Mumbai: Experts play down al-Qa'ida link. Were killers home-grown?

Friday, 28 November 2008

A gunman walks at the Chatrapathi Sivaji Terminal railway station in Mumbai, India, Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2008.

Sebastian D'Souza

A gunman walks at the Chatrapathi Sivaji Terminal railway station in Mumbai, India, Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2008.

Two questions hang over the massacres, for which Indian security forces appear to have been completely unprepared: who did it, and why?

Security analysts said yesterday that, while the involvement of al-Qa'ida could not be ruled out after foreigners were targeted for the first time in a major Indian attack, initial suspicions focus on home-grown Islamic militant groups which have become a major concern for authorities.

Although the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, blamed "external linkages" and appeared to point the finger of blame at Pakistan, it was not clear last night whether he was repeating India's familiar accusations against its neighbour in the wake of every major terror attack or if he had firm evidence following the arrest of nine suspects involved in the shootings.

The festering sore of Kashmir, over which Pakistan and India have fought two wars, is ever present. One of the militants holed up in the Jewish centre in Mumbai contacted Indian television to ask: "Are you aware how many people have been killed in Kashmir? Are you aware how your army has killed Muslims? Are you aware how many of them have been killed in Kashmir this week?" He was said to be speaking Urdu with a Kashmiri accent.

Proof of a Kashmiri connection is likely to lead to rising tension in the subcontinent as these groups not only have ties with groups such as al-Qa'ida but also the Pakistani intelligence service, ISI. "There are serious concerns in India about the support of the ISI for militant Islamic groups," said a security analyst, Garry Hindle.

The Mumbai attacks were claimed by a previously unknown group, the Deccan Mujahedin, which is calling for the release of jailed Islamic militants. "At first glance, it looks like an offshoot of the Indian Mujahedin which itself arose out of the student Islamic movement," said Nigel Inkster, a senior analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies who is a former assistant director of MI6.

"We've been worried about the indigenisation of Islamist extremism in India," Mr Inkster added, referring to the new splinter groups springing up inside the country which are distinct from militant organisations imported from outside and accused of being sponsored by Pakistan.

Security specialists pointed out that targeting of foreigners and co-ordinated plans could be an indication of external activity. But they remained cautious about linking the shootings to the core al-Qa'ida leadership. "It can't be ruled out," said Mr Inkster. "There had been expectations of an al-Qa'ida 'spectacular' during the transition period in America, which has not happened. The CIA has been putting pressure on the core al-Qai'da leadership in Pakistan." US drones have been used there to bomb suspected militant leaders in tribal areas. But why would Islamic militants target Westerners in India? "Because it would be easier than in the US or Europe," he said.

The latest attack seems to be part of a pattern in which militants focus on cities powering the country's growth, such as Mumbai – where almost 200 people were killed in train bombings in 2006 – Bangalore and Delhi.

Following an unprecedented nuclear deal struck between Washington and Delhi, "Obviously India is a de facto ally of the US," said Mr Inkster. The attack "was designed to knock the government off balance and disrupt progress."

Mr Hindle, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute, said the shootings may have been intended to disrupt the US-Indian relationship. Judging by the security response, Indian intelligence had no warning of the arrival of the militants by sea.

It remains a mystery why the head of India's counter-terrorism squad, Hemant Karkare, led the response on the ground. Although he was wearing a bullet-proof vest, the 54-year-old officer, one of the leading lights in the security forces who took over as counter-terrorism chief less than a year ago, was shot dead in a firefight.

Before his death, Mr Karkare was praised for a breakthrough in an investigation into a blast outside a mosque in Malegaon which led to the arrest of a serving army officer linked to Hindu extremists. Only last weekend Prime Minister Singh called for the creation of a special task force to come up with a 100-day plan to fight terrorism. Three days later, the terrorists struck.

Survivor's story: Businessman, Gulam Noon

"I looked through the peephole and saw a man with an AK47 in the corridor. Amaz-ingly when I called the front desk, the duty manager answered. He told me to jam the door. After several hours a fireman took us down in a crane. The general manager of the hotel was waiting with a bottle of water. The staff were amazing, they stayed all night, risking their lives."

