45-medal haul predicted for Team GB
Published 19/09/2012 | 23:42
Team GB are likely to clock up 45 medals at the Olympic Games in Rio in 2016, researchers have calculated.
Scientists made the prediction using a mathematical formula based on the average number of medals that Britain has earned in the past and the likelihood of podium success of host and post-host countries.
The same formula three years ago predicted that Britain's medal haul at London 2012 would be 63 medals - just two under the actual number of 65.
The formula, developed by researchers at the University of Wolverhampton, predicts that the host nation's odds of winning medals will more than double - having the home advantage should bring in 2.05 medals for every single medal usually won, the model suggests.
The historical average of British medals is 31, and when multiplied by 2.05 the medal haul for 2012 was predicted as 63.5.
The authors, whose findings are published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, predict that the odds of a nation winning more medals immediately after hosting the Olympic Games increase by a ratio of 1 to 1.46.
So if the average medal tally of 31 was increased by this ratio, Team GB should win 45 medals at Rio 2016.
"This of course assumes that history will repeat itself and that the drop-off in medals won, seen with other hosting nations, will be mirrored by Team GB in Rio," the authors wrote.
They created the model using the medal tallies for all countries that have hosted the Games since the Second World War.
The approach, known as logit regression, takes into account the number of medals achieved before, during and after hosting the Games.