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With the South in freefall, would you vote for united Ireland now?

Monday, 9 February 2009

Irish economy 'will bounce back and lead Europe within a decade'

What price a united Ireland now? With every passing day of the credit crunch, it is a question which you might well ask.

Time was when even the most diehard unionist must have doubted how long Northern Ireland could remain within the United Kingdom. Those were the days, not so long ago, when we looked enviously southwards at the breath-taking wealth of the Republic.

All we could see were new millionaires and billionaires a plenty. A property boom everywhere. Motorways to match the best in Europe. Irish banks overflowing with profits. A small island state hit by a seemingly unstoppable tide of good fortune.

Look south now my friends and what do you see? The Celtic Tiger, having roared across the 26 counties and stood rampant at the gates of Ulster, is lost in the bogland of the recession. Celebrations of wealth have been replaced with an economic wake.

“The public coffers have been emptied, the developers and the banks are bust, and trade unions have little to offer. The game is up ? ” said Enda Kenny, the Fine Gael leader this week.

The Republic is borrowing at the rate of €55m euros per day, the equivalent of €4,500 euros per annum for every man, woman and child in the country. House prices have collapsed by 40%. Migrant workers are going home jobless. Unemployment is heading towards 12% this year. Even some of RTE’s top stars have said they’ll take a pay cut. The emerald jewel of Europe has lost its shine.

All of this is nothing for any of us northerners to gloat over, if only because so much of what goes on in banking and commerce these days is on an all-Ireland basis. The tills may be ringing up short-term profits in Newry, Enniskillen and north-west shopping centres but most of us on each side of the now invisible border between north and south cannot escape the island-wide consequences of such a dramatic downturn.

Many business people buried their heads in the sand at warnings of what has now befallen the south. I recall reading surprisingly optimistic prophesies from bank economists not so long ago, claiming that any property price falls were but a blip. Some of them should hang their heads in shame particularly in front of a man whom I’ve never met but whose predictions have proved uncannily accurate.

Professor Morgan Kelly, head of economics at University College, Dublin, has been nicknamed Dr Doom. Two years ago he was warning that the Irish property boom would go bust. I recall quoting him in this column as saying he had been unduly optimistic in predicting that house prices would only fall by 50% in a decade.

Needless to say his assertion that the property market in the Republic was unsustainable was not welcomed by estate agents and property developers. Many of them, along with the Irish banks, refused to accept his assessment until the slogan ‘credit crunch’ was written in capital letters on the gable walls of their offices.

The professor is now predicting that Irish house prices could fall by as much as 80% in real terms. Meanwhile Taoiseach Brian Cowan struggles to right the ship of state, imposing a massive pensions levy on public sector employees and forecasting that many more billions will be required in savings in the years ahead.

The reason why I ask the question — what price Irish unity now? — is because of comments made recently by one of Sinn Fein’s emerging figures, Conor Murphy. Mr Murphy has proved himself, unlike his colleague Caitriona Ruane, to be an adept Stormont Executive minister, articulate and on top of his brief in charge of Regional Development. He is clearly on the up within Sinn Fein and, who knows, might get Gerry Adam’s role as president one day. Any perusal of Sinn Fein’s website and of Mr Adams’s activities in recent months shows that he and the party are gearing up with a new united Ireland strategy.

In line with this strategy, Conor Murphy addressed a gathering at Westminster in December and said a referendum on a united Ireland could be held before 2016.

The fading international spotlight on Northern Ireland and the current economic climate could create the right environment to go to a vote, he said. Reunification was not a spectator sport.

“I actually think it could happen sooner than that in reality if we keep the momentum going when the economic realities and the political realities hit. We have received an awful lot of attention over the last 10 years with American presidents and other nations dropping in but that will start to wane.

“Then we will start to realise we are a small island, we have quite a lot going for us. All these small signs show we will ultimately have to take charge of ourselves.”

The 90th birthday of Dail Eireann was celebrated the other day but the big one is the centenary of the Easter Rising, little over seven years distant. We can expect Sinn Fein’s united Ireland strategy to intensify as Easter 2016 approaches.

Conor Murphy told his listeners in London that he was looking forward to a new border poll. This surprises me. While there are many factors beyond the pound or euro in our pockets which make us feel unionist or nationalist, it is surely hard to escape the current economic reality of Ireland, north and south. Our standard of living in Northern Ireland is dependent on an annual £9bn injection of funds from the UK Exchequer — a figure which the First Minister Peter Robinson said recently was not enough. The current pressure on his Executive’s budget, squeezed as it is in every direction, is proof that he is right.

