European union officials expect Ireland to cave in and hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in Autumn 2009.

An internal EU briefing paper, entitled 'The Solution to the Irish Problem', predicts that officials will accede to the re-run at a meeting of Europe's leaders on October 15.

And there are rumours that French President Nicolas Sarkozy will be back in Dublin before the end of the year "with a message for the Irish".

According to the paper, a second referendum will follow a guarantee Ireland won't lose its European Commissioner and "declarations" on neutrality, abortion and taxation.

These issues were identified as key issues for Irish voters in the first Lisbon Treaty referendum, in research published yesterday by Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin.

"The main issues of concern are the composition of the Commission, the corporate tax base, workers' rights, neutrality and abortion," he said.

Mr Martin added that the Government would not be putting forward any definitive proposals on how to deal with the result of the Lisbon Referendum at next month's European Council meeting.

Amidst French and German pressure to hold a second vote, Autumn 2009 has emerged as the favoured date ahead of the EU summit on the future of the Lisbon Treaty next month.

The Government has refused to rule out a second referendum following the 'No' vote in June, but officials insist all options are on the table.

A spokesman said the Lisbon debate would now move into the wider political and public domain. He stressed voting behaviour research was only the first of many steps, and that debate on all options would continue in the Oireachtas European Affairs Committee.

But the 'Solution to the Irish Problem' document -- from an influential group of French officials called Les Amis du Traite de Lisbonne or Friends of the Lisbon Treaty -- suggests that EU officials have their own ideas on how to proceed.

The text is by a senior Paris-based European official called Jean-Guy Giraud -- and is regarded as reflecting the view in France, current holder of the EU's rotating presidency.

"The second Irish referendum could take place, on this new basis, during Autumn 2009, pushing back the coming into force of the Treaty of Lisbon until 2010," the document states.

Other EU officials have confirmed that the autumn 2009 referendum proposal is gaining ground in informal and formal talks between diplomats.

"This date is the one being mentioned," said a source.

Mr Sarkozy yesterday lunched with senior Euro-MPs in Paris to discuss the Lisbon Treaty and other issues.

"It is clear that the only question over a second referendum for Sarkozy is that of timing," said one MEP after the lunch.

Mr Sarkozy is said to be planning another visit to Dublin in December "with a message for the Irish".

Hans-Gert Pottering, President of the European Parliament, meanwhile, is still pushing for Ireland to vote again before next year's euro-elections -- amid fears they will become a referendum on the EU Treaty.

Key to a deal on a second Irish vote will be the future size of the European Commission. Talks on the appointment of a new EU executive, due in October 2009, are underway -- with diplomats considering extending the incumbents' mandate until 2010, clearing the way for a second Irish referendum in October next year.