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Northern Ireland government teeters on edge of disaster
Thursday, 28 January 2010
Stormont was left teetering on the edge of disaster last night after the British and Irish Prime Ministers flew home without a devolution deal.
The DUP and Sinn Fein failed to clinch agreement on the transfer of policing and justice powers after more than 48 hours of almost continuous negotiations in Hillsborough.
Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government could now just have days left to survive.
Grim-faced premiers Gordon Brown and Brian Cowen gave the parties another two days — effectively until lunchtime on Friday — to come up with a compromise, which would also have to incorporate an agreed formula on parades.
But privately officials admitted the expectation is that if the two main parties prove unable to close an agreement in the intense atmosphere of crisis talks it would take the political equivalent of a miracle to make compromise likely before Friday.
And in that event, the goverments will then launch another rescue mission, publishing their own proposals believed to contain both a firm date for the handover of policing and justice responsibilities from Westminster and a mechanism on marching leading to the replacement of the Parades Commission.
The individual parties will then be under pressure to make clear whether they can buy into the package, or spell out the reasons for holding back support.
Without clear indications an acceptable settlement could still be found, Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness appears likely to move towards resigning as Deputy First Minister, immediately starting a seven-day clock towards an Assembly meeting and ratcheting up the political pressure on the DUP.
But such a tactic would also make it more difficult for the DUP to negotiate under duress and further reduce the prospects of saving the Assembly and Executive.
If the calculation is that fresh elections would only lead to continued deadlock, Mr Brown and Secretary of State Shaun Woodward may be forced to pull the curtain down on devolution and revert to direct rule — with an increased role likely for Dublin.
Yet the Governments still hope an eleventh-hour escape route can be found, with Mr Brown yesterday characterising the still-unseen blueprint as a “pathway” to agreement.
“We believe that we have proposals that make for a reasonable deal on the devolution of policing and justice,” Mr Brown said. “We believe that we have produced a pathway to agreement.
“We are not far away on any of the major issues in getting that agreement, but we want that
agreement to be one that all people can in the end sign up to.”
Mr Cowen said it was unfortunate that the discussions had not been completed but he believed “sufficient progress had been made to allow the parties to work together and bring matters to a speedy conclusion”.
“The hope and our preferred option is that that would be the result of discussions that will now take place here,” he said.
Mr Brown made clear devolution of policing and justice could be achieved “around the beginning of May”, with a vote in the Assembly being held as early as March, and said the parties had been asked to go away and discuss the proposals and come back to them tomorrow morning.
Mr McGuinness was incandescent. “We have displayed extraordinary patience over the past 18 months. We sought to persuade the DUP to be partners on progress,” he said.
“The decision by the DUP, at the behest of the Orange Order, to make the abolition of the Parades Commission a precondition for the transfer of powers flies in the face of that. It made reaching agreement extremely difficult and many are speculating that this was the intention.”
He said despite some progress on policing he was “deeply disappointed” a deal had not been concluded but “in fairness” to the governments his party would study their proposals. “But one thing is certain, absolutely certain, that citizens’ rights and entitlements cannot and will not be subject to a unionist veto or an Orange Order precondition.”
DUP leader Peter Robinson accepted the areas of disagreement have been narrowed, but said his party would not bend under the threat of a Sinn Fein walkout.
Still voluntarily stood down as First Minister, in part to concentrate on attempting to achieve a deal, he said the DUP would not accept a “second-rate deal” to suit “someone else's time-limit”.
“I think we’ve shown over the last few days that we’re not prepared to buy a pig in a poke, we are not prepared to simply take whatever is thrown at us, whether from governments or from Sinn Fein,” he said.
The main parties, the governments and the options they have left
The ‘pathway’ the governments set out yesterday contains potholes for all the parties. So what do they do next? Political Correspondent Noel McAdam reports
SINN FEIN
Sinn Fein faces a difficult choice with the very credibility of the party at stake.
Republicans historically play the game long but even they could be about to take the ball and walk off the pitch.
Frustration has turned to fury and it will be no great surprise if by the weekend Martin McGuinness has tendered his resignation as Deputy First Minister, automatically starting a seven-day clock ticking towards a crunch Assembly meeting, ratcheting up the pressure for a deal.
But the party knows this ‘torpedo’ option makes it tougher for the DUP, already vulnerable to the cold winds of Jim Allister, to deal. So come tomorrow the party could also put the ball firmly in the DUP’s court by signing up to the governments’ proposals, even if they do contain some pain for Sinn Fein on parades.
DUP
The DUP can ‘hang tough’, even into the challenge of another Assembly election, arguing it fought off pressure from two governments and refused to dance to Sinn Fein’s tune on policing and justice, while defending the right of the loyal orders to their ancient rights to parade.
But in almost any scenario in the days ahead the judgment calls do not get any easier for the party, already facing unprecendented pressure from the fallout over the Iris Robinson affair and continuing disapproval from its support base over expenses and double-jobbing.
