Is anyone really interested in Sinn Fein’s call for Irish unity?
Tuesday, 24 February 2009
The realists in the propaganda game always argue that there is no such thing as bad publicity.
They mean that there is no news story so bad that a resourceful operator cannot turn it to advantage. There are many sceptics; but political parties are not among them. Their faith in media coverage is what keeps them going. They know that, to be ignored, means death. I do not feel Sinn Fein is dying. But the indifference of key Sunday newspapers to their annual conference in the Royal Dublin Society last weekend will be giving them cause for thought. Unless my eyes deceive me, The Sunday Independent, the Irish market leader, ignored the occasion entirely.
The Sunday Times Irish edition managed a brevity, two short sentences, the copy measuring four centimetres by three, at the bottom left-hand corner of an inside page; although Liam Clarke had a prominent article — critical — on the op-ed page. But elsewhere, of agenda, speeches, debates, attendance, votes ... nothing.
To some observers this is no surprise. Sinn Fein, south of the border, fell on hard times in the 2007 general election, following a lack-lustre campaign. Gerry Adams came off worst in an RTE debate with Labour's Pat Rabbitte and Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats which attracted 560,000 viewers.
He appeared ill-briefed on the economic debate in the Republic. The party was on record as calling for a stiff increase in the Republic's prized low corporation tax, which has proven a powerful magnet to outside investment. Late in the campaign it got cold feet and it switched to a policy of no change. The party expected to pick up seats, introducing a new, younger generation of activists to the Dail. It ended by losing one — in Dublin South West; and failing to have Mary Lou McDonald, a much-promoted Dublin MEP, elected in Dublin Central. The party has been reduced to a mere four seats in the Dail and a recent poll put it on only 9% support, behind Fine Gael, first with 32, Labour (24) and the governing Fianna Fail (22).
As the Fianna Fail figure shows, times are dire south of the border. (‘Country's Fight for Survival’ was a recent Irish Times headline.) They are set to get a great deal worse when the gravity of the banking crisis is fully revealed. In such circumstances a party of protest like Sinn Fein would expect to pick up votes. It has not. Why? One theory is that Sinn Fein's Northern Ireland bias — which boosted its poll ratings at the time of the devolution deal with the DUP —is now a liability; that it is seen as a ‘northern’ party with little core relevance in the Republic. The Northern Bank heist in Belfast at Christmas 2004 (which Bertie Ahern attributed flatly to the IRA) and the Belfast murder of Robert McCartney caused further unease south of the border. The spread of open gang warfare among rival drug dealers in Dublin and Limerick has increased civil distaste for the gun in the Republic —which does not help a party with Sinn Fein's recent history.
In the face of this, and in hard times, one would expect a party cultivating a radical image to mount a considered programme of social and economic reform. Instead, Gerry Adams preaches about the evils of partition and the party's intention to launch a new drive for Irish unity. Conferences in Britain and America are to ‘marshal’ the political strength of the Irish abroad.
But this is talk from 1948 when I used to listen to old lags like William Norton TD and Sean MacBride TD holding forth at anti-partition meetings outside the GPO in O'Connell Street. No doubt Sinn Fein feels obliged to give the lash to the carthorse labouring to move the bogged-down unity wagon.
But are there many votes in it? I doubt it. Plans to commemorate the centenary of the 1916 Rising butter few parsnips in Ballymun.
As for partition, Ireland's historic problem, fundamentally, was always lack of coal, a commodity upon which its neighbours' wealth was based. Latterly, the Irish have tapped that wealth — on both sides of the border and with some success. The Republic's tiger was made possible by funds from the Germans, the Dutch and the British, the main net contributors to the coffers of the EU, while Northern Ireland is sustained generously by the British exchequer.
Without partition, the whole island would depend solely upon Brussels funds —which are now being sharply reduced. In this of all times, how unity would benefit the economic equation, as Sinn Fein claims, is a question without an answer.
Sinn Fein's problem is that the electorates — on both sides of the border — appreciate in the gut which side their bread is buttered.
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