Will Sinn Fein force early election as cracks widen?
With Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness unable to form a good working relationship at Stormont Malachi O'Doherty argues that republicans may opt to go to the polls next year
Monday, 5 October 2009
That argument is that the DUP is hesitant to allow the devolution of policing and justice powers to the Assembly.
Martin McGuinness has defined the problem more starkly by saying that he does not, in fact, have a working relationship with First Minister Peter Robinson.
OK, where's the game plan? If you were Sinn Fein, what factors would you weigh up in your considerations now?
If Sinn Fein forces an election on the issue of the failed relationship with the DUP and the need to devolve policing and justice, it will be spared the need to fight the scheduled 2011 election on an SF/DUP ticket, which would be an embarrassment for them.
Fighting now, as the enemies of the DUP and with a prospect of taking the lead in the Executive, would assuage the huge doubts among republicans that SF is only in the Executive to be humiliated.
It will always prefer to be rattling unionists than stroking them for that always goes down better with their electorate.
If SF forces an election now and fights it on the prospect of achieving the First Minister's office for Martin McGuinness, it will potentially finish off the SDLP as well as routing unionism.
The SDLP currently doesn't even have a leader, Mark Durkan having announced that he will stand down.
Nominations for the succession have not even closed yet.
If Sinn Fein takes us into an election right now, it will make the case to the SDLP base that getting the post of First Minister is more important than preserving the SDLP and many voters will accept that.
And the SDLP might, indeed, helpfully air the divisions between its leadership candidates and squander its prospects further.
The unionist parties will try to pull together to urge the electorate to believe that the Union itself is in danger, but they may not be able to resolve their differences in time, if SF strikes fast.
The TUV will want to inflate itself on the argument that the breakdown of relations with Peter Robinson and the DUP proves that powersharing is unworkable.
Jim Allister will want to argue that stable co operative government with Sinn Fein is impossible.
The DUP, on the other hand, will want to pull in the TUV on the argument that the current priority must be to prevent Martin McGuinness becoming First Minister.
They fought the European election on the need to defeat Sinn Fein and save the union. It is a daft argument that the union is in danger but unionists tend not to see it that way.
The Ulster Unionists may also be tempted to throw in their lot with Robinson, to keep a unionist First Minister, but they will have to exact a price, for the sake of their dignity.
That price will, at least, be an electoral pact. The ostensible cause of this breakdown of relations between Sinn Fein and the DUP is the delay in devolving policing and justice.
Sinn Fein may fear that if that delay drags on any further it will be negotiating terms for devolution with an unsympathetic Tory Prime Minister. Therefore it must force the pace as best it can while Labour is in office.
But there are others intriguing hands to play.
Policing and justice will go to the Alliance party if devolved before the next Assembly election. And Alliance will have its price for accepting it.
This will probably include progress on the Shared Future policy which Sinn Fein is currently playing hardball on, though that might just be in order to save it as a card that can be exchanged at just such a moment in the game.
If SF forces the election and comes out on top, it may find itself in a position to demand that policing and justice be devolved on different terms.
It may insist on it being included in the running of de Hondt so that it can take the post for itself.
On the downside, Sinn Fein may consider that if it forces an election now, to take advantage of the divisions in unionism it may reinforce the hand of those unionists who oppose powersharing with them and make the executive unworkable.
Certainly, if Sinn Fein takes the First Minister's post it will want to flaunt its success and make Northern Ireland look a lot more Irish.
Expect it to seek an early referendum on Irish unity, for instance. Anticipation of that will set the unionists in a right flurry during an election campaign.
Yet, Sinn Fein as top dog may find that securing its dream goals, like an Irish Language Act, will be no easier then than it is now, given that it will always need to secure the agreement of a unionist partner, even a junior partner.
The current rumour in Stormont is that Sinn Fein will force an election after Christmas.
That leaves unionists time to consider how to pull together.
The calculation for Martin McGuinness's advisers today is whether the unionists can cobble together a strategy in the time available to them.
They probably reckon they can't and that it is safe to wait.
A snappier game might be to pull the rug out now.
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