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Trust your gut, not economic projections

Over my lifetime, the economy has run in cycles - three or four good years followed by the equivalent in bad ones.

But a problem arises when one unpredicted good, or bad, year comes in the midst of either cycle.

This sets up doubt, throwing the economy into turbulence. In that case, the whole thing becomes like a roulette game.

Bloomberg has drawn attention to the fact that none of the 17 economists it polled in 2013 believed that oil prices would take such a drop in 2014.

The same people also forecast a booming bond market and that share prices would slide. Three wrongs couldn't make a right.

Why are bookmakers among the most successful firms on the stock exchange? Simply because they are aware that people think they know everything, while really they know very little in the end: "The future's not ours to see."

My advice for success in 2015 is to work on gut instinct. Whatever your thought, or project, is, analyse it thoroughly.

And, only when you are completely satisfied, stick with it and follow it through.

JAMES GLEESON

By email

Belfast Telegraph

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