DUP leader won’t be quick to follow wife out exit door

‘Team Robinson’ is not the force it was following Iris’ resignation. But his party will want Peter to hang around for a long time yet, argues David Gordon

Monday, 4 January 2010

Politics is a pretty brutal business. The announcement by Iris Robinson that she is retiring from public life due to depression was met with shock and sympathy.

But thoughts swiftly turned to the political ramifications for the Strangford constituency, the DUP and Northern Ireland more generally. One of the DUP’s big names is leaving the scene.

The last 18 months of Iris Robinson’s political career were dominated by controversy — over her anti-gay outbursts and past expenses claims. But she was nevertheless a significant electoral force in her own right, turning the Strangford seat from a UUP stronghold to solid DUP territory.

Her departure from politics has not been at the hands of voters. But opponents of the DUP may claim it as another sign that her party’s image of invincibility is fading.

The Paisley dynasty only lasted a year in power at Stormont and now one half of Team Robinson has fallen victim to personal problems. On top of this has come the unpredicted rise of Jim Allister’s TUV, producing a serious slump in the DUP’s vote in the European Election.

Devolution has not been an easy experience for the party after years of relentless election success. None of this should be much of a surprise. For one thing, politics is always more complicated and bruising when you are in power and taking decisions. The DUP should be able to see reasons to be cheerful over the forthcoming General Election.

It has a number of viable candidates to contest the Strangford seat.

Of the three remaining MLAs in the constituency, two — Simon Hamilton and Michelle McIlveen — are viewed as rising stars. The third, Jim Shannon, is a party veteran with a strong local profile.

Redrawn boundaries means Strangford now includes a chunk of South Down — a factor that could widen the field of potential candidates for nomination.

The name of South Down MLA Jim Wells has been mentioned by some as a possible contender.

The Ulster Unionists meanwhile do not have any obvious prominent candidates for the battle, particularly as MLA David McNarry has ruled himself out of the reckoning.

The UUP may also come to rue its lack of big names in other forthcoming Westminster constituency contests. It is possible that the absence of Iris Robinson from the General Election field may blunt anti-DUP attacks on the expenses issue.

Obviously, no one in the party is going to say this out loud in public, or even at a party meeting.

But jibes about dynasties and the ‘Swish Family Robinson’ may not hit quite as hard now.

The other main area for conjecture surrounds the impact on Peter Robinson of his wife’s abrupt departure. Her retirement may make him look more vulnerable, but that may actually enhance his standing in the eyes of the public.

There has been some speculation on when the DUP leader will eventually call it a day himself. It seems highly unlikely he will want to emulate his predecessor and stay at the helm of the party into his 80s.

Some Stormont watchers have wondered about his mood when having to leave his Florida holiday home for another acrimonious and frustrating term at the Assembly.

Mr Robinson has made it clear he would prefer to concentrate on the Assembly in future and vacate his Commons seat, but his constituency association is convinced he must stand again for Westminster.

Will that internal party debate be re-opened, now that details of his wife’s serious health problems are in the public domain?

The First Minister has been in politics and public life for decades.

It would only be human for him to think ahead to a quieter, more relaxed time a few years from now, where family always comes first.

Team Robinson is not the force it once was in Northern Ireland politics, but the DUP will want him to stay around for a considerable time to come.

David Gordon is the Belfast Telegraph’s investigations correspondent and author of The Fall of the House of Paisley (Gill and Macmillan)

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