Should Sinn Fein sign up to the governments’ proposals, which of course all the parties are already aware of, it may further destabilise the party if it simply rolls out the old lines — continuing to insist the conditions are not right, it has to assess the level of unionist confidence, and so on — and ends up being on the wrong side for the inevitable ‘blame game’.
Knowing if you stand your ground too long, you are not going anywhere.
SDLP
Its signals over the prospects for a durable deal over the last few days have been the most consistently negative. But there will be no comfort in ‘I told you so’ for the SDLP.
The party can lay some claims to fame, if and when the governments’ proposals are put on public display come tomorrow, particularly in diluting proposals on parading which would have given the Parades Commission its marching orders.
To repeat that phrase: more than any other party, the power-sharing structures at Stormont belong to the SDLP and outgoing leader Mark Durkan, the only chief architect of key sections of the Good Friday Agreement still in office (even if not for long).
If the Assembly is going down the tubes the political ground on which the party might find purchase begins to crumble also.
ULSTER UNIONISTS
Leader Reg Empey may have had a red face that the peace process was back on a life support machine with Prime Ministers flying in to hold MLAs’ hands, but it must have been an even greater embarrassment that, like the SDLP, the party remained sidelined for the most part during two full days at Hillsborough, only being called in from the tearooms for updates.
The failure to find agreement may however provide room for the party, now officially linked with the Conservatives, to argue a more fundamental review of the workings of Stormont is required. The UUP also has more reason to hold back on proposals the DUP remains unhappy with. And yet the problem lies not in structures but in relationships and the UUP knows it.
THE GOVERNMENTS
In one sense the governments can probably buy a little more time. If by tomorrow they are able to reasonably assess that sufficient progress is being made, it could in that context justify holding back on its proposals package.
London and Dublin want the political parties, however, to take ownership of an agreement so they will be hoping their strategy document sufficiently smokes out whoever is holding out on a deal. And yet making public a document the parties have already pored over falls short of a meaningful threat.
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Comments
26 Comments
A blind man can see that the 19th century Unionist mantra "NOT AN INCH" has had its day. Yet First Minister Peter Robinson, whose job is to LEAD persists in thinking that way which is unquestionably destructive for Unionism.
If I was a Unionist I would be embarrassed by this. I truly would. Pathetically I think he hopes that the Tories and OO will rescue him and the old order.
Where are the intelligent, capable, 21st century thinking young buck Unionists who can offer better hope to you people, and even, however grudgingly, nationalists ? They must be out there somewhere !
We in the Republic have more than our share of incompetent hicks with snouts in the trough who almost lead us to ruin in recent times. But at least THEY live in the 21st century and not 1690.
Posted by Evergreen | 30.01.10, 00:28 GMT
If the people of N.I. whould face the fact that N.I. is part of the U.K. which is part of the E.U. bearing in mind where you are as a small part of the pie with many colors at this time of history, your movement must be only foreward, not to the past for N.I. will move with time that waits for no one and changes all.
Posted by phl | 29.01.10, 16:54 GMT
I am new to this so sorry if this has been asked before...What will happen presuming the talks fail and the joint PM's proposals are not acceptable so one or other (or both) main parties quit.. etc. etc...
So we elect new minister's and say (for arguments sake) the Shinners become the largest party due to splitting unionist votes...
Will the unionist parties (DUP and the TUV in particular) accept 'Majority Rule' and accecpt a SF first minister?????
Posted by ColB.. NorthIRE | 28.01.10, 21:11 GMT
The staggering arrogance of these political leeches defies even the most blinkered logic. On BBC radio today we had the smarmy 'temporary' First Minister telling us that they know best. Telling us that no deal is better than a poor deal. How stupid is she and how daft does she think we are. Any deal is better than the self-serving we are witnessing.The vast majority of the population, excluding those who think the Orange Order has a right to hold the country to ransome, are incandescent with rage at the primary school antics of these charlatans. The Order is a private organisation and has rights but not the right to trample on the rights of others. It has not stood for election. The DUP are their lapdogs. Parading is simple. Let those who want to do it pay the full cost of it's policing. As for linking policing to an Irish Language Act, what nonsense. Why do people vote for these clowns? We are a laughing stock in the rest of the U.K. A chimp could do better.
Posted by East Antrim Unionist | 28.01.10, 15:45 GMT
we are outraged by this latest failure to reach a compromise agreement. why don't these people work to secure a safer and more inclusive society? what on earth have parades got to do with the central issues of justice or policing? no-one should be concerned that these matters should fall into "the wrong hands". the lord chief justice recently confirmed that nothing will be permitted to interfere with the independence of the judiciary and the operation of the judicial process. and only the chief constable, accountable to the policing board, is responsible for the direction, operation and control of the psni. so it doesn't matter a jot who the minister for justice is or from which local party he/she comes. to collapse yet another set of talks for what appear to be spurious and dangerously misleading reasons indicates a reckless disdain for the public interest and a contemptible disregard for the citizens of this beleaguered land.
