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Tories set to win with clear lead over Labour, says final opinion poll

A Survation poll had the two parties almost neck and neck as voters prepared to cast their ballots while ICM gave the Tories a 12-point lead.

The Conservatives remain on course to win the General Election with a clear lead over Labour, according to the final opinion poll of the campaign.

Ipsos Mori for the Evening Standard put the Tories on 44%, eight points clear of Labour on 36%, with the Liberal Democrats on 7%, Ukip 4%, and the Greens 2%.

Overall the polls have continued to paint a mixed picture as the campaign draws to its conclusion – with Theresa May’s lead ranging from within a single point to a double-digit cushion according to the final batch of surveys.

A Survation poll had the two parties almost neck and neck as voters prepared to cast their ballots, while ICM gave the Tories a comfortable 12-point lead.

Survation’s final pre-election survey put the Tories on 41.3%, with Labour on 40.4%, the Liberal Democrats on 7.8%, SNP on 3.6%, Ukip on 2.4% and the Greens on 2.3%

ICM’s preliminary findings in a poll for the Guardian put Mrs May’s party on 46%, up one point compared with a poll on Monday, with Labour unchanged on 34%.

The Lib Dems were down one point on 7%, the SNP up one on 5%, Ukip unchanged on 5% and the Greens down one on 2%.

A ComRes poll for The Independent gave the Tories a 10-point lead over Labour.

The poll had the Tories down three points on 44%, Labour down one point on 34%, the Lib Dems up one on 9%, Ukip up one on 5%, the SNP on 4% and the Greens on 2%.

Half of 2015 Ukip voters say they will now vote Conservative, potentially adding two million votes, or around 6% points to the Tory vote share.

The Liberal Democrats are losing voters to both major parties, with two fifths of their 2015 voters saying they will now either vote Labour (22%) or Conservative (19%).

But with Kantar Public the Tory lead was just five points, with the Conservatives on 43%, Labour on 38%, the Lib Dems on 7% and Ukip and the SNP both on 4%.

A YouGov poll for The Times put the Tory lead on seven points, with the Conservatives on 42%, Labour on 35%, the Lib Dems on 10% and Ukip on 5%.

On Wednesday, the Press Association’s poll of polls, taking in 10 results from the past week, put the Conservatives on 44%, seven points clear of Labour on 37%, with the Liberal Democrats on 8%, Ukip on 4% and the Greens on 2%.

:: Ipsos Mori interviewed 1,291 GB adults by telephone between June 6 and 7.

:: Survation interviewed 2,798 adults by telephone between June 6 and 7.

:: ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 1,532 adults between June 6 and 7.

:: ComRes interviewed 2,051 GB adults online between June 5 and 7.

:: Kantar interviewed 2,159 GB adults online between June 1 and 7.

:: YouGov surveyed 2,130 GB adults between June 5 and 7.

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