Belfast Telegraph

Friday 18 April 2014

Egypt crisis: Chaos in Cairo raises the stakes for ‘powerless’ US

A supporter of embattled Egyptian president Hosni Mubarek rides a camel through the melee during a clash between pro-Mubarek and anti-government protesters in Tahrir Square on February 2, 2011 in Cairo, Egypt.

The chaos on the streets of Cairo has raised the stakes even higher for President Barack Obama — underlining Washington's powerlessness to shape events, and raising the spectre of the US having to deal with a close ally whose regime it has disowned, but uses violence to survive, temporarily at least.

As clashes between anti and pro-Mubarak supporters intensified yesterday, with the outcome utterly unclear, the White House “deplored and condemned” the violence, and expressed its outrage at the attacks on peaceful demonstrators and the media. It was “imperative” the violence stopped, Robert Gibbs, Mr Obama's spokesman, said, urging restraint on all sides.

In reality, those words merely underline the helplessness of the administration, at this point reduced to watching TV like everyone else, and keeping its fingers crossed about how events |unfold — in Egypt most immediately, but also in other friendly countries in the region, most notably Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

And they came at the end of a day in which the administration's reticence was so extreme that the White House Correspondents' Association issued |a rare rebuke for the lack of a |“substantive update”.

That was another sign that Mr Obama's room for manoeuvre has been further reduced, now he has thrown the weight of the US publicly behind the demonstrators demanding change, and signalling that President Mubarak's concession that he would step down at September's |election did not go far enough.

“An orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful and it must begin now,” the US President said, hours after the Egyptian leader had spoken on Tuesday.

The operative word was ‘now' officials added, making even clearer where Mr Obama stood.

Now, however, Mr Mubarak appears to have called that bluff.

In a final gambit to retain power, he seems to have called out his supporters on the streets in a plainly orchestrated attempt to dislodge the tens of thousands of protesters who for a week have been demonstrating peacefully for an end to his regime — presenting it as a spontaneous response by ordinary citizens who have had enough with the disorder.

“If the government instigated the violence, that must stop,” Robert Gibbs, the White House, spokesman said.

The move may be wholly cynical.

But the net result has been to leave the US scrambling to find a coherent response to events that change day by day, even hour to hour. Its basic problem though: how to preserve a key national security alliance in the Middle East, yet simultaneously get on the right side of history.

Some experts urge Washington to respond to Mr Mubarak's apparent defiance by cutting off the annual $1.5bn of aid and military support it provides Egypt. Yesterday, Mr Gibbs said the matter was under review.

Anti-American slogans have been conspicuous by their absence thus far from Cairo's streets. But that could change and bring closer the ultimate nightmare: a re-run of 1979, when the Shah of Iran, an earlier key US ally, was driven from power and replaced by the Islamic regime that has been America's biggest rival in the region.

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