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Horse first, then cart ... it’s time nationalists got real about unity
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
No political regime likes uncertainty. Talk of unexpected elections makes politicians twitchy. Meal tickets can be put at risk.
But it is uncertainty that is eating at the vitals of the Stormont regime.
The Robinson affair has caused a wobble. Players in the local political game have been reminded how flimsy the basis of the power-sharing administration is; for, when it wobbles, there is no depth of precedent upon which to fall back, no normal cut and thrust between government and opposition.
There is no opposition in the ordinary sense. Virtually all are entitled to be players. In the melee, leadership tends to be divided against itself.
Even at the best of times, the smack of firm government is missing. These are far from being the best of times.
From its earliest days Northern Ireland has been blighted by its status as a suppliant in the waiting room. In the corner, there is always that door, standing ajar.
Northern Ireland's first Prime Minister, James Craig confided to a colleague that he gave the border a lifetime of 50 years.
According to your preference, he was too optimistic — or pessimistic. But he had got hold of the heart of the matter: and that was that the deal he had bought could not be assumed to be permanent. Everyone knows why.
It was a patched-up device, based on a meandering frontier, fixed temporarily in 1920 and upon which a boundary commission deliberated for years, but whose report, though leaked in 1925, was never officially published.
Every device since has suffered from the same sickness. Each has been a pressured compromise, capable of being read two ways.
This has been inevitable, since a large segment of the people profess not to approve of the very existence of the state. Their goal is the sentimental one of a ‘united' Ireland.
This at once raises two difficulties; for, were the border to disappear from the map, it is very doubtful whether the resultant state would in any real sense be ‘united'. In fact the probable outcome would be that the current dissenting nationalist minority would be replaced by a rebellious unionist rump, with the old instability within Northern Ireland infecting the ‘united' state.
This dissent would be worsened and aggravated by the second difficulty: the political challenge posed by the need to balance the books in a 32-county Republic.
Figures obtained by the Sunday Independent last weekend confirm that, if this was going to be a formidable task before, it is now a chimera.
The figures, said to be a “best-possible-case scenario” from the Department of Finance, reveal that the Republic's national debt is due to double — to some £134bn — within the next five years, with one fifth of all taxes going on interest payments.
With the tax take collapsing in the recession, Cowen's government is borrowing £27m day to pay its large public sector labour force.
Cuts, cuts and more cuts lie ahead. Nationalist politicians north of the border refuse to face the implications of these figures. Economists in the Republic can be more forthright. They admit that, in a ‘united' Ireland, Great Britain would have to continue its subsidy to the former Northern Ireland for many years.
The characteristically pithy answer of the late Gerry Fitt, MP is well known: that “the Brits won't leave their cheque book on the mantlepiece”.
There would be ‘adjustments', of course. Tapered subsidy might continue for five or six years. But, politically, no British Government could continue it indefinitely.
That being so, nationalist politicians should start listening to their people, many of whom are realist enough to recognise that Northern Ireland is better off economically, for the foreseeable future, inside the UK than it could be in a ‘united' Ireland.
As a result, students of the statistics declare that a majority in favour of unity north of the border is a remote prospect.
I think we should leave flags out of it at this stage. We could do with fewer flags. That old sage, Emeritus Professor John A Murphy of UCC, bravely warned a west Belfast audience in 2004 of the foolishness of rushing fences towards a ‘united' Ireland. A new, shared society had to be developed first within Northern Ireland.
A ‘united' Ireland, he said, was simply incompatible with an unreconciled North.
That says it all. Horse first, then the cart.
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Comments
118 Comments
Steve: are you English living in Northern Ireland? I have read your comments and they are not very realistic. In response to any comments about Ireland/Ulster you always answer with the- Union with England is the only way. You claim you are not Irish what are you exactly?? I am Irish and I come from a Protestant Unionist background you have serious identity problems! Ulster is and always has been a ancient province of Ireland. When did you move it to England?
Posted by maggie Long | 03.04.10, 18:18 GMT
Excellent analysis by Eric.
Posted by Gerry | 26.03.10, 12:39 GMT
Mr Waugh I congratulate you on your realistic and optimistic article on the reunification of the islands. Finn McCool built his bridge to walk back and forth between the islands. Does that fable not tell us how closely we are related? I think it does.
When that point of view is in perspective, should someone have the opportunity to cheer for a day and then reality sets in? Personal beliefs aside we have to live together as it was intended. Third parties and fractional congregations should not control.
Posted by Robert David Wright | 22.03.10, 04:51 GMT
Why not scrap referanda and maintain the present system indefinitely - a Northern Irish Parliament with gentle overseeing by London and Dubln. Individuals would be welcome to keep pictures of The Queen and/or The Pope in their homes.
Posted by Harri williams | 19.03.10, 14:03 GMT
Gerry Adams is viewed as a "True Hero" in Massachusetts and New York. America will always support Mr. Adams and his political ideologies.
Posted by Chris | 18.03.10, 22:51 GMT
A Republic of Northern Ireland is the only true way forward we have the flag so why not join the Euro zone and get all the grants including road improvements we badly need here and all work together for a prosperous Republic cheers John.
Posted by JOHN. | 18.03.10, 09:43 GMT
I never thought i would see the day the people of Northern Ireland, Catholic and protestant alike would want a united Ireland.
Putting aside the past troubles, What is the benefit of a union with the South?
They have nothing to offer and everything to gain.