In the frame: The main suspects

Deccan Mujahedin

Previously unknown group claimed responsibility for the attacks, but this is almost certainly a name of convenience for another organisation with the capacity to carry out such a deadly and well co-ordinated assault. Security analysts dismiss the notion that a new and unnoticed batch of militants would have been responsible.

Indian Mujahedin

Formed from the banned Students' Islamic Movement of India (Simi). Members have received training and funding in Pakistan and have close contacts with Kashmiri militants. Claimed responsibility for a wave of bombings in Uttar Pradesh in November 2007. Indian authorities blame the group for the train bombings two years ago that killed 187 people. In May, the group made a specific threat to attack tourist sites in India unless the government stopped supporting the US.

Lashkar-e-Taiba

Kashmiri separatist group which has denied involvement but remains a suspect. Elements of Pakistani security forces have links with the organisation, which is also believed to have links with al-Qa'ida. Thought to be responsible for bomb attacks on markets in Delhi that killed more than 60 people in 2005, as well as an assault on India's parliament in 2001 that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war.

Al-Qa'ida

All the recent indications point to the fact that al-Qa'ida does not have a structured command and control and that most of these attacks have been carried out by local groups, some of whom say they had been inspired by al-Qa'ida.

Kim Sengupta

@all believers of conspiracy theories: No the terrorists didnt come on speed boats all the way from Karachi, they travelled in a fishing trawler named ´kuber until a certain point. and there are enough evidences to prove ur imaginations wrong.
@criticizers wo never held a gun in their hands and are commenting on Police, then remember all the police had was bolt action rifles, and are helpless when automatic weapons are firing, next thing is police is usually not allowed to shoot without orders.

Posted by Irwin | 31.03.09, 11:26 GMT

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According to Indian Govt. terrorist came from Karachi by Speed boat, the distance from Karachi to Mumbai is 500 nautical miles. I think terrorist deserve a credit to cross that much distance on speed boats whitouy the noticing of Indian Naval Force, where as the coast from end of the disputed maritime Pakistan-Indian boundary is littered with coastal cities, ports, fishing zones, off shore oil installation, Fixed Indian Naval radars, aerial and ship based radars and an active blue water force. Afer reaching Mumbai, some of them went to TAJ Hotel and The Oberoi Hotel. On the map you can see their location. They are not close to each other. Not a single terrorist were hiding his face, in pictures they were carrying guns and explosives, NO ONE SAW them. They went to Hotels if they now each part of the Hotels. How stupid they were going on a suicide mission with carrying their ID cards, stuff to show who they are, making calls to friend and families so that they can get into trouble.

Posted by Noterrorism | 07.12.08, 08:17 GMT

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One of the militants photographed, holding a gun is shown wearing
a Saffron coloured wristband used by militant Hindus. His features do not resemble those of Pakistanis. Furthermore the hotel staff has confirmed that these terrorists had taken alcohol & some Whisky bottles were found in the back packs of the terrorists. Do you really think a Jehadi will consume alcohol going on a mission knowing fully well that he was going to be killed.
Whoever has done this should be exposed, whether they are the faceless stateless terrorists or home grown ones playing a political game.

Posted by Sachibaat | 04.12.08, 01:53 GMT

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Why we should not know how many of them landed on Indian soil?

On the first day I remember seeing breaking news as 5 terrorist dead 9 captured...

On thirdday on NDTV highlight was 5 terrorist killed 1 captured at TAJ

CM Maharastra said there could be 20 to 25 in a press conferance on second day...

R R Patil is saying 10 9 killed one captured....

When we will know correct figure?

Posted by Shrikant Barve | 02.12.08, 10:11 GMT

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If we don't begin to stand up for what is "right" in our country (U.S.A.) and all over the world...we will be defeated by these terrorists. They have a passion, and they think they have a Divine Purpose...That's their distorted advantage. If we have no passion for God and what is right, we cannot survive. America wake up! Remember your roots, remember that "One Nation Under God" is what we were. Remember when we knew right from wrong and taught our children. Remember that the only way that evil can triumph is when good men do nothing..Like those policemen who stood by and didn't fire a shot! Our humanity is being stolen from us by movies, T.V. , distractions, and selfish indulgences. Open your Bible, read the Truth that will set you free...REad about the Wisdom of God...who promises blessings to those who honor His Law. As we set God outside...and permit the haters to remove the very roots of our lives...we are reaping what we are sowing. Stand up, and fight the good fight everyday.

