Normally, major tragedies follow a kind of pattern. There is the initial
horror of the event, followed by frantic planning and then an effective
action plan unwinds, alleviating some of the suffering.
Even the Boxing Day tsunami of 2004, which initially overwhelmed agencies by
its sheer scale, saw massive shipments of aid and experience delivered to
victims less than a week after the event, staving off a wave of disease and
hunger. Burma, however, is different.
More than a week on, the death toll is still rising, the country's military
junta are revealed as cruel xenophobes (no surprise, there) and a second
wave of death is threatening. No-one is still sure how many people were
killed by Cyclone Nargis as it smashed into the Irrawaddy delta.
More than 100,000 seems to be an agreed figure. But another statistic is
starting to be rise up from the now-devastated swampland that is Irrawaddy.
The figure is 1.5 million, and it is the number of deaths now being forecast
if a public health catastrophe is allowed to develop in Burma. Politicians
the world over must continue to press Burma's rulers to allow effective
intervention. Failing that, they must consider other, more robust measures
to get the aid through.
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