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Belfast Telegraph exclusive poll on United Ireland

By Adrian Rutherford
Monday, 15 March 2010

Poll: The future of Northern Ireland

How would you vote in a referendum on NI joining a United Ireland?

Yes - Ireland should be united	61%
No - NI should remain part of the UK	37%
Don't know	2%

312 comments

New poll findings highlight a diversity of opinion over whether the province will still be part of UK in 2021

The people of Northern Ireland are split on whether the province will survive as a separate entity until its centenary in 2021, a Belfast Telegraph poll has revealed.

At the start of a week of celebrations marking St Patrick’s Day, the poll sheds new light on the long-standing question of nationhood in Northern Ireland.

It provides another fascinating snapshot of public opinion at a key time in our political history.

The vote is split — 42% agreeing and 42% disagreeing — on whether Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom by 2021. One in four Protestants (24%) said they thought there will be a united Ireland by then.

That year will mark 100 years since the Government of Ireland Act — which created Northern Ireland — came into force.

The poll also flags up the impact of the economic downturn in the Republic, with 55% of Catholics admitting a united Ireland is less likely because of its fiscal struggles.

Today’s survey is the latest in a series of Belfast Telegraph/Inform Communication polls which examine public opinion in post-devolution Northern Ireland.

The majority of respondents, 55%, believe Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK.

Asked how they would vote in a future referendum on a united Ireland, 36% said they would opt for unification. A breakdown shows 69% of Catholics in support of a united Ireland, with one in four stating Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK.

The last referendum on Irish unification was held in 1973 and found 98.9% in favour of Northern Ireland staying part of the UK.

However, the poll was boycotted by most nationalists, and represented around only 57% of the electorate at the time.

There have been growing calls for another referendum in recent years.

In 2002 then Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble said a referendum would cement Northern Ireland’s position within the UK.

Meanwhile Sinn Fein minister Conor Murphy has also spoken about his hope that a referendum could be held before 2016.

The Belfast Telegraph survey confirms that nationality remains a key issue for people here.

Questioned on its relevance, 56% said it was “very important” with a further 32% describing it as “important”. Amongst Protestants, there appears to be a generation gap with 94% of those aged 65 and over describing it as “very important”, compared to 38% of those aged between 18 and 29.

Some 39% of those polled describe their nationality as “British”, with a further 18% stating they are “Northern Irish”. Again, there is a significant difference in responses from people of a certain age. Older people are more likely to consider themselves British, with those aged between 18 and 29 instead opting for Northern Irish status.

Meanwhile 42% said they considered themselves Irish, the vast majority (83%) being members of the Catholic community.

The opinion poll was undertaken by public affairs consultancy Inform Communications over the period March 8-11 2010. Across Northern Ireland 1020 adults were interviewed.

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312 Comments

I want northern Ireland to join Ireland. By the way ulster and northern Ireland are not the same thing

Posted by Andrew | 08.05.10, 13:07 GMT

I don't understand some of the posts here. Why are people quoting statistics about the Republic from 1968? The Republic is a wealthy country now, recession or not. Wage levels and social welfare benefits are high. We are building infrastructure at a rate Northern Ireland can only dream about. We're still the one of biggest receivers of Foreign Direct Investment in the world. On the other hand, many of you seem happy to live in the midst of a failed economy. Are you not ashamed of the subsidy the North receives annually? You are like a bunch of cry-babies fighting with each other each day while English people pay your bills.

A United Ireland would bring massive benefits to both the Republic and NI. The border regions would be revitalised and Belfast would become the second city in a country of 6 million people. Right now, Britain pays your bills but you are treated like a backwater!

Posted by Dublin Dave | 22.04.10, 14:34 GMT

I think the BT should run a poll asking the Southern Irish people if they still want Northern Ireland (never mind Ni's loyalist population) in a so-called United Ireland...I imagine republicans wont like the results.

Posted by sean d's nemesis | 23.03.10, 16:49 GMT

@ Euskal,

"Should any minority have the right to break off at will and carry others with them?".

Lol
'Euskal Herria'
Surely not. I mean, its not like the Basques have been trying to do just that, is it?