Posted by Alicewondering | 02.12.08, 06:06 GMT

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Wait Lisa! Wow! Are you afraid? Islamic Terrorism and fanaticism Lisa; so there's extremists in every religious group, which means they're the same as the Islamic terrorists that blindly slaughtered people? Did you read the article?
I don't see extremists from any other group carrying out this type of slaughter ALL OVER THE WORLD? ASK YOURSELF WHAT THESE INDIVIDUALS ARE TAUGHT? WHO AND WHERE ARE THESE PEOPLE TAUGHT THEIR HATRED? DO YOU WANT TO LIVE UNDER SHARIA LAW? AND DON'T GIVE ME OH YOU'RE A RACIST GARBAGE, THE MODERATE MUSLIMS ARE TARGETS AS WELL. READ UP ABOUT THE THREAT AND DON'T BE NAIVE ABOUT WHAT THEY SAY IN PUBLIC.

Posted by John Pynchon | 01.12.08, 03:07 GMT

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Question...WHY? Is this caused by poverty, by the imperialism of the United States, retaliation for the death of 2000 muslim...what happened to this group of men that would cause them to commit these acts? The civilized mind would say there is nothing in this world that would justify these deaths, or the deaths in Bali Bombings, or the events of Sept 11th in the United States, or the Islamic Pirates off the coast of Somalia, or Decades worth of events all tied to "Islam" Dont be a fool. Connect the dots. Its a straight line. The line leads back to Islam.

Posted by WHY?????? Post 1 | 01.12.08, 01:24 GMT

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Looking at the photo map of the town and noting the distances betwen the targets of the attackers, one is led to ask, "How could ten lads get from one place to another so quickly without transport of some kind?' Surely, there must have been some help by others who hid in the shadows, sympathizers who melted back into the crowd once they had done their helping tasks.

The performance of the armed police who hid out and refuused to fight back is a disgrace that India will have to live with for years to come.

India was simply not prepared to deal with this attack and reacted in a shameful way.

Scotty

Posted by Scotty | 30.11.08, 15:56 GMT

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My comment is to Stuart who made the last post...Stuart we have seen exactly the same kind of incidents too many times. Mumbai has been hit with quite a few terrorist attacks ever since the Babri mosque was demolished by Hindu extremists (yah! there's such thing).

Everyone keeps blaming Islamic Fundamentalism!! we dont even know who these guys are or what their exact motives were...This could be the latest series of retaliation for the deaths of 2000 Muslims in the riots in Gujrat.

Posted by Lisa | 29.11.08, 16:02 GMT

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I think its important to come to terms with the fact that we have seen nothing like the force that is behind this, ever. Islamic fundamentalism is a something we need to understand and face up to. We cannot go on thinking that its not an issue we need to deal with.

Posted by Stuart | 29.11.08, 02:35 GMT

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Stuck in Mumbai and gun and grenade battles are raging on at the the Taj Hotel and Nariman House. The final assault by the Indian NSG will hopefully end the seige as soon as possible.

Posted by Paul | 28.11.08, 12:43 GMT

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Is the stadium name in the top of the picture a joke?

Posted by Aaron | 28.11.08, 10:46 GMT

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Excellent coverage and updated news. Thanks.

Posted by a. palani | 28.11.08, 05:26 GMT

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definatley cashing in on my dual nationality here! Get me an irish passport.

Posted by michael | 27.11.08, 20:00 GMT

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I am stuck in Mu bai at the moment, all routes out of the city by plane/train are not operating and the seige still goes on.

Posted by claire Co Down Co Down 72.30.79.99 | 27.11.08, 18:19 GMT

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Will Gordon offer the same kind of vigorous response to the one he has already shown in Zimbabwe?

Posted by T J McClean | 27.11.08, 07:39 GMT

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Think it's time to get an Irish Passport!!

Posted by Peter | 27.11.08, 05:59 GMT

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The BBC help line number to the F.O. is not working and adding to the distress of relatives. For twenty five minutes after the number was broadcast it showed as number unobtainable and now we sit here waiting in a queue. Where can we find out what is going on?

Posted by Ann | 26.11.08, 23:46 GMT

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