Belfast Telegraph

Thursday 18 September 2014

Labour struggles as election date looms

Gordon Brown will go to Buckingham Palace tomorrow in the knowledge that his party faces an uphill battle.

The Tories' average poll lead, which a few weeks ago had narrowed to as little as five or six points, has now widened once more to eight points, following the Budget and the Conservatives' promise to scale back next year's increase in national insurance.

Labour's recovery in the polls was already beginning to look rather fragile even before Alistair Darling got up in the Commons chamber with his Budget box. From a brief high point of 33% at the end of February, the party had slipped back to an average rating of just 31%.

Yet despite praising Mr Darling's performance at the dispatch box, voters gave the Budget the thumbs-down, most polls found. And once they had had a day or so to assess its contents, Labour's support edged down yet further to just 30%.

However, the Conservatives are not the only party to have made progress. The Liberal Democrats have edged up a point too since Vince Cable was widely thought to have emerged ahead in Channel 4's Chancellors' debate.

Nick Clegg's troops now look as though they will enter the election campaign in almost as strong a position as they started the 2005 contest.

This apparent Liberal Democrat advance will worry David Cameron. An eight-point lead over Labour might just be enough to secure the Tories a narrow overall majority if, as several polls suggest, they secure an above-average swing in marginal seats held by Labour. But it will not be sufficient if at the same time the Liberal Democrats manage to fend off the Conservative attack on their key marginal seats.

In any event, if the swing since 2005 were to be uniform across the country, the latest poll figures point to a Tory tally of 303 seats, Labour 263, Liberal Democrats 51 and others 33.John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University

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