Posted by Brian McCready | 28.01.10, 15:04 GMT
Education budget cut by tens of millions. Health budget cut by hundreds of millions. Jobs non existent and the economy stagnant at best. So the 2 main gangs "leading" us entrench their own positions even more. In other words they represent only themselves and their desparate bid to hang on to power while the people here are sacrificed - again. During the Troubles we died while they would not talk - and it is happening again as our Health Service fails and people die. Shame on you. These MLAs are simply not good enough to do the job we pay them for. Go.
Posted by Andy Mullan | 28.01.10, 14:53 GMT
I think it's amazing that the DUP have decided to link parades and then tell everyone how great they are because they can say NO to everyone, including Prime Ministers, they actually enjoy the feeling they get from saying NO and saying how hard they are, school boy politics and the thing is no one cares about how hard and tough they are about parades, is parading an issue that everyone is worried about ?
Posted by John | 28.01.10, 14:24 GMT
Are these people for real? Why should there be a peace crisis, after all these successful years? Why should Adams and Robinson hold the majority to ransom? Why should the ordinary people stand for this? Everyone should call a day of protest and go to the steps of Stormont, and tell the ministers- no more rubbish talk, make the deal, and get on with making the country a success, or else you are signing a death warrant. The dissidents will rise on both sides, so don't blame them. The ministers had all the answers, and opportunities to do their job, and cement the peace.
Posted by C-Realist | 28.01.10, 13:48 GMT
Journalists utilising the word disaster is playing into Sein Fein's hands.
Unfortunately, rather than talking, Sinn Fein are playing their usual game of withdrawal followed by meetings with Dublin and Downing Street, with the aim of pressurising the DUP into submitting to Government bribery.
Posted by robbo | 28.01.10, 13:45 GMT
I think that many middle class unionists who had leant their support to the DUP in recent years will also be 'incandescent' if this deal collapses over the issue of parades...
Posted by gracey | 28.01.10, 13:27 GMT
When will they ever learn?? Marching down a street is more important than the peace process and the lives of all Ulster folk? What a shower of misfits! Elected as the parades commission it seems because for years they have spoke of nothing else! There has never being discussions on unemployment, health issues for the young and elderly. March into the Irish sea at least the fish would benefit from eating you all !!!
Posted by Mike Irvine | 28.01.10, 13:11 GMT
Nobody should be trying to "smoke" anybody out. That simply is not doing the job the politicians are paid to do. "ancient rights of the Orange ORder" - that's a new one on me! The issue here is - is the OO allowed to continue to intimidate N.Irish residents with their military style marches and offensive (and sectarian) songs? Full Stop.
Posted by Barry | 28.01.10, 12:44 GMT
Why always teetering?
Posted by Dubai dan | 28.01.10, 12:36 GMT
It cannot be a disaster to end institutionalised sectarianism.
Posted by Malachy McAnespie | 28.01.10, 12:10 GMT
If these people really consider themselves a government then they should make bold decisions for the good of the people and not for their own good or interests.
Leading means sometimes having to make decisions which will not go down well with everyone. If Northern Ireland ever wants to be taken seriously as a nation then it is time these people at Stormont stop their bickering.
Posted by Richard | 28.01.10, 11:48 GMT
The purpose of an election in a democracy is to find out what the voters think through their elected reps. Why not have an Assembly election? The thought of the reimposition of Direct Rule is deeply depressing to me as a Unionist not only because it will bring back incompetent English ministers but also firmly establish the route to a reunited Ireland through an Anglo-Irish Agreement, Stage 2. Sinn Fein will also be the losers in the longer run as their raison d'etre will have been eroded.The biggest losers will, of course, be the DUP in the upcoming British general election. Who would vote for a unionist party which abandoned Stormont and refused to enable justice and policing to be returned there? As for the wreckers of the TUV, their death-wish for NI will be rewarded with oblivion - or worse, a trip to Dublin!
Posted by Dr David Green | 28.01.10, 11:38 GMT
Northern Ireland you can't do anything right can you.
I'm sure the world is fed up to the teeth with this hatred crap you all have in politics.
Get on with it................................
Posted by Big Tas | 28.01.10, 11:29 GMT
Just one word, Unbelievable
Posted by richard mahaffy | 28.01.10, 11:09 GMT
That the DUP are hanging the future governance of Northern Ireland for everyone on the parades issue is to all sane people ridiculous, but unsurprising. This is what happens when you vote in a party so small minded that many in it think homosexuality is as bad as paedophilia and you'll go to hell for dancing. They are and always have been a party of absolutes, adopting and reinforcing a policy of non-compromise on anything that wasn't explicitly in the interests of well off, rural, white, evangelical Protestants. Their contribution to issues such as health, the economy and poverty (including for working class Protestants) has been negligible. They have been voted for time and again for two reasons only, one - by Evangelicals because of their narrow minded religous views, and two - by working class Protestants because they terrify and manipulate them with melodramatic fire and brimstone rhetoric that reduces every issue to 'papism' and fear, and presents themselves as the only hope.
Posted by Graham Smyth | 28.01.10, 10:17 GMT
At least for the last few days all unsavory dishes from both parties have been taken off the media's menu. Perhaps this is what the present flap was designed to achieve !
Posted by Rottweiler | 28.01.10, 09:52 GMT
26 Comments