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Ukip's Newark surge but Tories lead

The Tories are still on track to win the Newark by-election despite a massive Ukip surge, according to a poll.

Research by Survation for The Sun put the Conservatives on 36% in the constituency, ahead of Nigel Farage's party on 28% and Labour on 27%.

But Tory backing is down by 18 percentage points since the 2010 general election, when disgraced former MP Patrick Mercer secured a 16,000 majority.

Meanwhile, Ukip support has soared by 24 percentage points and Labour has gone up by four.

The findings raise the prospect of a nailbiting last week of the campaign, with Mr Farage and his party trying to build on major gains in local and European elections to secure a Commons seat for first time.

The Liberal Democrats were on just 5% - 15 percentage points down from four years ago.

Some 72% of those who voted Ukip in last week's European elections said they would be sticking with the party on Thursday.

:: Survation interviewed 606 adults in Newark by telephone on May 27 and 28. Data were weighted to represent the wider population.

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