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Scottish independence: Key predictions and guide to the Scotland referendum results from each council

By Bill White

Scottish referendum predictions and guide from right across each council.

Well we’re all set for tonight’s coverage of the Scottish referendum results, which will stretch well into Friday morning, with the official result not announced until around breakfast time.

All votes will be counted separately by each of the 32 local council areas in Scotland ie there will be 32 separate results, and then the combined total result will be officially announced in Edinburgh, as the final result.

Thanks to Ian Parsley who produced an excellent synopsis of the results running order on his blog, and from where most of the detail below is taken:

10pm this evening: Polls close (although those still queuing may still vote). There will be no Exit poll – this is not surprising, as anyone undertaking an exit poll in this situation would need a lot of courage.

2 - 2.15am: Key declaration - North Lanarkshire.

Yes should win here. Indeed with over 6% of the electorate, Yes need to win here to have a chance of winning overall. Although, if the polls are correct the margin will be narrow – but then if the polls are correct nearly all the results will, should be, narrow either way.

2am - 3am: There should be declarations from Clackmannanshire, Moray, and Perth/Kinross. These are all smaller council areas and these three should be Yes although narrowly. Likewise Inverclyde, East Lothian, and Orkney should all also declare around now, and these three should have a majority No vote.

3am: South Lanarkshire and Aberdeenshire.

South Lanarkshire should be a good win for Yes, again if it is to win overall. Aberdeenshire, is slightly smaller than South Lanarkshire and again should be narrowly Yes. Of course, all this can vary even within regions within each council area.

3am – 3.45am: Declarations should then come in from smaller councils i.e. Angus, Dundee, Falkirk, Stirling and East Ayrshire who may all possibly go ‘yes’. Renfrewshire is 50/50 ie a toss-up; and East Renfrewshire should be for No.

3.30am: Declarations again from smaller councils such as Midlothian and West Lothian should be narrowly for Yes; then Argyll/Bute, South Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire and Shetland who (again if the poll projections are correct) should all go for No.

4am: Fife – This is a key declaration.

Fife has a hefty 7% of the total Scottish electorate. Indications are it’s hard to call between Yes and No. If it’s close by this stage, No would probably need to win here. Highland is also a large declaration at this time and should go for No, and North Ayrshire should follow soon after. Similar to Fife and No needing to win there if its close, Yes would want/need to win North Ayrshire if it’s close at this stage.

*At this stage ie around 4am Yes would need to be ahead if it is to win.

5am: Glasgow and Edinburgh - It goes without saying that these are crucial declarations.

Glasgow has 12% of the Scottish electorate, with Edinburgh on 9%. So with 21% of the electorate overall it’s obvious that these two big city declarations are crucial. If it is still close at this stage, for No to win, it will need to win Edinburgh relatively comfortably – although Edinburgh should be‘Nos best council area anyway. Glasgow could be close either way, and if Yes or No win by a comfortable margin in Glasgow then that could be the winning punch for the victors. Scottish Borders should also declare for No around this time.

6am: Aberdeen – Again another key declaration.

If it’s still close by this stage then this last declaration i.e. Aberdeen, with over 4% of the population, could decide it. This result should narrowly favour No. Although No may need to win here by a specific margin if it’s still close, going into this last declaration.

All the above timings and announcements should be approx. correct. What may not be correct are the indications of possible results and the estimates for Yes and No. You never know, the polls could be wrong, and it may end up a landslide either way.

Thanks again to Ian Parsley who collated most of the above via his blog – I hope he doesn’t mind me cogging it! In turn Ian researched most of the above via BBC Scotland so thanks are also due to them.   

If you’re staying up enjoy the fun and the drama.

Bill White is Managing Director of LucidTalk, polling partners to the Belfast Telegraph

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