If the people of the Republic were to be asked to replace the £9bn subvention to Northern Ireland, it would require £2,000 from every man, woman and child per annum for the foreseeable future to keep us in the services and welfare state lifestyle to which we have become so accustomed. This, from a country which is currently borrowing billions to keep its own head above water!

Of course, Irish nationalists and republicans will say that unity is not simply about money. In their eyes, it is about an historic righting of an age-old wrong. It is about building bridges and getting us all to pull together. It is about ‘a nation once again’ and ‘united we stand, divided we fall’.

Well, that’s as may be, but the economic facts of life today cannot be ignored. I would suggest the credit crunch has destroyed any hope of a united Ireland for another generation at least, if not longer. Certainly, even the most optimistic republican can hardly foresee his or her aspiration achieved, as Gerry Adams once suggested, by 2016.

So let me pose the question to you, the one million strong Northern Ireland electorate. Do you want a united Ireland? Yes or No? That’s what a new border poll would ask you.

As I survey the state of the Republic and Northern Ireland, I know my answer.

I saw it written in the red ink of the Irish government’s balance sheet last week as well as the squeeze on Stormont’s finances in recent months. Mine’s a No. What’s yours?

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73 Comments

As an Englishman with mixed parentage, I believe in independence of any of the countries of the UK, If they agree on it. Nationalism exists in all countries, whether in France, England, Scotland, Eire, Wales or Northern Ireland. I have had many Irish friends and flat mates at uni and religion never came into it or anti-britishness. The only thing he ever mentioned about Ireland was that he was a bit embarressed about how the Irish are so proud of winning the most Eurovision song contests. I assume he was catholic if religous, but am not certain as it was not an issue. I know that Britain has a mixed history, just like the US with it genicide of Native AMericans, the AMerican revolution was not about just a struggle against tyranny it about of settlers wishing to expand into areas of the Native Americans land against the wishes of the UK parliament.
Has anybody thought about an independent Northern Ireland but with close links to both countries. It is just a thought.

Posted by Oli | 26.08.09, 18:29 GMT

In Dublin they are about to commence the biggest single infrastructure development in the history of Ireland - the 5 billion Euro underground train link to Swords via Dublin Airport, featuring 2,500 park and ride spaces, and a train every 2 minutes at peak times.

This staggering investment shows the clear confidence that the Irish have in their future. It will create 10,000 jobs. How many out of work folk up here wouldn't give their eye teeth for one of these jobs?

This sort of ambition and belief in a prosperous future is totally absent in N.I plc. What makes anyone think that Dublin would want to try and sort out our Swamp-men with their lack of ambition, zero imagination, and backwater politics. Their trains are going places. Ours are rusting unto the tracks.

There are problems with the Irish economy, but they will get sorted. We keep voting in the swamp-men who cause ours!

Posted by plannisuarus rex | 24.02.09, 01:12 GMT

I have always felt a dose of antibrititus is every bit as repulsive as English Nationalism. Just why Irish nationalism isn't regarded as vile, intolerant, and disgraceful as skin-headed anti-immigration BNP supporting English oiks is beyond my comprehension. I hear many stories of English friends visiting Dublin or elsewhere in the south and experiencing, at best, obvious contempt my many and blatant racial abuse by a few. Irish intolerance thrives and there is no difference between it and the nastiness of the 'England for the English' brigade. I have no desire for unification with such people just as I have no desire for any more integration with Brits. It would be far better for our politicians to start behaving like real politicians, stop double jobbing, do some proper work, and do everything they can to make N.I. an economic success for every one of us. Nationalists and Unionists alike need to start scrutinising those they vote for and kick them out for those that will work.

Posted by Conal Stewart | 19.02.09, 11:22 GMT

With looking at the history of my country, and after having left it in 1972, during the early part of the 'troubles'. I count myself as proudly being Irish. Unfortunately I feel that given the comments of the above editorial and also the personal experiences I have in the past kept track of, I feel very strongly that the persons mentioned in this editorial being in favour of a united Ireland would still after all this time make be vote NO! NO! NO! Thank you for the opportunity of voicing my opinion. God Bless Ireland

Posted by Linda Harbinson | 19.02.09, 01:29 GMT

Hi Rick,

I'm not sure where you are from or where you live to warrant this comment?

I can only speak for myself and my group of friends, we all come from various parts of Northern Ireland, from east and west Belfast, to parts of Co Down and Co Antrim and furthern afield, but we are all very close and religion has never entered into our friendship.

Not only are we 'mixed' Catholics and Protestants in terms of friends, in our group alone there are four 'mixed' marriages. This impression that Catholics and Protestants hate each other is pathetic, a poor stereotype that was not helped by Irish President McAleese's comments about Protestant schools teaching their kids to hate Catholics like the Nazi's hated Jews, this brand of Republicanism is totally unacceptable.

