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Northern Ireland says yes to same-sex marriage, latest polling finds

Although results could be much closer after real referendum campaign, warns pollster

The Northern Ireland public would vote overwhelmingly in favour of same-sex marriage, the latest Lucid Talk tracker poll has found.

The Northern Ireland polling company runs regular online tracker polls on topical issues to register changes, trends and opinions.

Its established Northern Ireland opinion panel consists of 5,017 members over the age of 18. It is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland.

For December tracker poll topics covered abortion, the constitution and the legalisation of Marijuana.

Also covered was the subject of same-sex marriage and if, as the Republic had, a referendum was held in Northern Ireland, what would the result be.

For a period of 60 hours between November 30 and December 2, 1,536 people responded to the survey. Those responses were boiled down to 1,080 in order to extrapolate the results to represent Northern Ireland.

And almost 70% of people said they were in support of it.

Lucid Talk managing director, Bill White explains: "As we see a healthy majority of Northern Ireland would support same-sex marriage.

"However, there are some warning signs. A majority of unionists (graph 2) are still against same-sex marriage, while nationalist/republicans (Graph 3) and Alliance/Green/PBP/Others (Graph 4) are overwhelmingly in favour, with both groups showing 90-95% support for same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland.

"However, with a majority of unionists still against, this indicates that in a full blown referendum situation - with the DUP electoral machine in full opposition mode - then the final result could much closer than our polling might suggest."

"Not surprisingly the vast majority of young people (i.e. 18-24 year-olds) support same-sex marriage (Graph 5). This includes a majority of unionists within this age-group at 71%.

"This latter result goes against the overall unionist 'against' score of 54%."

LucidTalk is a member of all recognised professional Polling and Market Research organisations, including the UK Market Research Society (UK-MRS), the British Polling Council (BPC), and ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations).

You can follow LucidTalk on Twitter.

Graph 1
Graph 1
Graph 2: Unionist votes
Graph 3: All nationalists and republicans
Graph 4: Alliance, Green, PBP and others
18 to 24 age group

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