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Confidence grows as DUP gears up for election

Monday, 23 November 2009

The DUP conference clearly showed that it is gearing up for the next election bout.

After a flabby performance earlier this year, it’s back building up its muscles and sharpening its reflexes. If the party’s confidence has been hit by the disappointing showing in the European campaign, it was not showing.

Nor was there any sign whatsoever at the La Mon Hotel of dissatisfaction with Peter Robinson as leader.

He was greeted with enthusiastic cheers and Union Flag waving in the packed conference room. Robinson gave a well-crafted, thoughtful speech, noticeable for containing little invective against Sinn Fein. It was also capable of being interpreted in different ways.

One of yesterday’s Sunday newspaper headlines was: “Northern Ireland — first minister vows not to abandon assembly”.

The NIO will no doubt take comfort from signs that Robinson is preparing the party for an eventual deal on devolution of policing and justice powers.

But with no hint of any timetable, the question remains on how long Sinn Fein is prepared to wait.

An Assembly election next year, as well as a General Election, is not being ruled out by observers.

The DUP is ready for a fight with Jim Allister and his TUV party. The strategy is clearly to portray him as wanting a return to direct rule, with a strong Dublin influence.

A major theme of Robinson’s speech — and the party’s glossy new brochure Building on Success — is an emphasis on defending the power-sharing deal with Sinn Fein.

That was two-and-a-half years ago, or three if you date the pact. It’s a sign of the TUV impact that the DUP is re-tracing its steps, and effectively admitting that it did not do enough to sell the deal when it actually happened.

Robinson’s party has grounds for confidence on the general election front. There are not too many big name big hitters lining up to challenge its sitting MPs, with the exception of Allister himself in North Antrim.

The DUP is also not short of a bob or two, as the lavish Building on Success publication shows. An array of organisations also paid for the privilege of having stalls at the conference on Saturday.

The DUP’s charge that the TUV wants green-tinged direct rule with unionism on the margins will be a constant theme in the months ahead.

It has an echo in recent history. David Trimble and the UUP used to argue that isolation would have been unionism’s fate if he had walked away from a deal in 1998.

Robinson’s speech contained a well-aimed dig at unionists who hanker for a return to majority rule devolution. He said they appear to “seriously suggest that we may yet have a government which denies the fact and existence of more than 40% of our population”.

Yet the communal arithmetic was not that different in past decades when the DUP strenuously opposed power sharing.

The DUP clearly believes the expenses issue hurt it in the European campaign and will not be such a factor at the polls again. The message was hammered home on Saturday that the party has fully accepted the Kelly Report from the official inquiry on MP expenses.

That is open to question — Kelly’s clear preference was for an end to double-jobbing by 2011, while the DUP’s date is 2015.

However, the Kelly Report does offer the opportunity of drawing a line under the Westminster expenses saga.

Against that, the review of Stormont Assembly pay and expenses is not yet concluded. It may not be an entirely smooth process.

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