Belfast Telegraph

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Viewpoint: Cool-down steadies housing market

Friday, 28 September 2007

The bubble may not have burst, but there are a number of indications that a long overdue correction is taking place in Northern Ireland's housing market. Prices have stabilised - and fallen in some areas - and the number of first-time buyers is down by almost a fifth over the past year.

The tables are gradually turning in what was for so long a seller's market, and in some locations, supply is now exceeding demand. As the Belfast Telegraph reported last night, developers in Bangor and Cloughmills are now offering incentives such as turnkey packages and pre-paid stamp duty in a bid to shift their properties.

Although prices are still excessive, this is a sign of hope which may yet mean that young people on modest salaries can aspire to home ownership. In recent times they have been priced out of the market.

There was a certain inevitability about the slowdown in house prices. The market has been overheating in recent years, and the 51% year on year increase in prices which was recorded this spring was clearly unsustainable.

According to an economic survey by Davy stockbrokers, average house prices in Northern Ireland are 15% higher than in the Republic, but wage levels are 25% lower. In such circumstances, something has to give and the tide is turning.

Particularly hard pressed is the buy-to-let market and the forest of to let signs at some recently completed apartment complexes tells its own story. Investors who bought at the top of the market are now finding it difficult to balance their books, and any hike in interest rates could result in an increase in the rate of repossessions.

The market has not collapsed but if the present trend of falling prices continues, property values should return to more realistic levels. One benefit may be an end to the practice of gazumping, which leaves so many prospective buyers feeling disillusioned.

That said, demand is such that house prices, particularly in desirable areas, are unlikely to plummet. A realignment could however make it possible for first-time buyers, who are flexible as regards location, to get their feet on the first rung of the ladder.

Despite the cooling of the market, bricks and mortar still represents a solid investment. But young people must not ignore other options, in particular a pension. Tax relief can make even a poor performing pension more lucrative than a property investment in a market in which prices are falling.

In light of recent developments, the advice to all prospective purchasers is to shop around and negotiate hard. And if one door closes, there is every prospect that another will open.

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