Posted by Dave, East Belfast | 23.03.10, 15:10 GMT

@ Euskal, actually I agree with you regarding the current state of affairs in the UK. It perfectly illustrates my point that while a country may be politically unified by an 'Act of Union' or somesuch, it does not mean that the people of that political entity are, in any way, united.
I don't think that there has really been a united UK for several decades now. It does not, however, mean that there are not groups within all four countries who consider themselves to be British(if not before their Englishness or whatever, then alongside it).
Also,the Bruces were not a Scottish Gaelic family, although I believe that Edward's mother's family had Gaelic Blood. The Bruces were Norman French.
Once again, unified island of Ireland under a foreign ruler but the people were not united and many of the Gaelic chieftains opposed him.

Posted by Dave, East Belfast | 23.03.10, 15:03 GMT

@ Bren, so your wife earns 56K per annum? That would suggest that the 18% cut in pay would still leave her earning slightly above the 'current' average public service wage. That added to your salary would lead me to believe that despite the cuts, your family is still fairly 'well heeled'.
I am not sure that your average public service salary figures are correct(though I am prepared to concede that they may be). If, like in NI, the vast bulk of staff are employed as AO or lower grades then I believe that somehere around 30K is closer to the mark.
A further 18% taklen off that figure in the curret economic environment is a bit harder to just accept, isn't it?
Out of interest, what is the average salary in the private sector?
Anyway, ROI cannot afford to pay all the NI public servants(Indisputable fact). Apart from sectarian goons and romantic dreamers, few NI public servants will be in any hurry to join a UI.

Posted by Dave, East Belfast | 23.03.10, 14:48 GMT

I tried to bite my lip about this poll. This is Northern Ireland part of the U.K. If you don't like it then why do you spend our pound, use our transport, take our benifits? This poll is open to the world or at least pople that have access to the internet! This means that people from Ireland can vote. Yes there is bad on both sides. Mayb a poll sould be open to Northern Ireland only, the people it will affect most.

Posted by craig88 | 23.03.10, 14:37 GMT

I think the BT should run a poll asking the English people if they still want Northern Ireland in the UK...I imagine Unionists wont like the results.

Posted by Sean d. | 22.03.10, 20:29 GMT

Hmm funny that the statistics are in green and orange. How ridiculous is this pole, questioning a country and a peoples sovereignty.

In response to this and all the talk of a United Ireland that i am hearing of late, i have made a group based on the Ulster Covenant of 1912 campaign to get Ulster Day recognised as a bank holiday and to try and put to bed all this nonsense of a United Ireland.

Posted by Mark Shannon | 22.03.10, 19:26 GMT

''I doubt very much there was a 100% vote for anything and even if there was chances are if they were 18 then and eligible to vote then they are more than likely passed away''

Dear oh dear Grainne, logic just isn't your strongpoint is it.

If, on the creation of the Northern statelet, a statelet which was ostensibly founded on democratic principles (!), then why were voters who democratically expressed their will to be part of a united independent Ireland ignored?

Secondly, when has 100 per cent ever being the threshold for any law to be passed or government to be elected?

Your reasoning is absolutely absurd. A simple majority is all that is required, and vastly more than that did, and continues, to want a united Ireland in the aforementioned areas.

Why was their democratic voice ignored?

''And no, to whom you pay your taxes to does not determine your Nationality''

Then we agree. The rest of your post is a nonsensical rant, so let's just leave it there.

Posted by Euskal Herria | 22.03.10, 16:58 GMT

No Surrender God Save ULSTER

Posted by Tom | 22.03.10, 16:07 GMT

lets get the facts

martin mc guinness will be first minister
sinn fein largest party in ni
cross border bodies working and co operation between psni and garadi
scotland will get freedom and break up uk and each region will break away
ni will have no choice but to go into some kind of federal ireland
it will happen quicker than you think

Posted by peterk | 22.03.10, 10:10 GMT

It is truly AWESOME to read some of the 19th century mentality presented here. David (19/3) makes more sense than all the hysterics put together.

Try to understand that Irish history did not start in the early 1600s, or to put it another way on page 420 of a 500 page book.

English/British presence in ANY part of Ireland was always as a conquering OCCUPIER, never as a welcome friend, or due to the natural evolution of a country.

But a sovereign independent UI is probably not an option for another 50 years. By then most of the present day brainwashed "loyalists" will have passed on, and though their mindset will be passed on to some, inevitably and most of all JUSTIFIABLY Ireland will be united by choice. And the rest of the world - including England - will hardly notice.

To all you loyalists in 2010 :

When you FINALLY open the gates you will discover that there are NO barbarians outside. Just a forward looking people admired and respected by the rest of the world.

