A crucial step forward has been taken in establishing a justice ministry at Stormont, but Chief Reporter Chris Thornton believes the wrangling is far from over

Yesterday’s deal brings the prospect of a justice ministry closer, but no timetable has been agreed

THE field for the Justice Minister Stakes narrowed remarkably yesterday. With Sinn Fein and the DUP agreeing to exclude all their MLAs — nearly two-thirds of the Assembly between them — from the proposed Ministry and Alliance quickly renouncing any intentions to fill that gap, only 38 remaining members of the Assembly clear that first hurdle of not belonging to a party that won’t take the job.

From those 38 Members of the Legislative Assembly eligible, remove the ones that the DUP or Sinn Fein or both won’t vote for, and the numbers contract even more.

If you consider that handing the job to an Ulster Unionist or member of the SDLP would be giving a boost to a political rival, you could see the DUP or Sinn Fein being tempted to exercise their veto to keep them out.

So could Brian Wilson, the lone Green member of the Assembly, be the default choice on the basis that he offends the least? Perhaps the PSNI better get ready to add carbon crime to their list of arrestable offences.

Still, the odds of there being any Minister of Justice improved dramatically yesterday with the announcement that Sinn Fein and the DUP had agreed on the format for the ministry.

After months of deadlock, the two main Executive parties announced yesterday that they had agreed there should be a single Minister of Justice, and that person should be elected on a standalone, cross-communty vote in the Assembly, not by the ordinary D’Hondt procedure (in which Ministers are picked by party leaders).

They also agreed that the individual would not come from either of their parties, which considerably reduces any balance of power questions attached to the post.

The agreement is a significant breakthrough, but it’s not the final one nor does it represent the end of the most significant obstacle: the timetable for moving powers from London to Belfast.

For both the big parties, the devolution of justice is is an important touchstone issue for their supporters.

Sinn Fein has long been in a hurry for the handover to happen, because they want this most visible of state powers to be run from Belfast (and therefore Ireland) instead of London (and therefore the UK).

They — with the support of the British Government — wanted the transfer to happen this past May, but the DUP delayed, because they had identified the transfer of policing and justice as a sore point with their own people.

Will the Minister find themselves under political siege from both of the big parties?

At election time a year and a bit ago, DUP leaders were long fingering that concern by telling voters it would take “a political lifetime” to transfer policing and justice. A political lifetime is probably longer than a mayfly’s natural span and shorter than a yew tree’s, but it’s about as imprecise a term as you can get.

That lifetime may now be drawing to a close, because yesterday’s agreement dealt with what was perhaps the key concern for DUP supporters: that a Shinner would get their hands on the reins of justice. Their nightmare remains the image of Old Bailey bomber Gerry Kelly reviewing the passing out of PSNI recruits.

Who will be standing in his place and when they will be doing it remain as awkward questions. There had been plenty of hints that the DUP and Sinn Fein hoped Alliance would take the job, but the party’s Assembly group ruled that out yesterday.

It looks like the smart choice for Alliance — to set themselves up as the “strong, coherent opposition” at Stormont, and then to jump at the first whiff of power would have been a difficult U-turn to discuss on the doorsteps.

Whoever does take the job will enjoy a high profile, but will also face a number of questions and difficulties. Is Northern Ireland getting the best person for the job or the least offensive? Will the DUP and Sinn Fein approve someone who will fight their own corner against them? Will the Minister find themselves under political siege from both of the big parties in the Executive?

Those questions, however, lie a fair distance ahead. Before we get to the wrestling match over who will actually sit in the Minister’s chair, there are other issues to be resolved. The timetable, as a prime example, remains unagreed. Yesterday’s deal certainly seemed to shorten it, but brought no precision.

And there are still numerous important details to be sorted — like whether the Justice Minister should be the 13th member of the Executive or if one of the other departments should be scrapped.

Much of that will be bounced around by the Assembly’s Executive Review Committee over the next weeks and months. But that could conceivably lead to another crunch.

Sinn Fein already anticipate the Committee will deal with matters quickly. The DUP were still emphasising caution yesterday — by saying they retain a veto over the identity of the Minister, they were implying they can still hold things up. They may be tempted to do so. The UUP said any move towards devolution of justice now would be “highly irresponsible”, indicating they’re ready to snipe if the DUP jump.

The remaining variance between Sinn Fein and the DUP plays into the bigger political picture, because it seems that part of the impetus behind yesterday’s deal was the Sinn Fein block on Executive meetings.

What’s less clear is whether that tactic will continue. If paralysing the Executive worked once, its spectre will undoubtedly rise again. Yesterday’s deal looks like an important breakthrough, but it hasn’t completely resolved the last stage of devolution. Is another political lifetime beckoning?