I, like everyone else I socialise with in Northern Ireland, do not pick their friends based on religion; if I am out of Ireland, I don't care if you're Catholic or Protestant, you are a fellow Irishman, end of.

Posted by Steven 73 | 18.02.09, 09:08 GMT

why isit that irish protestants and catholics are best of friends, when out of ireland?FOOD FOR THOUGHT?

Posted by rick | 17.02.09, 12:22 GMT

Seamus Wilkinson and Gerry R, great comments, they are about respect and understanding of where we are now, allowing for the ideology of a United Ireland, but when the time is right, not on a forced agenda.

I am an Irish Unionist, not because of religion, but because of social, cultural and economic reasons; but that does not stop me voting for a United Ireland in the future. Unfortunately it is the very people who so dearly want a UI to happen that alienate me from supporting the idea now.

People on the island of Ireland are learning to respect each other’s opinion, some realising that we are all Irish for a start, others realising that they are Irish (unfortunately some cannot grasp that you can be both Irish and British?), but times are changing. St Patrick's Day in Belfast has become all-inclusive, Irish Dancing is popular in all communities, Orange marches are better understood, the Irish language is growing, we are maturing and things are patiently starting to heal.

Posted by Steven 73 | 17.02.09, 11:18 GMT

I am an Irishman living in the united states for the past 15 years and I am delighted with the progress that has been made through the Good Friday Agreement but I think rushing towards a United Ireland would be a huge mistake.

Firstly all the people within Northern Ireland will have to accept each others identity & the right to freely express that identity, without this no political settlement (Independant NI/ United Ireland, Federal UK/Ireland) will work. Secondly all the people of Ireland will need to move away from extreme nationalism & unionism, if we continue to get so upset at the sight of a Union Flag or a Tricolor what hope is there of us sharing one country together.

As a person who grew up in a traditional republican(not SF/IRA)/catholic background I would love to see a United Ireland, but it would have to be a United Ireland that works for & respects everyone, not the narrow minded SF Version.

Posted by Gerry R | 14.02.09, 18:48 GMT

Posted by Gary | 14.02.09, 17:55 GMT

Looking in at Northern Ireland from Athens I was amazed at Gerry Adams' intention to raise the united Ireland quesiton again. President Obama sees NI as a model for peace in the Middle East and will not be best pleased to see the work of his Middle East envoy undone. In addtion, won't Sinn Fein be the biggest losers if Ireland were to be re-united? The unionists would probably join one of the Southern Irish parties in a coalition but who would want Sinn Fein in a coalition? I believe Sinn Fein base their ideology and support on a false consciousness which their electorate has not yet cottoned on to. Perhaps the current financial crisis, which could well see Ireland expelled from the eurozone, will bring Sinn Fein and its constituency in closer touch with reality? In short, the original question posed is meaningless at present.

Posted by Dr David Green | 14.02.09, 11:50 GMT

As far as I'm concerned we are already living in an "agreed Ireland".
A UI will only ever make sense overall if it ALSO makes economic sense. I feel perfectly comfortable in my Irishness both north and south of the border (born in Monaghan, live in Armagh: only 6 miles between my old house and my new house). My children may well some day feel Northern Irish rather than Irish, or they may feel Northern Irish and perceive it as being a subcategory of Irish- who cares? I understand that some of my colleagues feel British and only British- maybe their children will feel Northern Irish or even British and Irish: again, who cares?- these things are not 100% static from generation to generation.
The only important thing is that we're governed well- and to me the closer govt. is to the public who elects it the better.

Posted by Seamus Wilkinson | 13.02.09, 19:25 GMT

This is a dead debate. Nobody wants a United Ireland. The population in the ROI have no interest in, or meaningful association with those in NI or vice-versa. Militant Republicanism (an overwhelmingly Northern phenomenon) has surrendered and accepts partition. Sinn Fein sells t-shirts and merchandise hailing Republican icons, but in reality spends more time with its "luvvie" friends in British new labour circles than it does in working-class Irish communities. Truth is that "nationalists" in the North prefer BBC/ITV to RTE, just as Irish people North and South prefer Jonathan Ross and Simon Cowell to Pat Kenny or Ryan Tubridy. Ireland will most likely rejoin the Commonwealth in the next 10 years. Peace at least.

Posted by Get Real | 13.02.09, 12:08 GMT

Let's ask the question this way. €60 to see the doctor. €100 euro to go to a hospital's casualty department. Are you going to vote yes to that? Are you going to vote yes to buying your child's school textbooks?

