Tipping point reached at by-election

Politics

The DUP may well be a steadier ship for Paisley Jnr's departure but it still has some choppy waters to negotiate, says our Political Correspondent Noel McAdam

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Even before he swiftly turned on his heels to head back inside the relative safety of Stormont Castle, the focus on Ian Paisley Jnr had somewhat faded.

Journalists gathered to hear his resignation announcement had begun to ask: " If Junior is going, how far can his father be behind?"

The departure of the Junior Minister further weakens the First Minister and DUP leader, whose future has already been subject to intense speculation.

One rumoured scenario in recent weeks had Ian snr agreeing to 'do the decent thing', at an agreed point later this year, in return for guarantees that Junior would be allowed to remain.

It would be unfair to characterise almost anyone in the DUP as a Paisley 'opponent'. But there are those increasingly willing to look at a post-Paisley era and recognise that he may have outlived his usefulness.

There seems to be a growing consensus that the First Minister stays to preside over the massive economic conference in May but that, by the autumn, he should consider standing down.

But even a few weeks back Junior Minister Junior seemed unassailable as long as his father remained. And it is not so long ago he was being increasingly touted as the most likely next party leader. All that altered yesterday when the "men in grey coats" proved once again that, in politics, no one is untouchable.

While he claimed the unceasing torrent of speculation against him had become a "distraction", in fact Ian jnr had himself become a "problem ".

Post-Dromore his resignation was the strongest signal the party could send to tell the electorate: "We are listening." Yet it also risks increasing the wobble of last week's by-election.

Unease within certain sections of the party since the power-sharing deal with Sinn Fein will have been considerably exacerbated by the surprise Dromore defeat.

It may only be partly ameliorated by Paisley jnr's departure, not least since he has remaining questions to answer.

But in a party where discipline falls somewhere between army squad and control freakery, Ian jnr had played fast and loose with protocol and nicety.

He came to symbolise the growing appearance of arrogance by the party in government and seemed to undermine his deputy leader Peter Robinson's emphasis, most recently in his major Budget address, on transparency and accountability.

Dromore was a turning point. Privately officials and colleagues have " briefed" against Ian jnr for some months "off the record".

After a number of DUP MPs deliberated in Lisbon at the weekend, his fate was sealed. But the ripples within his party will reverberate for some time yet.