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EU increases growth forecast

Published 05/05/2015

Eurozone economic growth will be stronger than previously expected this year thanks to cheaper oil, a weaker euro, stable global growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies
Eurozone economic growth will be stronger than previously expected this year thanks to cheaper oil, a weaker euro, stable global growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies

The European Union has nudged up its forecast for economic growth across the 19-country eurozone despite a much gloomier outlook for Greece.

In its spring forecast, the EU's executive branch said it is predicting 1.5% growth for the eurozone in 2015, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast in February. For 2016, the Commission has kept its forecast of 1.9% for the eurozone.

It said the eurozone is benefiting from a number of factors, including lower oil prices, a steady global outlook, the weaker euro and less stringent budget policies.

"The European economy is enjoying its brightest spring in several years, with the upturn supported by both external factors and policy measures that are beginning to bear fruit," said Pierre Moscovici, European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs. "But more needs to be done to ensure this recovery is more than a seasonal phenomenon."

Once again, the recovery is being powered by Germany, Europe's biggest economy. It is expected to post solid economic growth of 1.9% this year, followed by 2% next. Another standout is Spain, which is expected to grow by a healthy 2.8% in 2015 and 2.6% the following year.

One country seemingly going the other way is Greece, which is struggling to agree on a package of economic reforms with European creditors to unlock bailout funds. Without the 7.2 billion euro (£5.3 billion), Greece could face bankruptcy and a potential exit from the euro.

The uncertainty, which has grown since the left-wing Syriza party won January's general election on a promise to bring an end to hated austerity policies, has increasingly weighed on the Greek economic outlook. The European Commission now anticipates 0.5% growth this year, a full two percentages points lower than the forecast three months ago. For 2016, the Commission anticipates Greek growth to accelerate to 2.9%.

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