Posted by chipclub | 12.02.09, 16:38 GMT

JerryF, Northern Ireland is not a colonly, the majority of people in Northern Ireland are of an Irish heritage, and proud of it, the main difference is we recognise our adoption of British culture in terms of sport, language, art, science and democracy.

Most people in Northern Ireland watch the BBC or UTV by choice over RTE, only 4.7% of people in Northern Ireland speak or read Irish (2001 Census figures), the majority of people follow and support English or Scottish football teams, alongside GAA people here partake in British sports such as golf, boxing, tennis, rugby and hockey, we are immersed in British culture in everyday life and I can't speak for everyone nor would I want to, but I like British culture.

I think the British National Health Service is one of the best in the world, our education system is fantastic and our arts and leisure are very well provided for, so until otherwise told by the majority in the UK or NI, I wish people would leave us to live in peace.

Posted by Steven 73 | 12.02.09, 15:22 GMT

Steven, unfortunately there are a million different factors I’d like to mention and the BT only gives me 500 characters! But do you not think that if it got to the stage where nationalist parties had a majority of Stormont representation, it would be worthwhile to have the vote? In a sense it would be a win-win situation for Unionists – if the vote goes against them, well then that is democracy and the minority wouldn’t have the right to continue to impose the union with Britain onto the majority. If they win the vote, then they could categorically claim that there is not sufficient support from even the nominally “nationalist” side for a united Ireland, and it would be a hammer blow which the nationalist hardcore would not recover from for a very long time.

Posted by Chris | 12.02.09, 15:22 GMT

Jerry F, England doesn't want us, but then again,ask the average Englishman and he doesn't want Wales or Scotland, neither of which could survive on their own. In much the same way that the RoI and Greece and Portugal wouldn't be where they out without Euro billions before the boom times, the EU is stronger than the sum of its parts - so is the UK..
But in the same way that Falkland Islanders wish to remain British, a majority of people in NI do not want to leave the UK. For some it is an economic argument, for some - why should I give up my nationality.

Posted by Peadar | 12.02.09, 15:06 GMT

No JerryF, the bottomline is that middle-class non-Unionists in Northern Ireland and the middle-classes in Southern Ireland have no desire for a "united Ireland". They do not have the same yearning for getting "da Brits out", or indeed getting one up on "da Brits". The 'old war' does not figure highly in their every day lives the way it does some old boys and their brainwashed offspring both here in NI and in parts of south-west Eire.

They will most certainly not let the less financially aware nationalist working-classes of Northern & Southern Ireland dictate their futures for them because of some age-old and now largely irrelevant & tiresome "vendetta".

The union will remain intact despite the calls from a minority who believe England should go it alone ditching Scotland, Wales and NI in the process.

Posted by mickey | 12.02.09, 14:36 GMT

Apparently I missed the news that England's economy was booming. Things are bad all over. None of that means that Europe's last colony should remain. The bottom line is that England doesn't want NI. The choice in the future will be to join Ireland or go it alone.

Posted by JerryF | 12.02.09, 13:39 GMT

Sitting here in Scotland watching the SNP take a nose dive in popularity due to the Credit Crunch i do feel there are comparisons with "back home" .. The majority of people here just want localized decision making and self determination without all the bother of changing the roadsigns and inventing a new national anthem. Yes, when a country has overflowing coffers they can turn to frivolity like borders, anthems and Olympic bids - then reality sets in every few years...My impressions when i'm home seem to be that the feelings in NI are fairly similar, get Stormont governing better, give them more power and see how it develops. I also get the feeling when i'm in the Republic, West, East or North that the overwhelming majority of the population rank the issue a UI pretty much at the bottom of the list of pressing national concerns...Can we all stop harping on about 20th century political idealisms and get on with the more mundane yet much more important task of governance.

Posted by AD Crawford | 12.02.09, 11:14 GMT

Chris, I spoke of my friends in Northern Ireland who vote for the SDLP/Sinn Fein not all being pro a United Ireland, as I have stated before, many of them politically and historically dislike the British government, but see a future for a Northern Ireland governed by Stormont, therefore it's local rule with all of the benefits of being part of the United Kingdom.

As a Northern Unionist I don't really talk about politics when I'm in Dublin or Cork especially as I am normally there on business, that is why I asked you the question as to if you believe that the majority of voters would really vote for a United Ireland? In my limited experience, I agree, I do find the south west of Ireland much more Republican (becuase I used to play Gaelic and I join in the GAA converstaions, people often presume I'm a Republican) than the view expressed in Dublin for example.

I was being genuine as I don't know about FF voters, but if they are like SDLP/SF voters, not all will vote for a UI.

Posted by Steven 73 | 12.02.09, 09:00 GMT