RaboDirect Pro12: December make or break for Ulster
Monday, 28 November 2011
December is going to be a critical month in determining what sort of season it will be for Ulster.
A campaign which began so promisingly has turned into one which finds them struggling after Friday night’s disappointing defeat in Glasgow in which Brian McLaughlin’s men even missed out on a losing bonus point and, for a second week running, also failed to score a single point in the second half.
Currently they are eighth in the RaboDirect Pro12, nine points shy of fourth spot and inclusion in the play-offs. With nine of their 22 fixtures in that series already fulfilled it looks highly improbable that they will match last term’s statistics when they lost only half-a-dozen matches.
Already they have lost five, with four of those defeats inflicted by teams they beat last season — Dragons, Scarlets, Glasgow and Benetton Treviso. Bearing in mind the fact that they have yet to face either Leinster or Munster, both of whom beat Ulster home and away
last season, the enormity of the challenge to which McLaughlin’s players now must meet looks very daunting indeed.
December’s five-match programme includes three Pro12 dates, each against higher-placed clubs. First up is a Ravenhill meeting with Scarlets this Friday night.
As recently as October 29 they beat Ulster 24-17 in Llanelli and with their ranks boosted by players who shone for Wales in the World Cup the visitors will fancy their chances.
Ravenhill has not been impregnable this term as Benetton Treviso proved on October 7 when they became the first Italian side ever to have beaten Ulster. Anywhere.
Ulster’s other Pro12 December dates are festive season inter-pro affairs with Leinster providing the opposition at the RDS on Boxing Day and Munster due at Ravenhill four days later.
Chances of Ulster leaving Dublin with a victory on December 26? Very slim; they last beat Leinster there in August 1999.
Between those Scarlets and Leinster matches Ulster face back-to-back meetings with Aironi in the Heineken Cup. Here, too, they are under pressure to equal last season’s European exploits which saw them emerge from their pool to take a place in the quarter-finals for the first time since 1999.
Last year en route to the last eight they beat Bath at The Rec, just as they had the previous season when they failed to qualify.
But now, for the first time in the three years of McLaughlin’s tenure, they have lost a pool-stage match in England. And with them still having to go to Clermont Auvergne in January, progress in Europe will be difficult to say the least given that Ulster have never beaten a French side in France.
Last season’s two best pool-stage runners-up were Ulster and Leicester, both with 22 points. If that is the benchmark, Ulster somehow will need to find 18 more from trips to Aironi and Clermont, plus home dates with the Italians and Leicester. Another concern is that Connacht are within two points of Ulster who still have to visit Galway.
Certainly Ulster have been unfortunate with injuries — Jared Payne rupturing an Achilles tendon in only his third outing, Ruan Pienaar pulling a hamstring after the World Cup and Paddy Wallace needing surgery for tendon damage to his thumb.
So right now Ulster have no more margin for error. From now to the end of the season, every game is a cup final.
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