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Viewpoint: Has devolution come any closer?

Monday, 29 January 2007

Everyone expected yesterday's special Sinn Fein ard fheis in Dublin to pass the party leadership's call for active support of policing and justice institutions in Northern Ireland, but the sheer scale of the endorsement - backing from more than 90% of the near 1,000 delegates - was surprising

That was a testament to the work done by the leadership in preparing the ground for the vote. For, make no mistake, it was a historic decision, reversing an 86-year boycott of both the police and courts systems in the province and declaring clearly that there is no longer any stomach within mainstream republicanism for violent insurrection.

Yet, for all its significance and potential to change the political landscape, the vote, as of this precise moment, has not brought Sinn Fein and the DUP any closer to forming a power-sharing government. The reason is that the motion is conditional - it will not be implemented until the DUP agree to enter into government with Sinn Fein and policing and justice powers are devolved. That runs contrary to the DUP's declared position that it will not enter into government or agree to devolution of powers until it sees Sinn Fein's words of support for policing translated into action on the ground.

Support for policing is Sinn Fein's last bargaining chip and it is determined not to sell it cheaply by giving the DUP a blank cheque on the speed of political change. Likewise the DUP, which faces internal and electoral resistance to forming a government with Sinn Fein, is playing hardball. Neither party wants to go into a new Assembly election - which could be announced very soon - facing charges of a sell-out. In that respect, Gerry Adams is probably a lot more confident today of how his supporters will react than Ian Paisley will be of unionist voters' intentions.

In some respects Ian Paisley's ard fheis will be the Assembly elections. The pressure is on the DUP to respond positively to yesterday's vote, and that pressure is bound to increase, but he cannot risk a backlash from hardliners within his party and in the country by moving forward too quickly. As his deputy, Peter Robinson, pointed out, the political graveyard is full of unionist leaders who moved too far in advance of the electorate and then found themselves isolated and friendless.

However, in spite of all the understandable caution, the political impetus is still forward. A restoration of a power-sharing devolved government is now more achievable than for many years. There is still significant suspicion on the part of Sinn Fein and the DUP of each other's goodwill and sincerity, as is to be expected, but the hostility is thawing a little. Both realise they have to co-operate to achieve their mutual desire to be in government. The question is - how swiftly will that desire be consummated?

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