Where do DUP and the province go now?

Opinion

As Ian Paisley prepares to step down from power, Chief Reporter Chris Thornton says his departure will raise a number of issues for those who pick up where he left off

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Ian Paisley's political demise was once probably high on his wish list. But Gerry Adams was actually a little worried last night by the Doc's departure.

"My only concern," the Sinn Fein president said, "is that those within the DUP who are against power-sharing - and there are some - would use any instability in the leadership or any question around the leadership to set back the progress we have made thus far."

It's a genuine concern. Mr Paisley's departure may have been expected, even engineered, within the upper echelons of the DUP. And Peter Robinson's succession to the top spot may be as sure a thing as you can get in politics.

But no leadership transition is an easy thing, especially when you consider that the DUP has known no other leader its history, spanning more than 35 years. Former favourites may find themselves displaced by the new leader's cronies. Jostling for prime appointments can divert a party's energies until a new hierarchy settles into place.

All this need not mean anything for the stability of the regime at Stormont. But it is received political wisdom that Mr Paisley's endorsement was needed to sell the deal, mainly because of his influence over the main body of unionists sceptical about power-sharing with Sinn Fein.

Mr Adams' concern reflects the uncertainty about how those critics will respond to Mr Paisley's departure. There was an idea that most of them had shrugged their shoulders and moved off into retirement before their onetime leader, but that notion was rattled by the Dromore by-election, which cost the DUP a seat on Banbridge council.

Late in 2006 and early last year, when the DUP was steering towards the power-sharing deal, many of those unhappy at being in Stormont with Sinn Fein found it impossible to voice their criticism. When you've been devoted to everything Mr Paisley said for three or four decades, one said, it was awful difficult to stand up against him. With that inhibition removed, the sceptics could be emboldened and troublesome for the second leader of the DUP.

But Gerry Adams' concern on that score may be ill-founded. Mr Paisley's departure might actually serve to help cement the DUP into the power-sharing structures.

Certainly the more image conscious in the party, sensitive to the effects of the Chuckle Brothers, will try to present a more sombre image when dealing with their partners in Sinn Fein.

And arguably the bitterest medicine for unionists has long since been swallowed. Now they want to see that it was worth it - and that means achieving results.

Mr Robinson, if he is indeed to take over as First Minister, is the sort of politician who would be, in management speak, results-focussed. That cuts both ways: in accomplishing things that please his voters and in managing the things that will irk them, like the remaining thorns around the devolution of justice and the Irish Language Act.

The DUP that Peter Robinson is expected to take over is very different to the one founded by Ian Paisley. There is a new breed within it, many of them young, many brought in by the decline of the UUP, and most of them in Mr Robinson's sphere. They have an interest in making Stormont work, because for those seeking a career in politics, it's their best chance.

But for the majority of the DUP, politics has been Paisleyism. They've known no other. That means the retiring leader, free from any constraints of office or party management, will remain a powerful voice on the sidelines. His successor will ignore him at his peril.