 of this recression.

Interest rates will go up to control inflation next year as QE takes effect and International debtors demand a better return from Gilts.

The banks still won't lend and NI's public sector will see massive cuts to balance the books.

House prices are a one-way bet....except this time it is down.

I would love to see a realistic article about prospects from the BT for a change.

Posted by MS | 17.11.09, 16:57 GMT

Its amazing how this subject gets so many people so passionate! - One quarter does not a trend make, but this coupled with last quarters results, is a good sign the market is recovering. You may not see that in your house yet, or for quite a while, but the people five miles away could see a big increase. Every area is like a micro-market, if you have a bunch of houses on your Street up for sale then it will be a while before you see any upside.

Posted by Stuart | 17.11.09, 16:28 GMT

I think that many of the posters here are envious that they didn't buy back in 2007.
With property a bargaing, get into the market now before you miss the boat!

Anyone who doesn't remortgage their piggybank immediately to investment in property has no business acumen.
This is the time to buy - this dead cat bounce had got legs.
But as my Granny told me - you cannae teach canny.

The average home owner with a portfolio of say 5 homes is well placed to continue benefitting from the recovereh.

Posted by Alan Brooke | 17.11.09, 14:29 GMT

RB

Huh? What? Are you on drugs?

You clearly missed the salient point entirely.

I couldn’t agree more about wishing to buy or not. But that wasn’t my point. I was merely making the same point that Robin did in his excellent post. Which is the constant, media driven fever that is associated with property prices in NI.

Personally, I would rather read about something more interesting. Next time I’ll give you an abacus and a chalk board. Maybe then you will get it.

Posted by Chris | 17.11.09, 14:24 GMT

The reason why we have seen stabilisation in the market is because of government stimulus which is about to run out.

Higher taxes, high unemployment, public spending cuts, credit unavailable, NAMA, pay freezes, local banks facing huge losses, ect...

House prices in NI are still overvalues and can really only go one way in 2010.

Watch this space!

Posted by Ollie | 17.11.09, 13:25 GMT

Rubbish statement I have been trying to sell an new two bed apartment in Belfast for the past 18 months for 130K cant even get a viewer

Posted by Mark | 17.11.09, 13:02 GMT

Looking at the regional figures - Coleraine, down 7.4% in Q2 but up 8.9% in Q3; N Down down 9.9% in Q2 but up 26.8% in Q3; Strabane/Derry up 5% in Q2 but down 6.6% in Q3. These stats tell one story and that is that their variance is far too wild and extreme to be relied upon (either for bearish OR bullish reasons). How can we go from a massive fall to a massive rise (or vice versa) ine one area in the space of 3 months? We can't, the wild flucuations (up and down) are caused by a small sample size too small for the results to be of any significance.

Posted by Paul | 17.11.09, 12:56 GMT

House prices should reflect the economy, not drive it. Those greedy 'investors' who jumped on the housing bandwagon, forcing up prices and denying many young people a chance to own a home, need to be taught a lesson and they haven't yet!

Posted by James | 17.11.09, 12:04 GMT

Theres no doubt that this report is objective and based on facts. However, I wonder how long (i guess a fortnight) before the media in NI is running a new story entitled "Property Prices Continue to Slide". Based on any piece of data or comment that gets emailed to them.

My house in Belfast was valued last week.... at 10k less than it was 3 months ago. i think that adds up to less than 2% growth.

Posted by Tom | 17.11.09, 11:24 GMT

Little fact.. I bought a belfast apartment for around £225k (3 years ago), two similar apartments were sold in recent weeks for ~£240k

Now this is probably not the norm as the apartment where all 1150sq foot penthouses - however it does show that these desirable properties are selling..

However, I fully expect the lower end of the market (terraces, semi-detached in the middle of nowhere, etc.) to be depressed for quite some time..

Posted by James | 17.11.09, 11:23 GMT

Baz & Alan, if I were you and so sure of the rise, I'd keep quiet and get investing rather than trying to convert all us doom sayers. Surely you want to fill your boots before the rest of us catch on.

Posted by Andy | 17.11.09, 11:22 GMT

The economist's comments are right - times are still difficult and there are more jobs being lost than gained - perhaps it is investors with money coming in while the market is low that have increased the price temporarily - overall there are still a glut of houses up for sale with small numbers out there willing to take the risk and buy when they are unsure of their job. The majority of people dont have thousands to buy houses with. The market wont move up much within the next 6 - 12 months in my humble opinion.

Posted by anon | 17.11.09, 11:05 GMT

Why is this survey now rubbish? Why would UUJ start making this up all of a sudden? These surveys were good enough evidence for the HPCers on the way down, but now they are 'rubbish'.

Time's up folks. Crash is over. You can't keep ignoring the evidence forever.

Posted by baz | 17.11.09, 10:38 GMT

Why is the media in Northern Ireland so obsessed with restarting the house price boom/resulting crash that has caused so much misery for so many people? Would it not be far more beneficial for residential house prices to gradually increase in value in line with normal macroeconomic indicators such as inflation? The UK and ROI are the only countries in Europe that indulge in such nonsense...

Posted by the real robin | 17.11.09, 10:05 GMT