White voters shun Obama as Clinton wins West Virginia

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

By Leonard Doyle in Washington

"Like the song says, it's almost heaven," Mrs Clinton declared as she thanked her supporters at a victory party in Charleston yesterday. "The bottom line is this," she said, "The White House is won in the swing states, and I am winning the swing states."

But in spite of an almost two to one victory in the Appalachian mountain state, Mrs Clinton's campaign to win the White House remains quixotic. Her rival is far ahead in a race for the Democratic nomination for which he needs 2,025 delegates to win. That could happen as soon as next Tuesday when Mr Obama is expected to carry Oregon, while Mrs Clinton takes Kentucky.

Mrs Clinton seemed to acknowledge that reality when she said that despite the "dust-ups" on the campaign trail: "I will work my heart out for the nominee of the Democratic Party to make sure we have a Democratic president."

But she also made a heartfelt appeal to Democratic officials or superdelegates to push her over the top: "I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate. The strongest candidate to lead our party in November of 2008 and the strongest President to lead our nation starting in January of 2008 I can win this nomination if you decide I should and I can lead this party to victory in the general election if you lead me to victory now."

Mr Obama's inability to persuade working-class white voters in West Virginia to back him, even as he cruises to the nomination, points to serious challenges ahead in the presidential election. A large percentage of voters who backed Mrs Clinton said they would not vote for Mr Obama in the presidential race if he becomes the nominee.

Ignoring siren warnings that she could fatally undermine party unity, Mrs Clinton is vowing to forge ahead with her campaign. "I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard," she said as the crowd chanted, "It's not over!"

"I am more than ever determined to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard."

Mrs Clinton pointed out that no Democrat has captured the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916. While Bill Clinton won the state twice, the last two Democratic candidates Al Gore and John Kerry lost the Democrat controlled state to George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Many Democrats will be troubled by Mr Obama's poor showing with West Virginia's hard-up and poorly educated white voters. He could only attract over one-quarter of the white electorate. Two of every 10 white voters said race was a factor in their vote. And more than 8 in 10 who said race mattered in their votes turned out for Mrs. Clinton. About half of West Virginia voters said they believe Mr Obama shares the controversial views of Jeremiah Wright, his former pastor whom he has disowned.

The Republicans will also take comfort in the unease which working-class white voters are showing in swing states like West Virginia where the is a strong martial tradition. While Mr Obama has broad crossover appeal in traditionally Republican states such as Colorado and Virginia the Clinton camp says his Achilles' heel is his failure to connect with white and working-class voters in key swing states.

Mrs. Clinton was accused of playing the race card when she declared that she had more support among "hard working white Americans" than he did. Politically incorrect as the remarks were, Mrs Clinton fighting spirit appeals to those Americans who are financially on the skids. Three quarters of voters who said they were in economic difficulties voter for her.

The Obama camp counters that the White House cannot be won without the black vote and that the esteem of the Clinton name has withered in a racially polarising campaign.

Mr Obama continues to succeed elsewhere however. His message of inclusion and superb organisation, particularly in small states, which tend to voter Republican, has enabled him to tap into a flood of energetic, young and independent-minded voters and register them to vote. In the process he is generating an unstoppable flood of cash and his campaign has produced finely tuned research into the concerns of those voters he wants to reach.

All this has provided Mr Obama with an apparently insurmountable advantage in delegates for the party's nominating convention August, and West Virginia had only 28 delegates at stake. By one count Mr Obama has 1,874 delegates to Mr Clinton's 1,702, leaving him 151 short of the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination.

However, neither candidate can win without help from superdelegates – nearly 800 senior party officials who are free to back any candidate. Mrs Clinton is expected to make the case to the superdelegates that her success among working-class whites makes her indispensable to Democrats.

The Obama camp assumes Mrs Clinton will continue to fight aggressively in the coming weeks, but he is expected to be able to claim victory in the delegate race as early as next week. Mr Obama is also gaining ground among superdelegates for weeks and four more came to his side yesterday. He holds a narrow lead over Clinton among superdelegates with less than 250 still uncommitted.

Mrs Clinton has vowed to keep fighting for the nomination, despite calls to pull out and campaign debts of over $20m (£10m). "I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't believe I could be the best president for West Virginia and America and that I was the stronger candidate to take on John McCain in the fall," she said.

But one of her most energetic defenders, the Democratic insider James Carville, has all but declared that Mr Obama will become the nominee: "I'm for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is Obama will be the nominee."

Mrs Clinton's victory has helped her argument that she is the Democrat with the best chance of beating the Republican John McCain in November. Some of her supporters argue that, even if she does not get the nomination, she has at least earned the vice-presidential slot.

By racking up victories at this late stage, Mrs Clinton has drawn unwelcome attention to Mr Obama's weakness among working-class white votes he will need if he is to defeat Mr McCain. He gamely made a stop at a billiards hall while campaigning in West Virginia, but his efforts to woo the state's white voters disappointed.

He left the state before the results came out last night to campaign in Missouri, an important election battleground. Then he will turn his attention to Florida and Michigan, two states where he did not campaign because of a dispute over the primary calendar. He will spend three days in Florida next week, trying to soothe the feeling of party activists who found their votes for Mrs Clinton disallowed.

After West Virginia, five more contests have 189 delegates at stake. Oregon and Kentucky vote next Tuesday, while Puerto Rico votes on 1 June and Montana and South Dakota on 3 June.