Posted by Fair Play | 22.03.10, 07:17 GMT

Philip Lyne
What have you been drinking Phil and would you tell me where I can buy it ? I also would sometimes like to be on another planet.

Gareth
Some really deep soul searching thinking there Gareth - not.

Ulster loyalist
Is that why Carson refused to be PM of NI, which he never wanted to see created in the 1st place. He wanted all of Ireland to remain in the UK. And thank God we didn't.

DAVID - Very well put and more importantly probably true.

JOE CARSON - And what will you think/do when the majority in NI disagree with you Joe ?

Peace to you all lads - including the deranged living in 1910 instead of 2010.

Posted by Observer 2 | 22.03.10, 06:01 GMT

CHANTELLE
Calm down girl, and even if you can't, here is a LONG overdue geography lesson for you :

NI is NOT part of Britain.
Britain is an ISLAND to the east of the island of Ireland.

NI is at present part of the UK of Great Britain & NI.

Ulster is one of four provinces on the island of Ireland. The other three are in the Republic.

The "Ulster" you know consists of 6 counties. There are in fact 9 counties in Ulster. The other 3 counties in Ulster are part of the Republic of Ireland, together with all of the other 3 provinces.

If anyone should consider going "back where you belong" it is YOURSELF and like minded people.

Those you criticize are the original owners and natives of Ulster, many of them for well over 2,000 years . You and yours are SETTLERS from Britain who arrived a little over 400 years ago. Spread the word.

Are you still with me Chantelle ?

Love the beautiful French name by the way.

Peace to you and yours.

Posted by Observer 2 | 21.03.10, 12:06 GMT

propaganda i agree also bringing poll out on run up to paddies day was biased ,i was able to vote from spain, that being so im sure a huge vote came from down south, four million population down south, as vote can only be based from views from northern ireland ,therefore the statistics do not stand up, actually they show the bigger vote inside the north to be no. letting the south vote is like letting people of similar interests to us vote like the falklands and gibralter,if that had of happened we would have had a resounding no.

Posted by fair play | 21.03.10, 11:58 GMT

a united ireland.. NEVER!!!!!!

Posted by KD | 21.03.10, 11:15 GMT

"If you want more recent history, check out the 1919 general election where people from Derry City, Tyrone, Fermanagh and South Armagh all voted for independence candidates" - I doubt very much there was a 100% vote for anything and even if there was chances are if they were 18 then and eligible to vote then they are more than likely passed away - not really relevant. And no, to whom you pay your taxes to does not determine your Nationality - but if people feel so strongly about being Irish and are paying towards the Treasury in Westminster - then yes, pretty stupid when you could nip over the border get gainful employment and boast the Irish Treasury - but that would mean paying higher taxes - the expression "cake and eat it" springs to mind

Posted by Grainne | 20.03.10, 21:41 GMT

Whilst I don't particularly like Northern Ireland being part of the UK, I think that 'uniting' Ireland will only be a cause of conflict that will only divide the people of Ireland, not to mention the total impracticality of it. Now that we are now under many EU laws and legislation, the difference between a Tricolour or a Union Jack flying at City Hall and Stormont matters very little. I don't think a serious effort should be made of Northern Ireland joining a United Ireland. I honestly think it would be a waste of time and money, and would achieve very little. It will only antagonise unionists and stir up conflict. Northern Irish politicians need to work together in Stormont to solve more immediate problems.
Northern Ireland can exist united as both a part of the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom. As I said, it doesn't matter what flag flies. As long as the right decisions are being made on the important issues - healthcare, policing, education etc.

Posted by Ciaran Gallagher | 20.03.10, 20:54 GMT

Just also want to say to anyone argueing against a United Ireland because of the recession - this in itself is reason enough to vote for a United Ireland, because right now so much money is being lost through the duplication of public services on this island for such a small population. Also, the island economy will never reach it's full potential until partition is removed. Unionists themselves would benefit from a UI by having more direct control over their taxes, and from a business perspective being part of a low tax economy would enable them to attract more investment to the North than they can now by being part of the UK which is a high tax economy, and where Stormont has no control whatsoever over it's tax affairs.

To all Unionists - its the economy stupid! Thats all people care about when it comes down to it, and a UI makes economic sense. Shouting "NO SURRENDER, FOR GOD AND ULSTER" during a debate won't win over voters in any referendum on a United Ireland...

Posted by Jim | 20.03.10, 17:16 GMT