There would be no democratic choices just like the past, and they are in a sorry state looking for some sucker to pay off their debt and free load of the Uk. Why can't everyone live in peace. go south if your not happy up north. it's about time Gerry Adams and the like were retired, the south does'nt ever want them, people are fed up living in the past. So it is time the people's of Northern Ireland opened their eyes and realized there is no good thing ahead with Gerry adam's and company.
One reasuring thought is that GOD IS IN CONTROL and will allow them to go so far. then he will reveal them their true character for everyone to see.
Posted by iargue@shaw.ca | 14.03.10, 23:56 GMT
To Fair Play , you need to stop living in the past , blaming everything on the past.
History is in the past , lean from history , and move forward.
No one was saying that the past was utopia , so move on.
Northern Ireland was not created by people sitting around a table , eating chocoate biscuits , drinking coffee and looking for consenus.
Posted by Steve | 13.03.10, 15:36 GMT
Why is everyone debating about the possibility of a UI? It will never happen :) Do you lot really think the ROI wants the republican violent neanderthals joining them? They'd be afraid to say boo to them incase they got shot or blew to pieces!
The innocent, decent people of Northern Ireland know only too well how cruel and vicious republicans can be when they dont get there own way.
United Ireland?...Don't make me laugh hahahahaha :)
Posted by Roy | 11.03.10, 18:43 GMT
Billy
of course then you have the old Stormont to be put finally in its proper place.which continuous British governments failed to do for generations. to say nothing of the police force in the North.
Slan leat.
Posted by Patrick 2 | 05.03.10, 21:58 GMT
"Come on , take the blinkers off , democracy is a fantastic concept , but the Ulster Unionists did not fancy democracy Irish Republican style."
And the six counties were a successful democracy?
Posted by James G | 05.03.10, 16:27 GMT
I wanted to leave a comment praising the author for an insightful, interesting article, yet I find myself utterly disillusioned by the knuckle-dragger comments left here. As always, it descends into tit for tat Brits vs Irish, catholics vs prods, mine's bigger than yours (I don't want to know incidentally) playground bickering. I really do fear for the future of this land, united or partitioned. God forbid common sense and moderate thinking should prevail.
Posted by Beyond Disillusioned | 05.03.10, 12:22 GMT
ban this movie, ban this book, ban contraceptives, ban the catholic church first. will proudly wear my orange and green shirt with n.ireland proudly displayed on the back on st patricks day.
the people of the ROI know what to expect from "republicans" and will vote accordingly in any elections remembering..."you get what you vote for"
Posted by billy | 05.03.10, 04:26 GMT
of course then you have the catholic church to be put finally in its proper place.which continuous "irish" governments failed to do for generations. to say nothing of the police force in the south.
Posted by billy | 05.03.10, 04:14 GMT
Observer
For the record your UK is in a bigger mess than we are - and heading South (no pun intended).
Since you are obviously obsessed with money, I hope you paid your taxes when you condescended to live among us.
As for your abacus, you may find use for it, but we've actually moved on a bit from that.
Good riddance.
Posted by Fair Play | 03.03.10, 23:31 GMT
Observer (Steven 73?)
Let's bring out the abacus.
The Republic in simple terms was at about 65% of British GDP around 40 years ago. Not great but hardly 3rd world. As for WHY it was so, well lets not go there, but why do centuries of plunder come to mind, or is that FACT a "cliche"?
We then rose to 6th place in the world outside of the oil rich nations in terms of GDP. Britain meanwhile was, and still is, at or around 26th, and likely to drop. We have dropped to 22nd.
Independent estimates are that with a global upturn over a quarter of a million jobs - including many high tech jobs will be created over the next 5 - 6 years in the Republic.
But why should I bother. Frankly if the bank account, as it seems, is your sole criterion for judging a society, then we really have nothing to discuss.
Slan leat aris - Steve.
Posted by Evergreen | 03.03.10, 21:45 GMT
I lived in the republic from 1991-2007 and have seen a lot of changes, economically, socially, etc. People forget that Irelend was basically a third world country until VERY recently. For the last 2 years I have lived in Northern Ireland and I much prefer it. Seeing the state Ireland is in now economically, which is incidentally, something that any idiot with an abacus could have predicted 10 years ago, I for one am glad that NI is part of the UK right now.
Posted by An observer | 02.03.10, 16:02 GMT
What utter vacuous nonsense this man has written.
Listen, its quite simple the English have mad it clear they have no strategic, political or economic interest in Northern Ireland. They have internationally and binded in law their withdrawal (the GFA). S o unionism has a choice, either keep suckling on the mother that doesnt care about them or join their neighbours in an inclusive orange and green integrated Ireland.
Indeed its time unionists got real about the united kingdom.
Posted by Here we go again | 24.02.10, 20:35 GMT
Steve
Well bully for you. Now finally.........
Slan leat, Au revoir,
Auf Wiedersehen and Goodbye.
Posted by Evergreen | 23.02.10, 01:54 GMT
To Fair Play , I have nothing against the Irish Republic and I wish that country every success.
I think that a prosperous neighbour can be positive for Northern Ireland , economically , politically.
I and my friends wtach and hope the Republic wins in the World Cups , I think Robbie Keane is great.
I have met lots of people from the Republic when I have been overseas or on holiday , and they were good craic.
I am just happy in Northern Ireland , happy been part of the United Kingdom.
Posted by Steve | 20.02.10, 14:15 GMT
118 Comments