One in four employers in Northern Ireland are expecting to axe jobs this year as the credit crunch tightens its grip.

The shock figure was revealed today in a business confidence survey run in conjunction with the Belfast Telegraph.

Key findings of the Goldblatt McGuigan Belfast Telegraph Business Survey of local employers include:

• 59% express little or no optimism for the local economy in 2009

• l 37% of businesses are anticipating a slump in sales this year

• l 60% cite the economy as the biggest challenge facing business

• l Almost one in five businesses are concerned about cash flow

• l More than two-thirds state the Executive had no impact on business in 2008.

The in-depth analysis comes as the UK braces itself to be officially declared in recession this month following two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

However, despite the challenging economic climate, the local analysts insisted it was not all doom and gloom on the horizon for the local business community.

They highlighted the more positive findings of the survey, which include:

• 27% are anticipating a growth in sales in 2009

• One in four business are optimistic about the Northern Ireland economy over the next 12 months

• 14% of employers are planning to increase staffing levels

• Just 7% are concerned about reduced profitability

• Only 1% cited lack of skills as a challenge.

The research highlights a high degree of uncertainty across the business community.

But the main anxiety is whether businesses will be able to sustain their position in 2009.

Commenting on the findings of the survey, Michael Clarke, director of management consultancy services at Belfast-based Goldblatt McGuigan, said: “While it is clear from their responses that the majority of businesses are entering 2009 with a sense |of uncertainty, it is equally clear |that not all is ‘doom and gloom’.

“While not optimistic as such for the year ahead, a significant percentage of businesses feel up to the challenge and see opportunities in difficult times.

“The phrase ‘battening down the hatches’ seems appropriate to describe the strategy for many surveyed while others, though in no sense looking forward to storms ahead, certainly feel well prepared to weather what the next year will bring.”

Mr Clarke added: “No one in the Northern Ireland Executive could be happy to see 71% of business describing their efforts as having had no impact on their businesses during 2008 and no doubt they will see the package of measures to help kick-start the local economy announced just before Christmas as key steps in improving their credibility with local businesses.

“That said, it is clear from our findings that local businesses are not naive in thinking that government can solve the current problem for them.

“What they are looking for government to do — nationally and regionally — is to stimulate the local economy through public sector procurement and provide them with the financial support in terms of funding towards the research and development and capital investment that will enable them to take the strategic action needed to sustain their businesses for 2009 and beyond.”

Issues that the Executive needs to tackle include planning legislation and releasing funding for projects, according to several Northern Ireland businesses.

Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey forecasts that unemployment in Northern Ireland will soar from 4.3% to 7% this year.

Mr Ramsey said: “Northern Ireland’s economic downturn has been compounded by the sharp deterioration in global demand. This will affect Northern Ireland’s exporters and we expect a sharp fall in exports in 2008 and 2009. This in turn will lead to significant job losses.”

Michael Petticrew, financial director of Dennison Commercials, said: “Freeing up planning legislation would go a long way to helping companies such as ours who spend a great deal of time being unnecessarily caught up in red tape. Fast tracking public expenditure projects such as building schools and hospitals would also help.”

Garvagh-based TBF Thompson’s managing director Andy Magowan said: “In order to help the local business community the Executive, as a matter of urgency, needs to fast-track planning applications that will immediately benefit the construction industry.

“They also need to release the funding for the major public sector construction schemes such as the proposed social housing developments and upgrading our infrastructure.”

The Goldblatt McGuigan Business Survey was conducted by Perceptive Insight Market Research by telephone interview among 110 local businesses, representing a cross section of private sector enterprises, large and small